{"id":73185,"date":"2017-12-05T06:20:15","date_gmt":"2017-12-05T14:20:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=73185"},"modified":"2018-05-19T06:22:15","modified_gmt":"2018-05-19T13:22:15","slug":"emini-stalling-awaiting-congress-votes-budget-reconciliation-tax-cut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-stalling-awaiting-congress-votes-budget-reconciliation-tax-cut\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini stalling awaiting Congress votes on budget reconciliation and tax cut<br \/>Intraday market update: December 5, 2017"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini stalling awaiting Congress votes on budget reconciliation and tax cut<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">Updated 6:43 a.m.<\/p>\n<p>While yesterday was a sell signal bar on the daily chart, it was an extreme sell climax on the 5 minute chart. That means that there is only a 25% chance of a big bear day today. However, if there is a strong selloff, traders will swing trade. Also, those 3 good bull bars around 2647 are magnets. Since there is a 75% chance of at least a couple of hours of sideways to up trading that begins by the end of the 2nd hour. those are magnets above.<\/p>\n<p>The 1st reversal up will be a minor reversal since yesterday&#8217;s channel was tight. If the reversal is big, the bulls will then probably get a higher low major trend reversal attempt. They are trying to get a reversal up from above yesterday&#8217;s low to prevent the sell signal on the daily chart from triggering. However, even if today trades below yesterday&#8217;s low the downside is probably not great since yesterday was climactic.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, today will probably be mostly a trading range day, even if it trades below yesterday&#8217;s low. If it is an inside day, it could get an early low of the day. The target for the bulls is yesterday&#8217;s trading range around 2655.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nYesterday gapped up to a new all-time high, but sold off in a trend resumption down day. It is a sell signal bar for a micro double top with Thursday&#8217;s high. Yet, the Emini will probably go mostly sideways into Friday&#8217;s vote on the continuing budget resolution. However, if there is a big bear trend day tomorrow, the odds that a 5% correction has begun would be 40 &#8211; 50%.<\/p>\n<p>As strong as last month&#8217;s rally was on the daily chart, bear bars and dojis followed big bull bars. This usually results in a trading range, which might now be forming.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is up 4 points in the Globex session. That is close enough to yesterday&#8217;s low so that the odds favor a test below yesterday&#8217;s low. Yesterday is a sell signal bar for a micro double top on the daily chart. Consequently, traders want to know if there are more buyers or sellers below its low. <\/p>\n<p>Since most reversals fail, the odds are against a big bear trend day today. However, with the daily, weekly, and monthly charts all in buy climaxes, the Emini can form a huge bear trend day at any time. More likely, the 3 day tight trading range will continue. This is especially true since Friday&#8217;s vote on the continuing budget resolution is a major catalyst. The Emini will probably wait for the vote before having a big move up or down.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-4-600x336.png\" alt=\"Emini bear trend resumption before congress vote on budget and Trump tax cuts.\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-73254\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-4-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-4-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-4-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/EC-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/EC-2-600x336.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex chart in tight trading range before congress budget resolution vote and trump tax cuts\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-73274\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/EC-2-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/EC-2-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/EC-2-768x430.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart is in a 9 day tight trading range. After its parabolic wedge top, the minimum target for the pullback is a test of the 30 day exponential moving average.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart has been in a tight range for 9 days. It is pulling back from a parabolic wedge top. Therefore, it is likely to have at least a 2 legged sideways to down pullback to support. It has met the minimum of 2 legs sideways to down. Yet, the nearest support is last week&#8217;s low and the 20 day EMA. Therefore, this pullback is likely to fall more. Furthermore, it could reach the November 21 major higher low.<\/p>\n<p>The bulls want the November rally to resume and to break above the September high. However, that is at major resistance on the monthly chart. Consequently, a rally to the September high will probably stall. <\/p>\n<p>Trading ranges resist breaking out. There is no sign that this 5 month trading range or the bigger 2 year range is about to break into a trend. The odds are that the 5 month range will continue for at least another few weeks.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe 5 minute chart has been in a 35 pip range. Furthermore, it is still withing the 5 day pullback from last week&#8217;s parabolic wedge top. While the odds favor more trading range trading, they also favor a test down to at least last week&#8217;s low. This is about 30 pips below the over night low. The 5 minute chart has sold off in a tight channel for the past 3 hours. <\/p>\n<p>The bulls will probably need at least a small double bottom before they can regain control. There is no sign of a bottom yet. Therefore, this selloff might continue down to below last week&#8217;s low. Once there, traders will try to stop the selling with a double bottom with last week&#8217;s low. If they cannot get one, the next support is the November 21 low just above 1.1700.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-5.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-5-600x335.png\" alt=\"Emini bear reversal day before budget reconciliation\" width=\"600\" height=\"335\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-73293\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-5-600x335.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-5-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/ES-5-768x429.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The Emini rallied from above yesterday&#8217;s low, but then reversed down. When it fell below yesterday&#8217;s low, it triggered a sell signal on the daily chart.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nYesterday was a sell signal bar on the daily chart. The Emini opened above yesterday&#8217;s low and rallied. The bulls were therefore trying to create an inside day. Yet, the rally failed and the Emini reversed down. The bears got their breakout below yesterday&#8217;s low. They therefore triggered the sell signal on the daily chart.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini stalling awaiting Congress votes on budget reconciliation and tax cut Updated 6:43 a.m. While yesterday was a sell signal bar on the daily chart, it was an extreme sell climax on the 5 minute chart. That means that there is only a 25% chance of a big bear day today. However, if there is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-73185","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73185","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=73185"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73185\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=73185"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=73185"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=73185"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}