{"id":74017,"date":"2018-01-03T06:20:47","date_gmt":"2018-01-03T14:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=74017"},"modified":"2018-05-15T23:48:23","modified_gmt":"2018-05-16T06:48:23","slug":"trump-rally-contributing-january-barometer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/trump-rally-contributing-january-barometer\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump rally contributing to January barometer <br \/>Intraday market update: January 3, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Trump rally contributing to January barometer<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">Updated 6:44 a.m.<\/p>\n<p>The Emini had a small gap up and broke to a new all-time high. The 1st 2 bars were big bull bars closing near their highs. This makes either a bull trend day or a trading range day likely. If today is a trading range day, it could pull back below yesterday&#8217;s high before finding a bottom.<\/p>\n<p>The bears want the early rally to be a buy vacuum test of the 2700 Big Round Number. They want a parabolic wedge top and early high of the day. They will need either 3 consecutive strong bear bars or an Endless Pullback to convince traders that today will be a bear trend day.<\/p>\n<p>At the moment, the Emini is Always In Long. Yet, the bears are trying for the parabolic wedge top.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nYesterday&#8217;s gap up and late rally reversed Friday&#8217;s selling. The daily chart is still in a bull trend. Therefore, the odds continue to favor higher prices. Yet, there have been many bear bars in the tight trading range of the past 3 weeks. This is a sign of selling pressure. In addition, the buy climaxes on the daily, weekly, and monthly charts are the most extreme in history. Therefore the odds favor a 5% correction beginning soon. The bulls know this as well, but will keep buying until there are consecutive big bear days.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is up 4 points in the Globex market. It might therefore gap up to a new all-time high. The bears want a double top with the all-time high of 2 weeks ago. That high is also the top of a 3 week trading range. Unless the bulls get a strong breakout above the range today or tomorrow, yesterday&#8217;s rally will probably fail and the 3 week trading range will then continue.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday&#8217;s reversal up was strong enough to lead to higher prices for a few days. This increases the odds of bull trend days. Nine-five percent of all bull trend bars on the daily chart have a visible tail on the bottom. This is almost always caused by an early selloff that reverses up. Consequently, the bulls will look for a reversal up from an early selloff. In addition, they know that there is an increased chance of a bull trend day, and therefore will be ready to swing trade.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-1-600x335.png\" alt=\"Emini trend resumption before government shut down vote\" width=\"600\" height=\"335\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-74123\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-1-600x335.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-1-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-1-768x428.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-1-600x334.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex double top and wedge rally before shutdown vote.\" width=\"600\" height=\"334\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-74141\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-1-600x334.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-1-300x167.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/EC-1-768x427.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The bears want a wedge rally to a double top. Yet, the 4 consecutive big bull bars are strong enough so that the bulls will buy a test of the November 27 high.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe 4 day rally is testing the top of the 6 month trading range, which is the bottom of a 15 year trading range. Since the 4 day rally has been strong, the bears will probably need at least a micro double top to create a reversal down. More likely, the 1st pullback will become a bull flag and the bulls will again try to get the breakout. Since the EURUSD daily chart is in a trading range, pullbacks usually fall below support. Therefore, the pullback will probably reach the November 27 high within a week.<\/p>\n<p>The bears hope that the 4 day rally is just a buy vacuum test of resistance. They see a wedge rally from the October 6 low and a double top with the September 8 high. Because the momentum up is strong, the bears will probably need at least a micro double top before they can get a reversal down from the resistance at the top of the 5 month range and at the bottom of the 15 year trading range above. Consequently, the downside risk is to around 1.1950 over the next week.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart pulled back about 70 pips from yesterday&#8217;s high in a broad bear channel. The bulls are searching for a bottom of what they see as a pullback on the daily chart. However, the 4 day rally to resistance has been climactic. Consequently, the odds favor a trading range over the next few days. <\/p>\n<p>Because the momentum up has been strong over the past week, the bulls will scalp and swing trade. Many will wait to swing trade until after at least a couple legs down from yesterday&#8217;s high and a test below the November 27 high. Alternatively, they will wait for a strong breakout above the top of the 5 month trading trading range. <\/p>\n<p>Since the bears know that a trading range is likely  over the next few days, day traders will sell rallies for scalps.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-2-600x336.png\" alt=\"Emini bull trend but buy climax\" width=\"600\" height=\"336\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-74162\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-2-600x336.png 600w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-2-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-2-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/01\/ES-2.png 1908w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The Emini rallied from the open and formed a trend from the open bull trend. The open remained the low, which is unusual. The Emini ended with a wedge bull channel.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nThe Emini gapped up and the open remained the low of the day. That happens only about once a year. The Trend From The Open bull trend ended with a wedge bull channel. That makes an early trading range likely tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>This is the 2nd day of a strong reversal up. The odds therefore favor at least slightly higher prices. However, the odds are that the 3 week tight trading range will be the Final Bull Flag on the daily chart. This means that this rally will probably get pulled back into the range within a week or two.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trump rally contributing to January barometer Updated 6:44 a.m. The Emini had a small gap up and broke to a new all-time high. The 1st 2 bars were big bull bars closing near their highs. This makes either a bull trend day or a trading range day likely. If today is a trading range day, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-74017","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74017","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74017"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/74017\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74017"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=74017"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=74017"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}