{"id":243329,"date":"2025-07-06T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-06T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=243329"},"modified":"2025-07-05T03:57:26","modified_gmt":"2025-07-05T10:57:26","slug":"bitcoin-weekly-high-2-triggered","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/bitcoin-weekly-high-2-triggered\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Weekly High 2 Triggered"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>During the previous <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin&#8217;s <\/a><\/strong>report, we <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/bitcoin-the-bull-reversal-of-2nd-quarter\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/bitcoin-the-bull-reversal-of-2nd-quarter\/\">dissected the monthly chart<\/a>.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>June\u2019s close also sealed Q2 2025; that print is decisive for big-picture bias.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Funds ran quarter-end rebalancing programs; the first July sessions reveal follow-through and hint at Q3 flow.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Roughly 25 % Q2 appreciation forces systematic sellers, yet demand still matches supply; no objective evidence that the bull thesis is under siege.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Higher-timeframe structure stays bullish; bulls for now absorbed the rebalancing dump.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a5ebaf3b361a&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a5ebaf3b361a\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT.png\" alt=\"Weekly chart of Bitcoin on July 4th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-243429\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Weekly chart of Bitcoin on July 4th 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Context and Transition<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin traded sideways for ~8 months in 2024.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price broke above the range high and completed its measured move.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Early 2025 printed a double-top plus a hard bear surprise bar that flipped the market to \u201calways in short.\u201d<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Given that bear bar\u2019s power, a second leg lower or sideways was the base case.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears failed to extend:<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Big lower tail before the surprise bar signaled weakness.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price quickly re-entered the double-top zone and closed the breakout gap.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Result: bears never seized clear control.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 12-month MA overlapped the 2024 breakout zone, creating a confluence support shelf.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shift Back to Long<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Q1 2025: price was off ~30 % from Q4 2024 highs, triggering institutional buy programs during re-allocation.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A textbook High-3 pattern formed.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A few weeks later, a strong bull bar closed above the 3-month MA and flipped bias to \u201calways in long.\u201d<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Drawdown fully recovered; price entered a bull micro-channel and printed a cup-and-handle.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets resist regime shifts; resuming a bull trend straight from \u201calways in short\u201d is statistically bullish.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>First pullbacks in a fresh bull leg almost always fail to reverse; odds favor continuation.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A tight sideways-to-down pause ended with a High-2 buy signal last week.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>High-2 Mechanics and Targets<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>High-2 was a legitimate entry trigger.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Buying 1 tick, above the existing all-time high, carries higher expectancy.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls eye a bull breakout.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Monthly measured move objective = $120 000.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Extension toward $140 000 remains credible: measured move based upon the cup and handle.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Limit-order bulls may scale into the dip\u2014down to a 50 % retrace\u2014provided trend context survives.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A 50 % retracement would test the bull narrative and raise the risk of morphing into a trading range.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What Now<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Market stays in a tight bull channel.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Pathways:<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Continue into a fresh bull leg, or<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Slide into a trading range.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This week\u2019s follow-through bar has not yet closed above the signal bar\u2014less than ideal, but not fatal.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Give the tape room; it is the first post-Q2 week, and funds are still unloading after the +25 % run.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls are passing the stress test so far.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Protective stop of stop-order bulls sit below the June low.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A limit buy at the 3-month MA is valid, but likely unfilled; most bulls prefer a stop entry above ATH.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Probabilities:<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>60 % to hit $120 000 before tagging the June low.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>40 % to reach $130 000 before tagging the June low.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Failing back to the June low is possible, not shocking.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A direct drop to the 12-month MA would surprise, unless achieved via sideways drift first.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure data-wp-context=\"{&quot;imageId&quot;:&quot;6a5ebaf3b4b37&quot;}\" data-wp-interactive=\"core\/image\" data-wp-key=\"6a5ebaf3b4b37\" class=\"wp-block-image size-full wp-lightbox-container\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" data-wp-class--hide=\"state.isContentHidden\" data-wp-class--show=\"state.isContentVisible\" data-wp-init=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\" data-wp-on--load=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" data-wp-on--pointerdown=\"actions.preloadImage\" data-wp-on--pointerenter=\"actions.preloadImageWithDelay\" data-wp-on--pointerleave=\"actions.cancelPreload\" data-wp-on-window--resize=\"callbacks.setButtonStyles\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT2.png\" alt=\"Daily Chart of Bitcoin on July 4th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-243426\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT2.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT2-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT2-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><button\n\t\t\tclass=\"lightbox-trigger\"\n\t\t\ttype=\"button\"\n\t\t\taria-haspopup=\"dialog\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-bind--aria-label=\"state.thisImage.triggerButtonAriaLabel\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-init=\"callbacks.initTriggerButton\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-on--click=\"actions.showLightbox\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--right=\"state.thisImage.buttonRight\"\n\t\t\tdata-wp-style--top=\"state.thisImage.buttonTop\"\n\t\t>\n\t\t\t<svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"12\" height=\"12\" fill=\"none\" viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\">\n\t\t\t\t<path fill=\"#fff\" d=\"M2 0a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v2h1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 1 .5-.5h2V0H2Zm2 10.5H2a.5.5 0 0 1-.5-.5V8H0v2a2 2 0 0 0 2 2h2v-1.5ZM8 12v-1.5h2a.5.5 0 0 0 .5-.5V8H12v2a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H8Zm2-12a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v2h-1.5V2a.5.5 0 0 0-.5-.5H8V0h2Z\" \/>\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily Chart of Bitcoin on July 4th 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trading Range Anatomy<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The daily chart has moved sideways for almost two months.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>In the prior daily report (two weeks back), the market sat mid-second leg down inside that range.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears wanted a downside breakout and measured move; odds argued against it.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>I suggested studying an options trade structure: bull put spread to fade that bear thesis, relying on strong support at the prior bear leg low.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price indeed reversed in a precise two-leg rally from $100 000 to $110 000.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Counting the bull-trend climax, this marks the 3rd significant bull leg inside the range.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Breakout Math<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We now have five legs in total (three bull, two bear). Bull climax of prior Bull Trend should be counted as first leg in the trading range.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Traders should stop mechanically fading every breakout; the fifth attempt frequently sticks.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Historical stat: roughly 80 % of breakout attempts fail, so probability tilts toward success after the 4th try.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Beginners see the range now and attempt buy-low\/sell-high scalps just before the inevitable breakout.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>When the break comes it either:<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Starts a new trend, or<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Extends the range without revisiting the original entry (beginners always pay the pain).<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strategy Grid for Professionals<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pros do not guess direction; they stand ready to trade either a bear or bull breakout.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Options desks look at straddles only after five or more legs <strong>and<\/strong> a tight range; current range is too wide, so premium bleed is an issue.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Without a tight structure, option buyers lose edge (theta); I would stick to directional futures or spot.<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Playbook:<br>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Buy a breakout with follow-through, or<br><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Short a failed bull breakout.<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Place stops at the major higher low for longs and at the major higher high for shorts. Bulls target $120,000. Bears target $100,000<br><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Current pricing shows Bitcoin in a technically firm position, despite forced selling from Q2 rebalances.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Bitcoin Bitcoin The Weekly chart of Bitcoin The Daily chart of Bitcoin Market analysis reports archive You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7271,"featured_media":243429,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1904,136],"tags":[223,324],"class_list":["post-243329","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","category-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency","entry","override","shadow"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250704-BITCOIN-REPORT.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Josep","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/cnjoseluis10gmail-com\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243329","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=243329"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243329\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/243429"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=243329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=243329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=243329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}