{"id":66385,"date":"2017-04-28T06:10:45","date_gmt":"2017-04-28T13:10:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=66385"},"modified":"2018-06-24T02:28:41","modified_gmt":"2018-06-24T09:28:41","slug":"correction-after-trump-tax-cut-and-obamacare-repeal-and-replace","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/correction-after-trump-tax-cut-and-obamacare-repeal-and-replace\/","title":{"rendered":"Correction after Trump tax cut and Obamacare repeal and replace
Intraday market update: April 28, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"

Correction after Trump tax cut and Obamacare repeal and replace<\/h2>\n

Updated 6:49 a.m.<\/p>\n

Yesterday reversed up strongly from a wedge bottom. Therefore, the odds favor a 2nd leg up today. Yet, today opened with 3 big bear bars within yesterday’s 4 hour trading range. Therefore, the bulls are hesitating. They want an opening reversal up from the moving average for an early low of the day.<\/p>\n

Because those 3 big bear bars are just above the 60 minute moving average, and the 60 minute chart has a 20 gap bar buy signal, the downside is not great. Hence, the bears need a strong break below the 60 minute moving average to create a strong bear trend. This is unlikely. Therefore, the odds are against a strong bear trend, at least for the 1st few hours. <\/p>\n

This is a trading range open. Furthermore, the all time high is resistance above. Hence, the odds are that the Emini will be sideways for the 1st hour or two. Because the all-time high is a magnet, there is an increased chance of a bull trend day today. But, this open and the location between support and resistance make a trading range likely. <\/p>\n

Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n

Today is Friday and therefore weekly support and resistance are important. The bulls was a breakout to a new all-time high. The bears want a close below the open of the week. Since yesterday reversed up from a wedge bottom, the odds are against the bear close on the weekly chart.<\/p>\n

Because yesterday reversed up from a 20 gap bar buy setup on the 6 minute chart, the odds favor sideways to up today. Yet, since the weekly chart has a strong buy climax, the odds are against more than 1 – 3 more weeks up. In addition, May and June tend to be down months. This also reduces the chances of a big rally over the next couple of months.<\/p>\n

Nothing has changed from what I have been saying for 2 months. I said that the Emini would probably test the March 15 lower high or the all-time high. The odds at that point favored a move down below the weekly moving average. The bulls are getting their test. While they might get a new high, the odds are that the breakout will fail and reverse down at least 100 points within a couple of months.<\/p>\n

Last day of the week and month<\/h4>\n

Because today is Friday, it determines the appearance of the weekly candlestick. At a minimum, the bulls want a close above the midpoint of the week.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, it is the last day of the month. It therefore affects the monthly chart. Consequently, he bulls will try to create as much strength as possible. At a minimum, they would like this month to close above last month’s high. Hence, they want a close at a new all-time high. Hence, last month’s 2,398.00 is an important magnet at the end of the day. <\/p>\n

Therefore, if the Emini is within about 5 points at the end of the day, traders should be ready for a possible strong rally. Id addition, it the Emini gets to within a couple of points, they also should be ready for a strong reversal down.<\/p>\n

Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n

The Emini is up 1 point in the Globex market. Since yesterday reversed up strongly from a 2 day wedge bottom, the odds favor a 2nd leg sideways to up today. <\/p>\n

Yet, the Emini is only 11 points below the all-time high. In addition, it sold off violently twice on Wednesday from just below that high. The bears are therefore trying hard to create a double top with the March all-time high of 2,398. Since today is the last day of the week and of the month, it affects the appearance of those charts. Consequently, traders should be ready for a possible Sell The Close or Buy The Close trend in the final hour.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n

\"EURUSD<\/a><\/p>\n

The EURUSD daily Forex chart has been sideways since breaking above its 6 month trading range. It is therefore deciding whether the breakout will succeed or reverse.<\/p>\n

The EURUSD daily Forex market has rallied for 3 weeks. In addition, it broke above its 6 month trading range. Furthermore, it has been forming higher highs and lows. Consequently, it is in a broad bull channel. Yet, if it reveres back down, traders will conclude that the 6 month trading range is just a bear flag on the monthly chart.<\/p>\n

Trends have clarity. Hence, when a trader looks at a bull trend, he wants to buy. In addition, if the trend is very strong, he feels like he wants a pullback. This is not the case with the EURUSD daily Forex chart. When traders look at it, they still believe that a reversal down is just as likely as a measured move up. Therefore, this rally is still more likely to fail than be the early stage in a new trend. Consequently, the bulls need to do more before traders will eagerly buy at the top of the rally. <\/p>\n

One way to increase the probability of a bull trend is to consecutive big bull trend bars closing on their highs. Additionally, they could continue the 3 week tight bull channel for 10 – 20 more bars. Therefore, without some sign of strong control by the bulls, traders will correctly believe that this rally will fail within a couple of weeks. As a result, it would then be followed by a leg down that lasts 2 – 3 weeks. Hence, traders would conclude that the trading range is still in control.<\/p>\n

Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n

The EURUSD Forex market rallied 90 pips overnight. In addition, it broke above yesterday’s high. Yet, it has not yet broken strongly above the 5 day trading range. Furthermore, it sold off 40 pips over the past 2 hours. Consequently, this creates confusion. Hence, the bulls do not yet have follow-through buying after their breakout on the daily chart. It therefore makes it likely that the 5 day trading range will continue today. <\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n

\"emini<\/a><\/p>\n

The Emini was in a weak bear channel today. Bulls bought new lows for 1 point scalps and bears sold above the moving average for scalps.<\/p>\n

The Emini is forming a double top on the daily chart. Yet, it now has a double bottom bull flag on the 60 minute chart. May and June are typically weak months. Since there is a 70% chance pf the start of a correction within the next few weeks, bears will probably sell any strong rally to a new all-time high. In addition, there is a risk that the correction could be sudden. This is a good price and time to buy puts or put spreads.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

See the weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n

\n

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Correction after Trump tax cut and Obamacare repeal and replace Updated 6:49 a.m. Yesterday reversed up strongly from a wedge bottom. Therefore, the odds favor a 2nd leg up today. Yet, today opened with 3 big bear bars within yesterday’s 4 hour trading range. Therefore, the bulls are hesitating. They want an opening reversal up […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-66385","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66385","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66385"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66385\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66385"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66385"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66385"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}