{"id":76578,"date":"2018-03-22T06:20:46","date_gmt":"2018-03-22T13:20:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=76578"},"modified":"2018-05-11T09:47:12","modified_gmt":"2018-05-11T16:47:12","slug":"emini-trend-resumption-march-2-low-2650","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-trend-resumption-march-2-low-2650\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini trend resumption down to March 2 low around 2650
Intraday market update: March 22, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"

Emini trend resumption down to March 2 low around 2650<\/h2>\n

Updated 6:45 a.m.<\/p>\n

Today opened with a big gap down and a bear bar. However, the low was a Leg 1 = Leg 2 measured move from Monday’s selloff. In addition, it was a measured move down from yesterday’s range. Finally, it was a test of the 2017 close. This is a possible low of the day.<\/p>\n

The 2nd bar reversed up but could not close on its high. However, this is a possible low for the 1st hour. The bears will try for a wedge or double top bear flag at the moving average. The bulls want a double bottom or a higher low major trend reversal. Since the 1st 2 bars both have tails, both are weak. This increases the chances of a trading range open and a sideways to up move to the EMA over the 1st hour. Those 2 bars also reduce the chance of a strong trend day up or down.<\/p>\n

Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n


\nThe Emini rallied strongly yesterday to above Monday’s high. This triggered a buy signal on the daily chart. Yet, after 7 bear days, the odds were that there would be more sellers than buyers above Tuesday’s high. The weekly chart is still on a sell signal after breaking below last week’s low. The market is deciding whether the 6 bar selloff on the daily chart is a bull flag or the start of a swing down. Because the monthly chart is so bullish, the odds favor a new all-time high by the end of April, whether or not there is a test down to the March 2 low 1st.<\/p>\n

The bar on the weekly chart closes tomorrow. The bulls want a rally to above last Friday’s low, which would close the gap on the weekly chart. A gap up on any day will create an island bottom on the daily chart. This would negate the 6 day island top. <\/p>\n

The bears want the week to close on its low. That would be a strong entry bar for the weekly sell signal. It would therefore make a test of the March 2 low likely. Since there were 7 consecutive bear days over the past 2 weeks, the odds favor sideways to down trading for at least a few days.<\/p>\n

Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n


\nThe Emini is down 29 points in the Globex session. It is therefore in a 2nd leg down from Monday’s strong selloff. Today will open with a big gap down. When there is a big gap, there is an increased chance of a trend day. Furthermore, if there is a trend, it is more likely to be in the direction of the gap (here, down). <\/p>\n

Yet, a big gap down means that the Emini will be far below its EMA. Traders do not like to sell when the market is far below its average price. As a result, a big gap down usually results in a sideways 1st hour, even if there is an initial selloff for about 5 bars. In the 1st hour, the Emini typically begins to go sideways to up to the EMA. Once there, the bears will look for a double top or wedge bear flag to sell, hoping for a bear trend and early high of the day.<\/p>\n

The bulls prefer an immediate strong reversal up. About 10% of the time, there is a series of big bull bars on the open and the day becomes a strong bull trend day. More often, the best the bulls can get is a trading range for about an hour. If they succeed, they then want a bull breakout above the range, and then a swing up to close the gap.<\/p>\n

Yesterday’s setups<\/h2>\n


\n\"Emini<\/a><\/p>\n

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

EURUSD pullback from breakout above small bull flag<\/h2>\n


\n\"EURUSD<\/a><\/p>\n

The EURUSD daily Forex chart has been in a tight trading range for 5 days. It is also in the middle of a 3 month range. There is no sign of a breakout up or down.<\/p>\n


\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart is almost completely neutral and in breakout mode. It has been in a tight range for 5 days in the middle of a 3 month trading range. Since the trend before the trading range was up, the bulls are slightly more likely to get an upside breakout. But, their advantage is minimal. <\/p>\n

Traders see a bull pattern one day and then an equally hopeful bear pattern a few days later. Until there is a breakout, there is no breakout. It is important to realize that trading ranges can last longer than what traders think is reasonable. <\/p>\n

Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n


\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart sold off 80 pips overnight. The bears want the reversal down to continue. However, the bulls see it as a 50% retracement of yesterday’s rally. That rally was from a 3 week wedge bull flag. Therefore, if the bulls can halt the selling at around 1.23 and then get a rally, they would try for a 2nd leg up from the rally that began on March 1. <\/p>\n

A Leg 1 = Leg 2 measured move is a reasonable target. That is around the 1.2550 area and the February high. The next couple of days are important. if the bulls can create a couple consecutive big bull days, the odds will favor a test of 1.2550. Since there is a bear trend line on the monthly chart above 1.26, that magnet would be the next target.<\/p>\n

The bulls will look for a bull breakout today or tomorrow. If they get it, they will swing part of their position for a test of 1.26. <\/p>\n

The bears always want the opposite. They need to end the bull case. A break below the March 20 low would be a break below the 3 week bull flag. That would increase the chance of a test of the March 1 low.
\n<\/p>\n

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n


\n\"Emini<\/a><\/p>\n

The Emini had a big gap down and then a sell climax that fell below the 2017 close. After a strong rally, it collapsed into the close to below the March low.<\/p>\n


\nAfter a sell climax to below the 2017 close, the bulls got a strong reversal up. The bears got trend resumption down in the middle of the day. The selloff broke below the March low in a huge sell climax. The bears need follow-through tomorrow to increase their odds of a test of the February low.<\/p>\n

Tomorrow is the last day of the week. This week is an entry bar on the weekly chart for a Low 2 sell signal. The bears want this week to be a big bear bar closing on its low. That would increase the odds of follow-through selling next week, and then a test of the February low.
\n<\/p>\n

See the weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n

\n

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Emini trend resumption down to March 2 low around 2650 Updated 6:45 a.m. Today opened with a big gap down and a bear bar. However, the low was a Leg 1 = Leg 2 measured move from Monday’s selloff. In addition, it was a measured move down from yesterday’s range. Finally, it was a test […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-76578","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76578"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76578\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}