{"id":234484,"date":"2025-04-13T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=234484"},"modified":"2025-04-12T05:22:39","modified_gmt":"2025-04-12T12:22:39","slug":"weekend-bitcoin-h3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/weekend-bitcoin-h3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin&#8217;s High 3 is ready to trigger"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin <\/a><\/strong>staged a remarkable recovery this week, rebounding from a steep past weekend decline. The strong weekly close signals the first compelling bullish opportunity since the 30% drawdown from all-time highs. Unlike stock market indices, which displayed scary bearish breakouts on weekly and daily charts, Bitcoin\u2019s long-term resilience stands out. Despite a larger percentage drop compared to other risk assets, Bitcoin\u2019s reaction to recent macro events reflects strength relative to its volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a2d27f3ba314&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a2d27f3ba314\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT.png\" alt=\"weekly chart of bitcoin spot for reference prices\" class=\"wp-image-234577\" style=\"width:702px;height:auto\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Ampliar\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Bitcoin Weekly Spot Chart from Coinbase for price reference purposes<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-1.png\" alt=\"weekly chart of bitcoin on april 12th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-234574\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-1.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Weekly Chart of IBIT (Ishares Bitcoin ETF)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Bitcoin\u2019s 2024 price action provides critical context for its current setup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trading Range and Breakout: For most of 2024, Bitcoin oscillated between $50,000 and $75,000. A breakout above $74,000 ignited a rally, with a measured move projecting a $100,000 target, achieved by November. This level acted as a magnet for profit-taking, particularly among institutions eyeing the psychological round number.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Topping Process: After peaking between $100,000 and $108,000, Bitcoin avoided an abrupt collapse. Instead, it formed a deliberate double top, with a neckline near $90,000. The break below this neckline triggered a correction to $75,000, a pivotal zone aligning with the 2024 breakout point and the IBIT ETF\u2019s breakaway gap.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Institutional Behavior: No significant spike in shorting pressure indicates large players are rebalancing, not exiting. The 30% drop likely reset fund exposure, and Q2 buying appears underway as portfolios adjust.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bullish Signal Emerges: A potential High 3 (H3) bull signal formed at the year\u2019s lows, showing conviction. Trading above this week\u2019s high would confirm the setup, marking the first credible buy signal since the drawdown began. However, this is a reversal setup within a tight bear channel, carrying lower odds of success but a favorable risk-reward ratio above 2:1. This is a setup with a positive trader&#8217;s equation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I\u2019ve noted in prior reports that early April could spark a bull leg, driven by technical support at the weekly breakout point and fundamental buying from institutions rebalancing for Q2. The H3 setup appeals to risk-tolerant traders. For trend-followers like me, I\u2019d wait for a breakout after price compression or staying near all-time highs before committing. What\u2019s your threshold for entering this market?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-2.png\" alt=\"daily chart of bitcoin on april 12th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-234571\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-2.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-2-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-2-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily chart of IBIT ETF<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bear Channel Dynamics: Since the double top, Bitcoin has traded in a bear channel. However, the channel lacks conviction. Strong bear bars or IBIT gap downs often met sideways-to-up follow-through, signaling weak selling pressure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Major Support Tested: Price reached a critical support at the 200-day simple moving average on IBIT (or 365-day SMA on Bitcoin\u2019s spot chart). A robust rebound from this level validated its significance. Are you tracking these moving averages as potential entry points?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Successful Strategy: In a prior report, I suggested buying at this moving average with a 5% stop loss and a 10% profit target. On the spot chart, this setup delivered, hitting the profit target without triggering the stop. This success emboldens bulls.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls Gain Momentum: Bulls are now profiting by buying dips, discouraging sellers who see stronger demand at supports. Bears, aware of trapped bulls near the bear gap, may prefer to sell higher, likely targeting levels where earlier buyers are underwater.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Two paths are nowadays likely: an accumulation phase before the long-term uptrend resumes, or a bull leg within a $70,000\u2013$110,000 trading range. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weekly Setup: The H3 bull signal offers a high-reward, low-probability reversal trade. Confirm with a break above this week\u2019s high, targeting a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio. Risk-averse traders should wait for a breakout above all-time highs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Daily Opportunity: Buying dips at the 200-day SMA (or 365-day SMA on spot) remains effective, as shown by recent gains. Set tight stops to manage risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market Psychology: Bulls are gaining confidence, while bears may hold off until higher levels. Monitor for signs of accumulation or range-bound action.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Broader Context: Bitcoin\u2019s resilience compared to equities and its potential convergence with gold signal long-term strength. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>What\u2019s your take on Bitcoin\u2019s next move? Are you buying the dip, waiting for confirmation, or eyeing a different setup? Share your strategies in the comments to spark discussion. If this report sharpened your perspective, pass it along to fellow traders\u2014let\u2019s grow our edge together.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all the weekend reports on the <a class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Bitcoin Bitcoin staged a remarkable recovery this week, rebounding from a steep past weekend decline. The strong weekly close signals the first compelling bullish opportunity since the 30% drawdown from all-time highs. Unlike stock market indices, which displayed scary bearish breakouts on weekly and daily charts, Bitcoin\u2019s long-term resilience stands out. Despite a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7271,"featured_media":234574,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1904,136],"tags":[223,324],"class_list":{"0":"post-234484","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-bitcoin","10":"tag-cryptocurrency","11":"entry","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/06\/20250412-BITCOIN-REPORT-1.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Josep","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/cnjoseluis10gmail-com\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=234484"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/234484\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/234574"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=234484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=234484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=234484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}