{"id":71607,"date":"2017-10-17T06:20:59","date_gmt":"2017-10-17T13:20:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=71607"},"modified":"2018-05-22T08:10:24","modified_gmt":"2018-05-22T15:10:24","slug":"emini-october-earnings-reports-but-buy-climax-increases-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-october-earnings-reports-but-buy-climax-increases-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini October earnings reports, but buy climax increases risk<br \/>Intraday market update: October 17, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini October earnings reports, but buy climax increases risk<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">Updated 6:45 a.m.<\/p>\n<p>Today began with a small doji in the middle of yesterday&#8217;s range. This reduced the odds of a big trend day and it increases the odds that today will be another mostly trading range day. Additionally, it increases the chances for a trading range open. This means that the Emini might go mostly sideways in a limit order market for an hour or two before it decides on the direction of the 1st swing.<\/p>\n<p>While any day can become a strong trend day at any time, in the absence of consecutive big trend bars, the odds favor an 8th consecutive trading range day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe Emini again yesterday sold off on the open from a new all-time high. Yet, there is still an obvious measured move target on the daily chart that is just 7 ticks above yesterday&#8217;s high. The odds are that the Emini will reach it. However, because the past 7 days have been mostly sideways, the odds favor a mostly sideways day again today.<\/p>\n<p>There is a 7 day wedge top after a buy climax on the daily chart, In addition, there are sell climaxes on the weekly and monthly charts. Therefore this small wedge top has a better chance of leading to a major reversal on the daily chart. The odds favor the start of a 100+ point pullback within the next few weeks. This therefore increases the odds of one or more big bear bars. <\/p>\n<p>In addition, since a selloff is likely, traders have to consider the opposite. Whenever something is likely, the opposite becomes more likely. Therefore, there is also an increased chance of a brief strong bull breakout as well over the next couple weeks.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is down 1 point in the Globex session. The day session got to within 2 points of a major measured move target yesterday. The bulls will try to get to that target again this week. However, because the weekly and monthly charts are historically overbought, there is a higher probability of a strong reversal down from this level. Furthermore, if there is a strong selloff, the odds would begin to shift in favor of a 1 &#8211; 3 month pullback.<\/p>\n<p>Until there is a reversal, there is no reversal. The past 7 days have been small and mostly sideways. Since markets have inertia, it makes another small and sideways day likely again today. However, there have been several days over that past 2 weeks where there was strong early selling. Since a big bear day is becoming increasingly likely, traders should expect that one of these early selloffs will lead to a big bear day and not another trading range day.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-10.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-10-600x337.png\" alt=\"Emini wedge and head and shoulders bottom\" width=\"600\" height=\"337\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-71679\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-10-600x337.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-10-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-10-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/EC-13.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/EC-13-600x336.png\" alt=\"The EURUSD daily Forex chart has a head and shoulders top and a double bottom bull flag.\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-71683\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/EC-13-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/EC-13-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/EC-13-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The daily EURUSD Forex chart has been in a trading range for 3 months. It therefore has both a reasonable buy setup and a reasonable sell setup. The bulls rallied from a double bottom and a small wedge bottom and are likely to get a small 2nd leg sideways to up. The bears overnight broke below a 3 day bull flag. They want a strong break below the big double bottom because that would trigger a head and shoulders top sell signal.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe daily EURUSD Forex chart broke below a 3 day bull flag overnight. While good for the bears, the odds still favor at least a small leg sideways to up. However, if the bears get a strong break below the bottom of the 3 month range, it would trigger the head and shoulders top. The odds would then favor a measured move down to around the July 5 low. Since most trading range breakouts fail, the odds still favor a continuation of the trading range. <\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, patterns usually have fairly good symmetry. If last week&#8217;s high ends up as the right shoulder of the 3 month trading range top, the symmetry would not be good. The right shoulder began with last week&#8217;s low. This means that it has lasted only 2 weeks. The left shoulder and the head each lasted a month or more. This reduces the chances that the right shoulder is complete. Finally, the bears need a strong breakout and strong follow-through selling before traders will conclude that the daily chart has converted into a bear trend.<\/p>\n<p>The bulls are disappoint by last night&#8217;s selloff. Yet, the small wedge bottom from 2 weeks ago and the big double bottom is still in effect. The odds therefore still favor at least a small 2nd leg sideways to up after last week&#8217;s strong 2 day rally after the buy signal.<\/p>\n<h4> Weekly 20 Gap Bar buy signal<\/h4>\n<p>The weekly chart has sold off in a tight channel for 7 weeks. It therefore will probably need at least a micro double bottom. This means that this selloff will probably test the October 6 low at some point in the next few weeks. That would also create a 20 Gap Bar buy signal. The bulls have been buying above the 20 week exponential moving average for more than 20 weeks. This means that there is a gap below the low off every bar and the  moving average. Once they probably get a chance to buy at an average price, they will probably will take it. This reduces the chances of a big selloff over the next several weeks.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nWhile the 5 minute chart sold off in the Asian session, it has been in a 25 pip range for the past 7 hours. The trading range is a triangle, and it is in a 4 day bear trend. The odds therefore favor at least a small bear breakout. Yet, since the daily chart still is likely to have at least a small 2nd leg up from this 4 day selloff, bulls will watch for a reversal up within the next 2 weeks.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-11.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-11-600x338.png\" alt=\"Emini small day at measured move target and buy climax.\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-71710\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-11-600x338.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-11-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/ES-11-768x433.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Today was a small day, and the 8th day in a tight wedge bull channel. It had a small bull breakout at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nThe Emini&#8217;s high yesterday was within 7 ticks of a major measured move target on the daily chart (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/market-analysis\/emini-october-earnings-season-pullback-below-2500\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">see the weekend update<\/a>). The odds still favor a test of that resistance. However, because the weekly and monthly charts are historically overbought, the odds favor a 1 &#8211; 3 month correction starting within a few weeks, and possibly this week. The 8 day wedge top might lead to a major reversal on the daily chart. However, any selloff will probably last only 1 &#8211; 3 months and become a bull flag on the weekly and monthly charts.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini October earnings reports, but buy climax increases risk Updated 6:45 a.m. Today began with a small doji in the middle of yesterday&#8217;s range. This reduced the odds of a big trend day and it increases the odds that today will be another mostly trading range day. Additionally, it increases the chances for a trading [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-71607","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71607","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71607"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71607\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71607"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71607"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71607"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}