{"id":241430,"date":"2025-06-22T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-22T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=241430"},"modified":"2025-06-21T07:52:52","modified_gmt":"2025-06-21T14:52:52","slug":"bitcoin-weak-low-2-after-strong-bull-leg","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/bitcoin-weak-low-2-after-strong-bull-leg\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Weak Low 2 after Strong Bull Leg"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin <\/a><\/strong>triggered a Low 2 setup on the weekly chart. The Low 2 setup is also the Handle of a Cup and Handle Pattern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a5eba24332c3&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a5eba24332c3\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT.png\" alt=\"Weekly Bitcoin Spot chart on June 20th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-241628\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Weekly Bitcoin Spot chart on June 20th 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In 2024, Bitcoin spent approximately 8 months in a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price broke out above the range\u2019s high and completed a measured move up.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A double top pattern formed, followed by a sharp reversal in early 2025.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The reversal included a large bear surprise bar, signaling the market entered an &#8220;always in short&#8221; phase.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Based on the strength of that bar, a second leg sideways to down was anticipated.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, downside follow-through was limited due to:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A large tail below the close of the previous bar, indicating buying pressure.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price action returning into the double top region before bear surprise and closing the bear breakout gap.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Support was expected around the 2024 breakout point, which coincided with the 12-month moving average\u2014a key confluence zone.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bear surprise occurred in a weak context for bears.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Additionally, institutional rebalancing flows were expected around Q1 2025:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Price was nearly 30% down from the previous quarter.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This was likely to trigger dollar inflows, reinforcing the technical thesis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A legit High 3 setup formed, a classic pullback pattern.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A few weeks later, a strong bull bar broke the 3-month moving average, flipping the market from &#8220;always in short&#8221; to &#8220;always in long&#8221;.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Then the market fully recovered from the bearish drawdown.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The price action completed a cup and handle pattern.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets tend to resist behavioral shifts; once the shift happens, reversal is often difficult.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This implies the first pullback in this new bull leg is likely to fail to reverse it.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market has since formed a sideways-to-down pullback, with:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A Low 2 setup forming last week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Low 2 triggered this week, but:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Given the strong bull leg context, bearish odds are weak.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The trader\u2019s equation currently does not favor bears.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls aim for a bull breakout of the pullback:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>There is a measured move target near $120,000 from a higher timeframe pattern.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Aggressive bulls might buy the Low 2 using limit orders and scale in lower\u2014potentially down to a 50% pullback, provided the context doesn\u2019t turn hostile.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, a 50% retracement of the bull leg would:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Undermine the bull trend thesis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increase the likelihood of a trading range market cycle dominating.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Currently, the market is in a tight bull channel:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It will either continue upward into a new bull leg or transition into a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Other scenarios are unlikely given current conditions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bull strategies remain easier to execute than bear ones.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> chart of Bitcoin<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a5eba24344e1&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a5eba24344e1\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT-1.png\" alt=\"Daily Bitcoin Spot chart on June 20th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-241625\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT-1.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT-1-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily Bitcoin Spot chart on June 20th 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A spike and channel bull trend formed initially.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eventually, the lower trend line of the bull channel was broken.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite the breakdown, a bear trend was not expected:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>After strong bull trends, markets usually enter trading ranges, not bear trends.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Currently, price is in a developed trading range, characterized by:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>An initial bear leg.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A subsequent bull leg.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A current bear leg\u2014forming a three-leg structure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>80% of trading range breakouts fail, suggesting:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A breakdown and measured move down from the third leg has low probability.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A measured move down is being shown on the chart (based on the bull leg high), but:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>It is unlikely to succeed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weak bears may still hope for it.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Just below the current trading range low lies:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>A bull breakaway gap (BO Gap)\u2014an area bulls previously defended.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 30-day moving average is nearly flat:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Traders appear to be fading breakouts that deviate too far from this average.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>That behavior is likely to persist.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears lack any micro gap from the highs of the range:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>While there is a body gap, subsequent sideways movement weakens its significance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Thus, this bear leg lacks conviction.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Key support levels under current price:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The $100,000 round number.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The breakout gap (BO GAP).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If bears manage to close the breakout gap, it would:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Be a positive signal for them.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Help argue against bullish inertia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However, if that attempt results in weak bear price action:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The context would not support further downside.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In trading ranges:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Buyers often step in below strong-looking bear bars, especially in the lower third of the range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This is the case with Friday\u2019s bar (at time of writing).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Weekend expectation:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Price should either stay above this week\u2019s low, or:<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Retest it after test of $100,000.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Next week\u2019s outlook:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>No large moves expected (~$4,000 range).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A strong trading range breakdown is not anticipated.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Option strategy consideration:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Weekly expiration Bull Put Spread:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Sell put at $100,000, buy put at a lower strike. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Aims to capture premium, given low downside expectations before expiration.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Worth exploring under this current low-volatility, range-bound context.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Bitcoin Bitcoin triggered a Low 2 setup on the weekly chart. The Low 2 setup is also the Handle of a Cup and Handle Pattern. Bitcoin The Weekly chart of Bitcoin The Daily chart of Bitcoin Market analysis reports archive You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7271,"featured_media":241628,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1904,136],"tags":[223,324],"class_list":["post-241430","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","category-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency","entry","override","shadow"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250620-BITCOIN-REPORT.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Josep","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/cnjoseluis10gmail-com\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=241430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/241430\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/241628"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=241430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=241430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=241430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}