{"id":243940,"date":"2025-07-13T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-07-13T08:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=243940"},"modified":"2025-07-12T02:57:40","modified_gmt":"2025-07-12T09:57:40","slug":"bitcoin-bull-breakout-of-cup-and-handle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/bitcoin-bull-breakout-of-cup-and-handle\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bull Breakout of Cup and Handle"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Overview: Bitcoin <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This week, <a href=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>Bitcoin <\/strong><\/a>did a strong bull breakout of a Cup and Handle pattern that I have been talking about since a long time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Last week\u2019s report anticipated fairly well how the scenarios that would play out this week would unfold.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If you want to enjoy this week&#8217;s piece, we suggest you to read first <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/bitcoin-weekly-high-2-triggered\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/analysis\/bitcoin-weekly-high-2-triggered\/\">the previous week report<\/a>. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Bitcoin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Weekly<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT.png\" alt=\"Weekly Chart of Bitcoin on July 12th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-244127\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Weekly Chart of Bitcoin on July 12th 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Context and Transition\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bitcoin traded in a trading range for 8 months in 2024.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price broke above the range&#8217;s high and completed its measured move.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Early 2025 printed a double-top plus a strong bear surprise bar that flipped the market to \u201calways in short.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Given that bear bar\u2019s power, a second leg lower or sideways was the base case.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears failed to extend:<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Big lower tail before the surprise bar signaled weakness.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Price quickly re-entered the double-top zone and closed the breakout gap.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Result: bears never seized clear control.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The 12-month moving average overlapped the 2024 breakout zone, creating a confluence support shelf.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shift Back to Long\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Q1 2025: price was off 30% from Q4 2024 highs, triggering institutional buy programs during re-allocation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A textbook High-3 pattern formed.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A few weeks later, a strong bull bar closed above the 3-month moving average and flipped bias to \u201calways in long.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Drawdown fully recovered; price was in a strong bull micro-channel and printed a cup-and-handle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Markets resist regime shifts; resuming a bull trend straight from \u201calways in short\u201d is statistically bullish.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>First pullbacks in a fresh bull leg almost always fail to reverse; odds favored continuation.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A tight sideways-to-down pause ended with a High-2 buy signal two weeks ago.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>High-2 Mechanics\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We have said that the High-2 was a legitimate entry trigger.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The follow-through was not strong, but we have said that bulls were looking resilient since we were expecting sellers \u2013 Q2 net sellers institutional rebalances \u2013 and bulls held well.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We have also said that buying 1 tick above the previous all-time high was also a reasonable place to buy and a higher probability than High 2.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls were eyeing a bull breakout.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bull Breakout and Targets\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We have said, before the bull breakout, that probabilities were:<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>60% to hit $120,000 before tagging the June low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>40% to reach $130,000 before tagging the June low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This week, the price broke above the previous all-time high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The bull breakout bar is strong at the time of the writing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>On IBIT ETF, which already closed on Friday, the bull bar is a strong bull bar closing practically on its high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Monthly measured move objective is around $120,000.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Extension toward $140,000 remains credible: measured move based upon the cup and handle.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>After such a breakout, a second leg is likely.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Even if there is a sharp retracement, the close of IBIT ETF from this week, of (this week&#8217;s Bitcoin spot Friday&#8217;s close), will be likely tested.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls expect testing $123,000 this next week.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>$120,000 \u2013 $123,000 there might be a pause due to profit takers.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Trade Management Ideas\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>1:1 of the High-2 has been reached. Closing 50% of the position allows traders to run a free trade.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If I partially close the position by half, would not suggest putting stop at breakeven: likely buyers below this week\u2019s low.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Do not close partially and trail stop at the 3-month moving average also reasonable, but lower probability of making money.\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Give 2\u20133% margin below the moving average.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>What Now\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Market stays in a tight bull channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There is a gap open with the current price and previous high (breakout point) and also the previous highest close (body gap).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While both gaps remain open, the likelihood is the bull trend continues.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bears need a strong bear bar for their best scenario: a failed bull breakout, and test the High-2 and June lows.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Probabilities<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>70% there is, at least, a second leg sideways to up.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>30% of reversal down to bull breakout low and do not come back to Friday\u2019s close.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Failing back to the June low is possible, not shocking.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>A direct drop to the 12-month moving average would surprise, unless achieved via sideways drift first.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The <em>Daily<\/em> chart of Bitcoin <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT2.png\" alt=\"Daily Chart of Bitcoin on July 12th 2025\" class=\"wp-image-244124\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT2.png 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT2-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT2-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT2-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Daily Chart of Bitcoin on July 12th 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Trading Range Anatomy\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>We have been assessing the trading range on the daily chart with high precision.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Last week we have said that after 5 attempts to breakout the trading range, there was an increased chance of a successful breakout happening.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>We have said that traders should stop fading breakouts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This week, bulls broke strongly above previous highs.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bulls want this to be a spike on what will become a spike and channel bull trend.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>This might be a bull leg in what will become a trading range.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The less likely scenario is that there will be a reversal and without test of this Friday\u2019s close.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Breakout Math\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The bull breakout looks good.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Good distance run in a short period of time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Currently 4 bull micro-channel.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Most bull bars closing above prior high.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Micro gaps.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>How to Buy for Those That Did Not Trade the Breakout\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Buy weak reversals.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Buy below prior bars, especially if they are bull bars and close above midpoint.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Buy above \u201cHigh 1.\u201d<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Through Options<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Short put spread (bullish) with the short put strike below current price.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Risk Management\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Stop loss is currently at the major higher low (MHL).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>There should be buyers below the current biggest bull breakout bar.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Scenarios\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Warning if there is a 50% pullback and not a quick and strong reversal from there.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>If 50% pullback and there is not a notable reversal from there:\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This is likely a bull leg in what will become a trading range, not a spike.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\" \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Overview: Bitcoin Bitcoin The Weekly chart of Bitcoin The Daily chart of Bitcoin Market analysis reports archive You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7271,"featured_media":244127,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"shadow","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1904,136],"tags":[223,324],"class_list":["post-243940","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-bitcoin","category-analysis","tag-bitcoin","tag-cryptocurrency","entry","override","shadow"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/20250712-BITCOIN-REPORT.png","author_info":{"display_name":"Josep","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/cnjoseluis10gmail-com\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243940","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=243940"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/243940\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/244127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=243940"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=243940"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=243940"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}