{"id":70568,"date":"2017-09-13T06:20:34","date_gmt":"2017-09-13T13:20:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=70568"},"modified":"2018-05-23T05:12:55","modified_gmt":"2018-05-23T12:12:55","slug":"fomc-next-week-is-more-important-to-emini-traders-than-hurricanes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/fomc-next-week-is-more-important-to-emini-traders-than-hurricanes\/","title":{"rendered":"FOMC next week is more important to Emini traders than hurricanes<br \/>Intraday market update: September 13, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>FOMC next week is more important to Emini traders than hurricanes<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">Updated 6:40 a.m.<\/p>\n<p>The Emini opened within yesterday&#8217;s range. In addition, yesterday was a trading range day. Finally, after 2 bull days in a broad bull channel, the odds are that today will be a disappointing day for the bulls. Therefore, the odds are against a strong bull day.<\/p>\n<p>Yet, consecutive bull days is a sign of strong bulls. Therefore, the odds are against a strong bear day. That leaves a trading range day as the most likely outcome for today. Trading range days typically have at least one swing up and one down, and the swings usually last 2 &#8211; 3 hours. The Emini is now deciding whether the 1st swing will be up or down.<\/p>\n<p>While any day can be a big trend day, the context is against that today.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe Emini had a trading range day yesterday after Monday&#8217;s breakout to a new high. The 2500 Big Round Number is a magnet above. Since the momentum up is reasonably good, the odds are that the Emini will trade above 2500 within a week.<\/p>\n<p>The daily chart has 3 legs up from the August low on the daily chart. It is therefore a wedge rally. If there is a reversal setup soon, the bears will sell, looking for a couple of legs down. The pattern would be a higher high major trend reversal and an expanding triangle top. The Emini is also near the top of its 7 month bull channel.<\/p>\n<p>Because Monday&#8217;s rally was followed by a trading range yesterday, today will probably not be strongly bullish. In addition, yesterday&#8217;s lack of follow-through increases the chances of a 1 &#8211; 2 day pullback today or tomorrow.<\/p>\n<h4>Broad bull channel<\/h4>\n<p>Since the Emini has been in a broad bull channel over the past 7 months, it has a lot of trading range behavior. Consequently, strong bull breakouts usually have disappointing follow-through. Therefore, after 2 good bull days on the daily chart, the odds are that today will either be a small bear day or a trading range day.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is down 4 points in the Globex market. This is consistent with the daily chart being in a broad bull channel. The odds of a 3rd consecutive strong bull day are less than those for either a small bear day or a doji day. A small down open would be consistent with this.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-3-600x340.png\" alt=\"Emini breakout to new all-tim eH and test 2500 big round number\" width=\"600\" height=\"340\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-70603\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-3-600x340.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-3-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-3-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-3.png 1907w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/EC-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/EC-4-600x338.png\" alt=\"EURUSD wedge top before FOMC interest rate hike\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-70606\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/EC-4-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/EC-4-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/EC-4-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/EC-4.png 1905w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\"> The EURUSD daily Forex chart bounce overnight after Monday&#8217;s 1st leg down from the wedge top. The odds are that the chart is transitioning into a trading range over the next month or two.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart reversed down on Monday from a wedge top. The wedge has a good shape. In addition, it is at resistance on the monthly chart. Furthermore, the 7 month rally is in a tight bull channel and is therefore climactic. The 2nd and 3rd legs up in the wedge bull channel were strong. That increases the chances of 1 more minor new high before the daily chart transitions into a trading range. While the bull trend can continue much higher, these facts make a pullback likely over the next month or two. <\/p>\n<p>Since the pullbacks from the 2nd and 3rd tops of the wedge lasted only a couple of days, the wedge is small. Any reversal down will therefore probably be minor. This means that the best the bears can probably get is a trading range over the next few months. <\/p>\n<p>However, if there is a strong break below the August 31 bottom of the wedge, the pullback could fall for a measured move down. That would therefore be a 50% pullback. In addition, it would be a test of the top of the 2 year trading range at around 1.1600. Yet, the odds still would favor a trading range, albeit big, rather than a bear trend.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe 5 minute chart traded in a 30 pip range overnight. Therefore day traders are scalping. Since there is a wedge top on the daily chart, the overnight rally will probably form a lower high. This is because even a small reversal down from a wedge top usually has at least a small 2nd leg sideways to down. As a result, swing traders on the 5 minute chart will sell this rally, looking for a test of yesterday&#8217;s low. In addition, that would be a test f the 20 day exponential moving average.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-4-600x341.png\" alt=\"Emini new all-time high and tight trading range\" width=\"600\" height=\"341\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-70620\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-4-600x341.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-4-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-4-768x436.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/09\/ES-4.png 1899w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Since the Emini was in a small trading range today, there were very few reasonable trades for beginners.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nToday was the 3rd consecutive day with mostly trading range price action. It is therefore in breakout mode going into next week&#8217;s FOMC announcement.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>FOMC next week is more important to Emini traders than hurricanes Updated 6:40 a.m. The Emini opened within yesterday&#8217;s range. In addition, yesterday was a trading range day. Finally, after 2 bull days in a broad bull channel, the odds are that today will be a disappointing day for the bulls. Therefore, the odds are [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-70568","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70568","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70568"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70568\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70568"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70568"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70568"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}