{"id":169754,"date":"2023-02-05T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2023-02-05T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=169754"},"modified":"2023-02-05T01:56:04","modified_gmt":"2023-02-05T09:56:04","slug":"bitcoin-long-term-bull-flag","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/bitcoin-long-term-bull-flag\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Attempt to Break Long-term Bull Flag"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Bitcoin Futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Bitcoin futures<\/a>\u00a0<\/strong>attempting to break long-term bull flag. During January, the price increased +40.61% of its value. The price rallied strongly during the past month; now it is attempting to break the long-term bull flag, but the first attempt will likely fail. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Monthly<\/em> logarithmic chart of Bitcoin futures<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-monthly-bull-flag-bull-breakout.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-monthly-bull-flag-bull-breakout.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin Futures Monthly Chart Bull Breakout of Long-term Bull Flag\" class=\"wp-image-169892\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-monthly-bull-flag-bull-breakout.png 1920w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-monthly-bull-flag-bull-breakout-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-monthly-bull-flag-bull-breakout-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-monthly-bull-flag-bull-breakout-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-monthly-bull-flag-bull-breakout-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>January candlestick is a huge bull breakout bar. This bar alone has broken the highs of the prior 4 bars. The price closed above the Bitcoin Futures CME opening price. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bull flag is above the major higher low of the long-term bull flag; hence, the resumption of the bull trend is likely at some point in the future.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>But the long-term bull flag has been deep and a fairly tight bear channel; therefore, many bulls have probably bought too high: they will try to close those bad positions during rallies. Many bulls might close at or around the 20-month EMA (exponential moving average), which is considered a fair price: 20-month EMA is a strong magnet.   <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 20-month EMA is a strong magnet and that January has had constructive momentum. What is constructive momentum? By that, I mean that there are open gaps during the breakout. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nowadays, the price is: \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bull case: The bear channel ends by breaking out the bull flag. The best the bulls can get is probably trade up to $30000 and then go sideways. The first reversal up will likely fail, but that does not mean that the price will make new lows right after. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bear case: The bears think that they are still within a small pullback bear trend. Now, they see a double top with August 2022 high and from around here they expect new lows. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Because January&#8217;s candlestick has no tail above, and it has broken above many resistances, sideways to up trading should be expected, at least until the 20-month EMA is tested.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bulls: \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>January is a bull signal bar, but there are many inconveniences: \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>First attempts to reverse a tight bear channel normally fail.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Possible double top with August 2022 high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trapped bulls around the June 2021 low, $30000 area and the 20-month moving average. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For stop order buyers, it might be a better idea to wait for a good follow-through bar (not likely in February).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or wait until there is a double or wedge bottom, that would mean that bears are failing to make new lows and on the upside there won&#8217;t be trapped bulls adding selling pressure during the reversal up. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears: Bears will sell a failed bull breakout after February, or they might place limit orders around the 20-month EMA.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> chart of Bitcoin futures<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-weekly-4-bull-micro-channel.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1920\" height=\"1080\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-weekly-4-bull-micro-channel.png\" alt=\"Bitcoin Futures Weekly Chart 4-bull Micro Channel\" class=\"wp-image-169898\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-weekly-4-bull-micro-channel.png 1920w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-weekly-4-bull-micro-channel-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-weekly-4-bull-micro-channel-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-weekly-4-bull-micro-channel-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-weekly-4-bull-micro-channel-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1920px) 100vw, 1920px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This weekly candlestick is a bear doji that closed slightly below its midpoint. It is the fourth consecutive bar without a pullback.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>During the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/bitcoin-testing-200-week-moving-average\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">past report,<\/a> I have mentioned that a pullback during the next 1\u20133 bars should be expected. A pullback during a bull breakout means that a bar trades below the low of the past bar. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The loss of momentum is evident, bull bars getting smaller, and here comes a bear body. Moreover, there are the resistances of the 200-week moving average resistance right above, and the August 15 high. The chances of a pullback for the next few weeks increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Before there is a bull breakout of the resistances, the price might test back to the apex of the final flag or to the CME opening price. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Above the 200-week moving average, there are resistances in the form of trapped bulls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The conclusion is that above the January high starts the sell zone. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Nowadays, the price is either: \n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bull case: bulls hope that this leg will grow at least up to the prior major lower high, which will end, technically, the bear trend. Thereafter, a trading range is more likely than the start of a bull trend. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bear case: bears expect a pullback starting during the next weeks, they hope that the pullback becomes deep and get new lows in the bear trend. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bull breakout has been strong enough to expect at least another leg sideways to up during the upcoming weeks.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Trading<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The current bar is not a good setup, neither for bulls nor bears.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls: the bulls might want a High 1 setup with a good bull close to catch up a potential move up to the $30000 area.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears: Bears want a micro double top with a bear bar closing around the low, to fade the bull breakout. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Bitcoin Futures Bitcoin futures\u00a0attempting to break long-term bull flag. During January, the price increased +40.61% of its value. The price rallied strongly during the past month; now it is attempting to break the long-term bull flag, but the first attempt will likely fail. Bitcoin futures The Monthly logarithmic chart of Bitcoin futures Analysis [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7271,"featured_media":169892,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1904,136],"tags":[223,324],"class_list":{"0":"post-169754","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-bitcoin","10":"tag-cryptocurrency","11":"entry","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/02\/bitcoin-monthly-bull-flag-bull-breakout.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Josep","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/cnjoseluis10gmail-com\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169754","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=169754"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/169754\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/169892"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=169754"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=169754"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=169754"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}