{"id":237049,"date":"2025-05-18T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-05-18T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=237049"},"modified":"2025-05-17T00:27:47","modified_gmt":"2025-05-17T07:27:47","slug":"bitcoin-2025-cup-and-handle-vs-2021-cup-and-handle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/bitcoin-2025-cup-and-handle-vs-2021-cup-and-handle\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin 2025 Cup and Handle VS 2021 Cup and Handle"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin <\/a><\/strong>is near all-time highs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Yet, we don\u2019t see signs of euphoria.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This is rare when price reaches such key areas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT.png\" alt=\"weekly chart of bitcoin on may 16th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-237090\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A cup and handle is forming. A cup and handle is &#8220;U&#8221; form with a pullback on the right side of the U.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>People will soon compare it with the 2021&#8217;s cup and handle structure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>That comparison may look valid for beginners, they will probably expect a catastrophic drawdown from there, they remember the 80% drawdown from 2021. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Professional analysis shows critical differences. 2021 vs 2025: Key Contrasts\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pre-cup rally\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2021: Breakout was parabolic. Price surged 5x from the Covid pattern. It more than tripled in price if measured from prior all-time highs. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2025: Breakout was measured. The move from $74,000 to $108,000 was moderate in comparison, it even did not double.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Drawdown magnitude\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2021: A 50% drop after forming the cup.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2025: Only a 30% pullback, followed by strong demand.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bear breakout behavior\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2021: Aggressive selling, weak bounce.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2025: Weak selling, followed by a powerful reversal.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Leg structure\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2021: First leg up was soft. The second leg was climatic.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2025: First leg already reversed almost the full drop. Strong momentum.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sentiment and crowd psychology\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2021: Hype peaked. \u201cTo the moon\u201d memes flooded social media. Retail interest exploded. Fear of Missing Out.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2025: Calm environment. Few outside the trading world are paying attention.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Handle or Not Yet?\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Right now, the cup is clear.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The handle is not in place.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>To qualify as a handle, we need some form of a Breakout Mode Pattern, a pause that gives traders a chance to enter with a defined risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This is essential for trade planning.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Without a price contraction, risk is too wide.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Current stop distance: about 30%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So, you may need an additional 30% to just structure a 1:1 trade, with a 50% chance of happening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Professionals are not trading when trader&#8217;s equation is not positive.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If a handle appears, traders will buy the breakout of the handle and place their stop below the handle low. The handle low may be as much as 10% from the entry point.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>So they may find an opportunity to structure a 40% chance swing of a 2:1 reward-to-risk ratio.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If no handle forms and price breaks out cleanly, they will wait for a pullback before entering.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-1.png\" alt=\"daily chart of bitcoin on may 16th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-237087\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-1.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Context and Structure\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Broad bear channel from all-time highs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bear breakouts failed to follow through<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At $75,000:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Re-tested breakout point of 2024&#8217;s range<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Filled 2024\u2019s IBIT gap<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Touched 365-day EMA<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Then:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Breakout above 30-day EMA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Breakout above neckline of double bottom ($90,000)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$100,000 tested and broken<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We expected a leg two move.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What we got was a tight bull channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Is this sustainable?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Who is buying now?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The breakout looks exhausted.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retail traders may be chasing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Professionals are not chasing breakouts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want structure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They look for consolidation or to buy at levels where risk is defined. This isn\u2019t it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What Are Professionals Doing?\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>They\u2019re waiting.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Two possible scenarios this next week:<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Test to the upside toward the all-time highs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Test to the downside toward the 30-day EMA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Most will not trade from here.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Bulls want a pullback.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>They want to see weak hands shaken out.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>That gives them better risk\/reward.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Some might trade options. Practical Options Strategy:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Short a put spread (long) at:<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$100K, $95K, $90K, $85K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Take profits:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After a $5,000 move up<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Or if volatility drops sharply right after<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Final Thoughts\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>If you see a breakout mode pattern or a proper handle, plan your trade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Always define risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price is bullish, but structure risk matters more.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Share\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Engage in the comments section! \u00bfWhat do you see in the 2025 VS 2021 comparison?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u00bfDo you think there is hype around bitcoin or the crypto space as there was in 2021?<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can access all the weekend reports on the <a class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Bitcoin Bitcoin The Weekly chart of Bitcoin The Daily chart of Bitcoin Market analysis reports archive You can access all the weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7271,"featured_media":237090,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1904,136],"tags":[223,324],"class_list":["post-237049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","category-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency","entry","override","shadow"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/20250516-BITCOIN-REPORT.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Josep","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/cnjoseluis10gmail-com\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/237049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=237049"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/237049\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/237090"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=237049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=237049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=237049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}