{"id":210081,"date":"2024-06-09T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2024-06-09T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=210081"},"modified":"2024-06-08T09:48:54","modified_gmt":"2024-06-08T16:48:54","slug":"weak-crude-oil-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/crude-oil\/weak-crude-oil-breakout\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak Crude Oil Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The weekly chart formed a weak Crude Oil breakout from the small expanding triangle. The bulls want the 20-week EMA or the bull trend line to act as support. They want a failed breakout below the bull trend line. The bears need to create follow-through selling trading far below the 20-week EMA to increase the odds of retesting the trading range low.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Crude oil futures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> crude oil chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Weak-BO-from-Expanding-Triangle.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Weak-BO-from-Expanding-Triangle-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"Crude Oil Weekly: Weak BO from Expanding Triangle, Weak Crude Oil Breakout\" class=\"wp-image-210231\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Weak-BO-from-Expanding-Triangle-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Weak-BO-from-Expanding-Triangle-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Weak-BO-from-Expanding-Triangle-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Weak-BO-from-Expanding-Triangle-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Weak-BO-from-Expanding-Triangle.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This\u00a0week\u2019s\u00a0candlestick on the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/commodities\/crude-oil-streaming-chart\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">weekly Crude Oil chart<\/a> was a bear bar closing in its upper half with a long tail below and\u00a0closing below the 20-week EMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/weekly-crude-oil-tight-trading-range\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Last week<\/a>, we said that traders would see if the bears can create a strong retest and breakout below the May 24 low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears see the recent tight trading range (prior 4 weeks) simply as a sideways pullback and want another strong leg down (with the first leg being the April 5 to May 8 move).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They got a strong leg down this week, but the market reversed off the low of its range. The long tail below indicates that the bears are not yet as strong as they hoped to be.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears have managed to create 3 consecutive closes below the 20-week EMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They need to create follow-through selling trading far below the 20-week EMA to increase the odds of retesting the trading range low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher, they want the 20-week EMA and the bear trend line to act as resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls want a retest of the\u00a0April 12\u00a0high after the\u00a0current\u00a0pullback.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want the 20-week EMA or the bull trend line to act as support. They want a failed breakout below the bull trend line.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They also want a failed breakout from the broadening triangle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a reversal from a wedge (Apr 22,\u00a0May 8, and\u00a0June 4) and a higher low major trend reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They will need to\u00a0create strong bull bars trading far above the 20-week\u00a0EMA to increase the odds of a retest of the April high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since this\u00a0week\u2019s\u00a0candlestick is\u00a0a bear bar closing in its upper half with a long tail below, it is not a strong sell signal bar for next week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Because it closed above the middle of its range, it is a buy signal bar albeit weaker.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar next week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the bears can create follow-through selling, the odds of a retest of the trading range low will increase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or will the bulls be able to create a strong entry bar by trading above this week\u2019s high instead?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the bears continue to fail to push lower, we could see the market do the opposite and push higher in the weeks ahead. This remains true.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market is trading around the middle of the large trading range. It is an area of balance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market is in\u00a0a large\u00a0trading range (Trading range high:\u00a0September 29, Trading range low:\u00a0May 4).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with\u00a0sustained follow-through buying\/selling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> crude oil chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Daily-BO-from-Expending-Triangle.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Daily-BO-from-Expending-Triangle-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"Crude Oil Daily: BO from Expending Triangle\" class=\"wp-image-210234\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Daily-BO-from-Expending-Triangle-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Daily-BO-from-Expending-Triangle-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Daily-BO-from-Expending-Triangle-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Daily-BO-from-Expending-Triangle-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Daily-BO-from-Expending-Triangle.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Crude Oil market broke below the expanding triangle on Monday with limited follow-through selling. The market then reversed off the low of the week from midweek onwards.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/crude-oil-oo-pattern\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Previously<\/a>, we said that the market formed a small triangle and is in a\u00a0breakout mode.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls see the current move simply as a deep pullback.\u00a0<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a reversal from a wedge bull flag (Apr 18,\u00a0May 8, and\u00a0Jun 4) and\u00a0a higher low major trend reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls\u00a0will need to\u00a0create\u00a0consecutive bull bars closing near their highs\u00a0and trading far above the 20-day EMA\u00a0to increase the odds of a retest of the\u00a0April 12\u00a0high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bear got a three-legged pullback\u00a0(therefore a wedge \u2013 Apr 18,\u00a0May 8, and\u00a0Jun 4) trading\u00a0below the 20-day EMA.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They see the move from Wednesday to Friday simply as a pullback and a test of the breakout point.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a resumption lower to retest the trading range low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They need to break far below the\u00a0bull trend line to increase the odds of retesting the December low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher, they want the 20-day EMA or the bear trend line to act as resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, the market is trading lower (since April 12) in a broad bear channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>For now, until the bulls can create strong consecutive bull bars trading far above the 20-day EMA, the odds slightly favor the broad bear channel to continue.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher, traders will see if the bulls can\u00a0create consecutive bull bars trading far above the 20-day\u00a0EMA and the bear trend line.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or will the market stall (perhaps around the bear trend line area or the 20-day EMA again) and reverse lower?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market\u00a0is trading around the middle of the\u00a0large\u00a0trading range\u00a0which\u00a0can be an area of balance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures The weekly chart formed a weak Crude Oil breakout from the small expanding triangle. The bulls want the 20-week EMA or the bull trend line to act as support. They want a failed breakout below the bull trend line. The bears need to create follow-through selling trading far below the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2836,"featured_media":210231,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1892],"tags":[325],"class_list":["post-210081","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-crude-oil","tag-crude-oil-futures","entry","override","shadow"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/Crude-Oil-Weekly-Weak-BO-from-Expanding-Triangle.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Andrew","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/andrewa\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210081","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2836"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=210081"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/210081\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/210231"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=210081"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=210081"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=210081"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}