{"id":68278,"date":"2017-06-28T06:20:54","date_gmt":"2017-06-28T13:20:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=68278"},"modified":"2018-06-10T23:42:22","modified_gmt":"2018-06-11T06:42:22","slug":"emini-correcting-after-yellen-and-trump-healthcare-failure","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-correcting-after-yellen-and-trump-healthcare-failure\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini correcting after Yellen and Trump healthcare failure <br \/>Intraday market update: June 28, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini correcting after Yellen and Trump healthcare failure<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">Updated 6:47 a.m.<\/p>\n<p>While the Emini gapped above a major lower high from yesterday, the follow-through buying was weak. Since yesterday sold off and today gapped up, there is a Big Down, Big Up, Big Confusion open. Therefore, the odds favor a trading range over the 1st couple of hours. This was likely regardless simply from yesterday&#8217;s wedge bottom. <\/p>\n<p>Any day can be a trend day. However, with today opening in the middle of yesterday&#8217;s range and having an early reversal, the odds are that today will have a lot of trading range trading. Resistance is the 60 minute moving average and maybe yesterday&#8217;s high. Support is the 5 minute moving average and yesterday&#8217;s low.<\/p>\n<p>Since today is in the middle of yesterday&#8217;s big range and a trading range is likely, today might be an inside day. There will probably be both a swing up and down. The Emini is currently deciding which will come first.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nBy trading below yesterday&#8217;s low, the Emini triggered a small double top sell signal. Furthermore, it fell below last week&#8217;s low. It therefore also triggered a sell signal on the weekly chart. The bears have about a 50% chance that this is the start of a 100 point pullback to below the weekly moving average. Yet, they need strong follow-through selling. Bear trends usually begin with a big bear trend bar. Day traders will be ready to swing trade if one unfolds this week.<\/p>\n<p>Since yesterday was a bear channel, it was a bull flag. Furthermore, it was a wedge. While today could have strong follow-through selling, it will more likely break above the channel and test one or both of yesterday&#8217;s lower highs. A channel usually evolves into a trading range. Hence, today will probably be a bull leg in that developing range.<\/p>\n<p>Friday is the end of the month. The Emini is just above the open of the month. If the Emini closes below the open, it would have a sell signal bar on the monthly chart as well.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is up 6 points in the Globex market. The bulls want to rally above the bear channel and back above last week&#8217;s low. The bears want Friday to close below the open of the month. Their goal is to create a bear reversal bar on the monthly chart. Since both prices are important this week, the odds are that the Emini will stay in this area until Friday.<\/p>\n<p>While there is a 50% chance of follow-through selling in the 1st 2 hours, there is a 75% chance of a trading range forming by the end of the 2nd hour. After yesterday&#8217;s wedge bottom, the odds are that today will have at least 2 legs sideways to up, lasting about half as many bars as yesterday&#8217;s selloff. <\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-20.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-20-600x336.png\" alt=\"Emini sold off below last week&#039;s low on failed Trump healthcare bill\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-68332\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-20-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-20-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-20-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/EC-20.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/EC-20-600x336.png\" alt=\"EURUSD breakout above major high after trump healthcare failure.\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-68336\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/EC-20-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/EC-20-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/EC-20-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Yesterday was a big bull trend bar on the daily EURUSD Forex chart. Furthermore, it broke far above the strong resistance of the November 9 high. However, today so far is a doji bar. This is therefore bad follow-through. Hence, it increases the chances that the breakout will fail.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nYesterday closed far enough above the November 9 lower high to be a strong bull breakout. Yet, the EURUSD market is still in a 2 year trading range. While I have been saying for several weeks that the odds favored the breakout, I also said that the breakout would still be only a bull leg in the 2 year trading range. In addition, I have been saying that the breakout would fail. What no one knows is if the breakout will fail immediately or after several more weeks and 200 more pips.<\/p>\n<p>The EURUSD Forex market is in a bear trend on the monthly chart. It has been in a trading range for 2 years. There have been more than 10 attempts to break above 1.1400 and each has failed. Will this one succeed? Probably not. When a market is in a trading range, it often tries to break into a trend. And eventually it always does. However, 80% of strong attempts fail. Therefore, the odds are that this one will fail as well. Hence, the trading range of the past 3 weeks will probably be the final bull flag in the 6 month rally. The daily chart will therefore likely soon go sideways to down for at least a couple months. <\/p>\n<p>Because there is no clear top yet, and a couple of the rallies in the past 2 years have gone above 1.1500, this rally might continue for a few more weeks. In addition, it might go up for even 200 more pips. Yet, the odds are that it will not go higher or last longer. <\/p>\n<p>While it is possible that the daily chart could reverse down sharply, the 6 month bull trend has been in a tight channel. Consequently, the bulls will probably buy 200 pip pullbacks for a couple of months. Therefore, the daily chart will probably soon enter a 200 pip trading range that will last at least a couple of months<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe 5 minute chart sold off 900 pips within the past hour and then bounce 50 pips. Big Down, Big Up means Big Confusion, which means a trading range is likely for a few days. Therefore day traders will mostly scalp. They know that 1.1400 is resistance and they will therefore look to sell around there. <\/p>\n<p>They also know that yesterday&#8217;s breakout was strong. Hence, they will look to buy 100 &#8211; 200 pip selloff, like they just did. Finally, they know that the EURUSD market will probably have a hard time going far up or down over the next week or so. They therefore are taking quick profits.<\/p>\n<p><!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-21.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-21-600x336.png\" alt=\"Small pullback bull trend day in Emini.\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-68354\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-21-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-21-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/06\/es-21-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The Emini gapped above yesterday&#8217;s wedge bear channel. After a High 2 pullback, it rallied from an opening reversal up. The rally was a small pullback bull trend.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nToday was a strong bull trend day. The odds are that tomorrow will either be a trading range day or a bull trend day. The all-time high is within reach tomorrow. However, since last week was a sell signal bar on the weekly chart, the bear will try to get the week to close below last week&#8217;s low.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini correcting after Yellen and Trump healthcare failure Updated 6:47 a.m. While the Emini gapped above a major lower high from yesterday, the follow-through buying was weak. Since yesterday sold off and today gapped up, there is a Big Down, Big Up, Big Confusion open. Therefore, the odds favor a trading range over the 1st [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-68278","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68278","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68278"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68278\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68278"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68278"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68278"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}