{"id":255071,"date":"2025-11-16T01:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-11-16T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=255071"},"modified":"2025-11-16T00:06:11","modified_gmt":"2025-11-16T08:06:11","slug":"bitcoin-bear-breakout-of-100000-big-round-number","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/bitcoin-bear-breakout-of-100000-big-round-number\/","title":{"rendered":"Bitcoin Bear Breakout of $100,000 Big Round Number"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market Video Report: Bitcoin<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-video-popup stk-block-video-popup stk-block stk-a0a882a\" data-video=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/eeuYQFsPTBg\" data-block-id=\"a0a882a\"><style>.stk-a0a882a {margin-bottom:23px !important;}<\/style><div class=\"stk-block-video-popup__overlay stk-row stk-inner-blocks stk-block-content stk-hover-parent\" aria-label=\"Play Video\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"button\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-icon stk-block-icon has-text-align-center stk-block stk-fc13844\" data-block-id=\"fc13844\"><span class=\"stk--svg-wrapper\"><div class=\"stk--inner-svg\"><svg style=\"height:0;width:0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"linear-gradient-fc13844\" x1=\"0\" x2=\"100%\" y1=\"0\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0%\" style=\"stop-opacity:1;stop-color:var(--linear-gradient-fc-13844-color-1)\"><\/stop><stop offset=\"100%\" style=\"stop-opacity:1;stop-color:var(--linear-gradient-fc-13844-color-2)\"><\/stop><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><svg class=\"svg-inline--fa fa-play fa-w-14\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 448 512\" aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\"><path fill=\"currentColor\" d=\"M424.4 214.7L72.4 6.6C43.8-10.3 0 6.1 0 47.9V464c0 37.5 40.7 60.1 72.4 41.3l352-208c31.4-18.5 31.5-64.1 0-82.6z\"><\/path><\/svg><\/div><\/span><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-image stk-block-image stk-block stk-9ca5ccf\" data-block-id=\"9ca5ccf\"><figure><span class=\"stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-253315\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Bitcoin-Weekend-Video-Report-Josep-Capo.jpg\" width=\"1280\" height=\"720\" alt=\"Bitcoin Weekend Video Report - Josep Capo\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Bitcoin-Weekend-Video-Report-Josep-Capo.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Bitcoin-Weekend-Video-Report-Josep-Capo-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Bitcoin-Weekend-Video-Report-Josep-Capo-680x383.jpg 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Bitcoin-Weekend-Video-Report-Josep-Capo-768x432.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><\/span><\/figure><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Duration 7:28 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo&#8217;s original script.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>This week, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/investing.com\/crypto\/bitcoin\" rel=\"noopener\">Bitcoin <\/a><\/strong>showed strong bearish action, potentially creating an inflection point. Traders find this intriguing, as BTC has been in a trading range since July, and the price action may start a directional move in either direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Transcript<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Hey everyone, <strong>welcome <\/strong>to this week\u2019s video analysis of Bitcoin\u2019s price action on the weekly and daily charts. My name is Josep Capo, Price Action Trader and author for the Brooks Trading Course website.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the weekly chart, we&#8217;re seeing a breakdown of what a Breakout Mode pattern\u2014that&#8217;s the area I&#8217;ve highlighted in the gray box. Up until this week, a potential bear breakout was lurking, but it wasn&#8217;t really showing its teeth. Now, this week&#8217;s candle is closing way below the key points of that Breakout Mode pattern, and it&#8217;s also dropped far from major supports like the 365-day moving average or that big round number at $100,000. At first glance, this looks like a solid signal to sell, right? It seems like the bears are taking control.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But here&#8217;s where I pause and think carefully\u2014there&#8217;s a problem with this bear bar. It&#8217;s coming off a series of what we&#8217;d call bad signals. I&#8217;ve marked the dark gray for bear bars where the body makes up less than 50% of its range, and light gray for bull bars in the same boat. From the top down to this current signal, most of these bars have big tails, showing a lot of indecision. There&#8217;s even a strong bull signal bar in there, and now you&#8217;ve got trapped bulls who bought into that and are stuck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, if you&#8217;re asking me as a breakout trader, yeah, I&#8217;d consider selling this setup. But honestly, it&#8217;d be tough for me to convince myself that this bear breakout has a high probability of succeeding. That doesn&#8217;t mean it won&#8217;t work out\u2014it just means, at least right now, it&#8217;s not a high-quality breakout to me. Why does quality matter? Because low-quality signals often lead to sideways moves or reversals, eating into your profits or stopping you out prematurely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On top of that, there are other reasons why selling here feels inconvenient. The price is dipping into an area where bulls left open micro gaps which hint zones where you&#8217;d expect buying to kick in because there might be trapped bears from earlier who never got a chance to exit. Plus, there are other supports nearby, such as the measured move target based on the size of that Breakout Mode pattern, and the $90,000 big round number.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thinking ahead to the next few weeks, I&#8217;d lean toward this turning sideways to up. It probably won&#8217;t stray too far from that $100,000 level, or we could even see a reversal. But what if it keeps dropping? From my personal strategy\u2014and I&#8217;m talking as a trader here, not just an analyst\u2014I wouldn&#8217;t sell right now. I&#8217;d rather wait for a new, higher-quality bear leg to form from higher prices. Sure, that means I might miss a move down toward the bears&#8217; target around $75,000, which I&#8217;ve marked as a green zone on the chart. If we get there, though, it&#8217;d be really interesting to sell volatility. I bet a lot of institutions would be hedging their long-term portfolios by buying volatility, which could keep the price stable around those levels. The price action support there is strong enough that, if you structure it right, it becomes a positive trader&#8217;s equation\u2014a bet with good odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, if there&#8217;s a reversal from here, bulls would see this as a failed bear breakout from the Breakout Mode pattern. They&#8217;d jump in quickly if they spot bull momentum and follow-through, betting on a test back to the high of that pattern. Their challenge? There are likely trapped bulls up around $114,550, which could cap the upside potential and create resistance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shifting over to the daily chart\u2014wow, this week was intensely bearish. Monday gave us a good follow-through bar after Sunday&#8217;s bull reversal attempt from a micro double bottom. But then Tuesday hit with a huge outside down bar\u2014a really solid-looking reversal bar and bets on that failed bull reversal. Wednesday and Thursday were full of trading range action, as you can tell from all those tails, showing buyers and sellers battling it out, with bears as clear final winners. Then Friday delivered a massive bear breakout bar\u2014one of the best-looking ones since the bear trend kicked off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When did this bear trend start? Well, arguably at the all-time high, but I&#8217;d pinpoint the count of bear legs from the high on October 27th, where it formed a double top with the October 13th high. From there, bears have pushed three legs down: Leg 1, Leg 2, and this week&#8217;s Leg 3. What&#8217;s the rhythm here? After each strong push, the price has tended to go sideways to up. That&#8217;s tough for bears who bet low during those legs because the market&#8217;s tempo keeps validating pullbacks or reversals after breakouts. It reinforces that you can&#8217;t just chase every down move without being willing to scale in higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Another key point: Bulls who bought below Leg 1 and scalped down about $5,000 lower? They got to exit with a win on their second entry and breakeven on the first. That kind of success encourages traders to try it again, especially on a third or fourth leg. So, there are probably buyers lurking around Friday&#8217;s lows, and I expect the low of the second bear leg to get tested next week or so. If we break down without testing that, it&#8217;d force bulls to hedge or exit, meaning they&#8217;d sell the underlying by buying puts in the options market\u2014which could accelerate the downside.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If instead the price goes sideways in the coming days rather than straight down, and then a new bear leg emerges, that&#8217;d be a fourth bear leg. Statistically, a fourth leg has only about 30% chances or less of kicking off a full bear trend. Now, 30% might sound low, but it&#8217;s way more than most people realize. Our brains tend to think in black-and-white terms but in trading, you do not have to isolate events. Intraday traders see these patterns play out repeatedly over a month, so probabilities like that are very real.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So, would I be a buyer or seller here? As a breakout trader, I&#8217;d look at this downward move and decide on selling. My call? I&#8217;m not selling because of everything we&#8217;ve discussed. It&#8217;s hard to be a breakout trader in an environment where breakouts are followed by sideways action or moves against the main direction. This setup is better suited for limit order bulls or bear pullback traders\u2014folks who are ready for trade retracements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, as you can see, traders like me focus on potential scenarios and where opportunities lie. We don&#8217;t chase certainties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market analysis reports archive<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>You can access all weekend reports on the <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" class=\"rank-math-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">Market Analysis<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-css-opacity\"\/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Market Video Report: Bitcoin Duration 7:28 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo&#8217;s original script. Summary This week, Bitcoin showed strong bearish action, potentially creating an inflection point. Traders find this intriguing, as BTC has been in a trading range since July, and the price action may start a directional move in either direction. Transcript Hey [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7271,"featured_media":253315,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1904,136,241],"tags":[1348,223,1357,324],"class_list":{"0":"post-255071","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-bitcoin","8":"category-analysis","9":"category-video","10":"tag-big-round-number","11":"tag-bitcoin","12":"tag-breakout-mode","13":"tag-cryptocurrency","14":"entry","15":"override"},"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/Bitcoin-Weekend-Video-Report-Josep-Capo.jpg","author_info":{"display_name":"Josep","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/cnjoseluis10gmail-com\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/255071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7271"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=255071"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/255071\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/253315"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=255071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=255071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=255071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}