{"id":242740,"date":"2025-06-29T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-29T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=242740"},"modified":"2025-06-28T02:29:39","modified_gmt":"2025-06-28T09:29:39","slug":"bitcoin-the-bull-reversal-of-2nd-quarter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/bitcoin-the-bull-reversal-of-2nd-quarter\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin The Bull Reversal of 2nd Quarter"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>As of the June 2025 close, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/indices\/investing.com-btc-usd\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/indices\/investing.com-btc-usd\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin <\/a><\/strong>concludes Q2 up approximately 25% from the Q1 2025 close.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This gain reflects profitability for long-term holders.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The quarter&#8217;s strong performance creates favorable conditions for profit-taking.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Despite profit-taking, the broader technical and structural outlook remains attractive, especially for newcomers evaluating long exposure.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Monthly chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a2221065dec4&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a2221065dec4\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT.png\" alt=\"monthly chart of bitcoin on june 27th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-242791\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\taria-label=\"Ampliar\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.imageButtonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.imageButtonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Monthly chart of Bitcoin on June 26th 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin remains firmly within a bull channel market cycle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bullish leg initiated with the October 2023 breakout bar, a strong bullish impulse that was confirmed by November 2023, delivering excellent follow-through.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>After advancing a significant distance, the market underwent a two-legged corrective pullback, as is typical in trending environments.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The correction tested the 12-month moving average, a critical long-term trend indicator.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Following this test, the market began a trend resumption, resulting in a second bull breakout that extended up to the $100,000 psychological resistance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At the $100K level, resistance was expected due to a combination of factors:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The measured move projection based on the height of the preceding pullback<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The climactic characteristics of the second leg of the bull move<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The symbolic and psychological pressure of first time touching a six-figure round number<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The price went from the $100K area and tested the breakout point, the high of the preceding pullback. Then the price reversed up and reached, recently, all-time highs. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Crucially, this test did not result in an overlap, meaning the breakout gap is open.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Breakout gaps that remain open are a key feature of strong trends.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reversals against strong trends fail approximately 80% of the time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This statistical edge reflects that strong trends tend to have four or more legs before undergoing a major reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>These legs do not need to be symmetrical.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The open gap strengthens this strong bull trend thesis.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Provided price does not close the gap or transition into a tight trading range, the bull channel scenario remains the dominant probability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Should the gap eventually close, that would imply a transition to a broader trading range, but this is not discussed yet given current evidence.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The focus remains on continuation within the bull channel context.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In recent commentary during the bull micro-channel on the weekly chart, it was noted that buying directly above the previous all-time high was not advisable due to excessive stop distance (30%).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A more favorable setup would involve a pullback to form a handle, essentially, a price compression.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>June is at the time of the writing an inside bar, representing a High 1 setup.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This pattern allows for a tighter stop-loss structure, traders entering above June&#8217;s high can set stops below June&#8217;s low, resulting in around a 10% stop, far more reasonable than previous entries.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If either the final days of June or early July produces a bull breakout above June&#8217;s high, momentum buyers are likely to enter.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls will require July to close as a bull bar, ideally above the all-time high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A strong July close would confirm trend continuation and further validate the breakout&#8217;s strength.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls are targeting the $120,000 level, which aligns with a measured move based on the 2021\u20132022 drawdown.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This is a reasonable and visible magnet for &#8220;short-term&#8221; (1 to 4 bars) price action.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bitcoin appears to be in the third leg of the ongoing bull trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Third legs in strong bull channels typically present reduced reward-to-risk ratios for new swing trades.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As such, swing traders prefer to initiate positions during the second leg, when breakout risk is lower and reward is higher.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>At this stage, tactical trades (scalps) toward the $120K level are more appropriate.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In conclusion:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The market is still in a strong bull trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The open breakout gap confirms strength and favors continuation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strong trends typically produce multiple legs (4+) before major reversal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current conditions support bullish bias, with $120,000 acting as the near-term magnet.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The Weekly chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT2.png\" alt=\"weekly chart of bitcoin on june 27th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-242788\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT2.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT2-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT2-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Weekly chart of Bitcoin on June 26th 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin spent most of 2024 (~8 months) in a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Eventually, price broke out above the range\u2019s high and completed a measured move upward.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In early 2025, a double top structure formed, followed by a strong bear surprise bar, initiating an \u201calways in short\u201d market.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Based on the strength of the bear bar, a second leg down or sideways was the expected development.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bear follow-through was limited:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Large lower tail on the bar preceding the surprise, showing strong buying below<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price action quickly re-entered the double top zone and closed the breakout gap<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>These actions indicated that bears were unable to dominate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 12-month MA provided support and coincided with the 2024 breakout level, a critical confluence support zone.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In Q1 2025, institutional rebalancing flows were anticipated:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Price had retraced ~30% from Q4 2024 highs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This likely triggered buy programs and reallocations, reinforcing technical support<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A textbook High 3 pattern developed \u2014 a classic pullback formation in an uptrend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A few weeks later, a strong bull bar closed above the 3-month moving average, flipping the market bias from \u201calways in short\u201d to \u201calways in long.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The market fully recovered the prior bearish drawdown.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The price action formed a cup and handle. <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets resist behavioral regime shifts, and once a bull trend resumes, major reversals are difficult.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The first pullback in a resumed bull leg usually fails to reverse the trend, increasing odds for a successful continuation, which means, increased odds of another bull leg.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Market formed a sideways-to-down pullback, culminating in a Low 2 setup that triggered last week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>However:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bearish odds were weak<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Context was not conducive to aggressive shorting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trader\u2019s equation did not favor downside setups<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls are now expecting a bull breakout of the pullback.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The measured move from the higher timeframe still points to $120K.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>As stated previously, limit order bulls may scale into the pullback, potentially as deep as a 50% retracement, assuming trend context remains intact.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A 50% retracement would:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Challenge the current bull trend narrative<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Increase substantially the probability of a transition into a trading range market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The Market remains in a tight bull channel on the weekly chart.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Based on structure and recent price action, it will likely:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Continue upward into a fresh bull leg, or<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Transition into a trading range.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This week\u2019s strong bull bar represents a reasonable buy signal.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Entering with a stop order above the bull bar is justified by context.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A higher-probability entry is a stop order above the all-time high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Logical stop placement is below the two legged pullback low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On a weekly timeframe, position should target 2x the initial risk.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bitcoin remains in a technically strong position across both monthly and weekly charts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The structure supports trend continuation, with $120,000 acting as the bull magnet.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Bitcoin Bitcoin The Monthly chart of Bitcoin The Weekly chart of Bitcoin Market analysis reports archive You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7271,"featured_media":242791,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1904,136],"tags":[223,324],"class_list":{"0":"post-242740","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin","8":"category-analysis","9":"tag-bitcoin","10":"tag-cryptocurrency","11":"entry","12":"override","13":"shadow"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/06\/20250627-BITCOIN-REPORT.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Josep","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/cnjoseluis10gmail-com\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=242740"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/242740\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/242791"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=242740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=242740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=242740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}