{"id":231273,"date":"2025-03-02T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-03-02T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=231273"},"modified":"2025-03-01T23:57:43","modified_gmt":"2025-03-02T07:57:43","slug":"weak-eurusd-breakout","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/weak-eurusd-breakout\/","title":{"rendered":"Weak EURUSD Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: EURUSD Forex<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The monthly chart formed a weak EURUSD breakout below the trading range with limited follow-through selling. The bears hope to get at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the recent leg extreme low (Jan 13). The bulls want a breakout above the 2-month trading range followed by a measured move (based on the height of the 2-month trading range).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">EURUSD Forex market <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Monthly<\/em> EURUSD Forex chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Monthly-Limited-FT-Selling-Below-Trading-Range.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Monthly-Limited-FT-Selling-Below-Trading-Range-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"EURUSD Monthly - Limited FT Selling Below Trading Range, Weak EURUSD Breakout\" class=\"wp-image-231466\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Monthly-Limited-FT-Selling-Below-Trading-Range-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Monthly-Limited-FT-Selling-Below-Trading-Range-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Monthly-Limited-FT-Selling-Below-Trading-Range-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Monthly-Limited-FT-Selling-Below-Trading-Range-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Monthly-Limited-FT-Selling-Below-Trading-Range.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The February monthly EURUSD candlestick was a bull inside bar closing around the middle of its range with a long tail above.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/weak-eurusd-follow-through-selling\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Last month<\/a>, we said that traders would see if the bulls could get a strong entry bar and trade back into the trading range or if the market would continue to stall around the trading range low area, followed by a retest and breakout below the recent leg extreme low (Jan 13) instead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The EURUSD spent most of the time trading in its upper half (of its candlestick) in February and formed a pullback in the last 3 days of the month.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears got a reversal from a double top bear flag (Dec 28 and Sept 25) and a larger double top bear flag (July 18 and Sept 25).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a strong breakout below the trading range (October 2023 low) followed by a measured move using the height of the trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, the breakout and follow-through selling below the trading range low have been limited.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They hope to get at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the recent leg extreme low (Jan 13).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades higher, they hope the January 27 or December 6 high area will act as resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls see the move down to the January 13 low as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a failed breakout below the trading range and a reversal from a large double bottom bull flag (Oct 3 and Jan 13) and a wedge (Oct 23, Nov 22, and Jan 13).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They hope the market will reverse to the middle of the trading range (around the 20-month EMA).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a breakout above the 2-month trading range followed by a measured move (based on the height of the 2-month trading range).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They must create a strong bull entry bar to increase the odds of the bull leg beginning.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades lower, they want it to form a higher low followed by a higher low major trend reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, the follow-through selling following the breakout below the 25-month trading range is limited. The bears are not yet as strong as they hope to be.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The last two candlesticks have overlapping ranges which means the market is in a 2-month trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders may BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) within the 2-month trading range until a breakout with follow-through buying\/selling.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will see if the bulls can get a strong entry bar with follow-through buying.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or will the market continue to stall sideways or form a retest of the recent leg extreme low (Jan 13) followed by a breakout instead?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Most breakouts from trading ranges fail and odds favor the trading range to continue.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> EURUSD chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Weekly-DT-Bear-Flag-Bears-Need-Follow-through.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Weekly-DT-Bear-Flag-Bears-Need-Follow-through-680x383.jpg\" alt=\"EURUSD Weekly - DT Bear Flag, Bears Need Follow-through\" class=\"wp-image-231469\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Weekly-DT-Bear-Flag-Bears-Need-Follow-through-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Weekly-DT-Bear-Flag-Bears-Need-Follow-through-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Weekly-DT-Bear-Flag-Bears-Need-Follow-through-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Weekly-DT-Bear-Flag-Bears-Need-Follow-through-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Weekly-DT-Bear-Flag-Bears-Need-Follow-through.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This\u00a0week\u2019s\u00a0candlestick on the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/currencies\/eur-usd\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">weekly EURUSD Forex chart<\/a> was an outside bear bar closing near its low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/weekly-eurusd-bulls-need-follow-through-buying\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Last week<\/a>, we said that traders would see if the bulls can create more follow-through buying trading far above the bear trend line and the 20-week EMA, or if the bears would be able to create a follow-through bear bar as the market continues to stall (around the 20-week EMA) instead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market traded slightly higher but stalled around the 20-week EMA and reversed lower.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls see the whole move down (from Sept) as a sell vacuum and a bear leg within a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a failed breakout (below the trading range) followed by a retest of the middle of the trading range (near the Nov 6 high area).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They need to create a strong breakout above the January 27 high and the 20-week EMA with follow-through buying to increase the odds of the bull leg beginning.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If the market trades lower, the bulls hope the market will form another higher low followed by a higher low major trend reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They hope the February 3 low area will act as support.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bears see the recent moves as a pullback.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a reversal from a double top bear flag (Jan 27 and Feb 26), or a wedge bear flag (Dec 6, Jan 27 and Feb 26) followed by a retest of the January 13 low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They hope the 20-week EMA and the bear trend line will act as resistance. So far, this is the case.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want a strong breakout (below the Jan 13 low), and a measured move based on the height of the recent 11-week trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They need to create consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to increase the odds of a successful breakout.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So far, the market has traded sideways in the last 11 weeks.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bulls made several attempts to break above the January 27 high but were not successful.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market may now do the opposite and test the lower third of the 11-week trading range instead.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Since this week\u2019s candlestick is an outside bear bar closing near its low, it is a sell signal bar for next week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market may still trade at least a little lower.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders will see if the bears can create strong follow-through selling testing near the February 3 low area.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or if the market will trade slightly lower but lack sustained follow-through selling instead?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Most breakouts from trading ranges fail and odds favor the trading range to continue.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The longer the bears fail to create follow-through selling below the trading range, the more the odds will swing in favor of a bull leg trading back into the trading range.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: EURUSD Forex The monthly chart formed a weak EURUSD breakout below the trading range with limited follow-through selling. The bears hope to get at least a small sideways to down leg to retest the recent leg extreme low (Jan 13). The bulls want a breakout above the 2-month trading range followed by a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2836,"featured_media":231469,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1842,136],"tags":[281],"class_list":{"0":"post-231273","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-forex","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-eurusd-forex","10":"entry","11":"override","12":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/EURUSD-Weekly-DT-Bear-Flag-Bears-Need-Follow-through.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Andrew","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/andrewa\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231273","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2836"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=231273"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/231273\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/231469"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=231273"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=231273"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=231273"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}