{"id":80282,"date":"2018-08-01T06:20:21","date_gmt":"2018-08-01T13:20:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=80282"},"modified":"2018-08-01T14:18:16","modified_gmt":"2018-08-01T21:18:16","slug":"emini-50-retracement-2-day-selloff-fomc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-50-retracement-2-day-selloff-fomc\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini 50% retracement of 2 day selloff ahead of FOMC <br \/>Intraday market update: Wednesday August 1, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini 50% retracement of 2 day selloff ahead of FOMC<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">I will update again at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nYesterday retraced about half of the 2 day selloff. The odds were that the Emini would bounce at the 20 day EMA and try to get more neutral ahead of today&#8217;s FOMC meeting. <\/p>\n<p>However, the 2 day selloff was surprisingly strong. A Surprise reversal usually has at least a small 2nd leg sideways to down. But, sometimes there is a bounce that retraces all of the selloff before the bears get their 2nd leg. Therefore, the odds are that traders will sell this rally, even if it tests Friday&#8217;s high. The bears are trying to create a lower high major trend reversal and head and shoulders top on the 60 minute chart.<\/p>\n<p>Because yesterday had a strong rally, there is a 50% chance of some trend resumption up early today. However, the Emini is now around the middle of the 2 day selloff. It will therefore likely go sideways ahead of today&#8217;s FOMC meeting. <\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is trading about 6 points below yesterday&#8217;s close. It will therefore likely open within yesterday&#8217;s 4 hour upper trading range. The legs up and down yesterday were big enough to make at least one swing likely again today. But, today&#8217;s FOMC meeting is an important catalyst. Financial markets usually do not have big trends on the day before major news announcements. <\/p>\n<p>A 1 &#8211; 3 day rally was likely after the 2 big bear days. The odds favor a test of Monday&#8217;s low. I said last week that a 50 &#8211; 100 point selloff was likely. Therefore, the Emini will probably form a lower high this week and have a 2nd leg sideways to down. While that can begin today, it likely will wait until after the FOMC report. Furthermore, today&#8217;s report could lead to a rally to Friday&#8217;s high at around 1850 before there is a 2nd leg down.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-ahead-of-FOMC-meeting.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-ahead-of-FOMC-meeting-680x381.png\" alt=\"Emini bull trending trading range day ahead of FOMC meeting\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80359\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-ahead-of-FOMC-meeting-680x381.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-ahead-of-FOMC-meeting-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-ahead-of-FOMC-meeting-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/07\/Emini-bull-trending-trading-range-day-ahead-of-FOMC-meeting.png 1686w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex at apex of triangle ahead of Wednesday&#8217;s FOMC news<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-apex-of-nested-triangle-ahead-of-Wednesdays-FOMC-new.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-apex-of-nested-triangle-ahead-of-Wednesdays-FOMC-new-680x384.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex apex of nested triangle ahead of Wednesday&#039;s FOMC new\" width=\"680\" height=\"384\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80370\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-apex-of-nested-triangle-ahead-of-Wednesdays-FOMC-new-680x384.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-apex-of-nested-triangle-ahead-of-Wednesdays-FOMC-new-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-apex-of-nested-triangle-ahead-of-Wednesdays-FOMC-new-768x433.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-Forex-apex-of-nested-triangle-ahead-of-Wednesdays-FOMC-new.png 1689w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart has nested triangles within a 3 month trading range. Yesterday reversed down from a breakout above the top of the bigger triangle. There was no strong selloff today yet and the chart is still in breakout mode.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart is at the apex of nested triangles that are within a 3 month trading range. Yesterday reversed down from a breakout above the bear trend line of the bigger triangle. Today, so far, is a bad entry bar. The bears now want a successful breakout below the triangle after the failed bull breakout. But, the bulls see the 2 day selloff as a pullback from the breakout attempt. <\/p>\n<p>Trading ranges are constantly trying to breakout, but 80% of attempts fail. All financials markets will probably go sideways into today&#8217;s 11 a.m. FOMC announcement. While traders hope that the news will lead to a successful breakout, the odds still favor a continuation of the 3 month trading range. There is no breakout until there is a clear strong breakout with follow-through. While that will probably happen soon, traders are unwilling to hold onto positions for more than a couple of days until it occurs. <\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nToday is the entry day for the reversal down from the top of the triangle on the daily chart. Yet, the 5 minute chart has been in a 30 pip range overnight. There is no sense that the price is horribly wrong and that the market has to quickly move to a new price. Today&#8217;s 11 a.m. FOMC announcement is the next obvious catalyst. The extremely tight trading range of the past 2 weeks will probably continue at least until then. Therefore, day traders will keep scalping. <\/p>\n<p>A breakout can come at any time. But, unless it is strong and has good follow-through, day traders will keep looking for reversals.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-trending-trading-range-day-after-FOMC-announcement-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-trending-trading-range-day-after-FOMC-announcement-1-680x381.png\" alt=\"Emini trending trading range day after FOMC announcement\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80393\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-trending-trading-range-day-after-FOMC-announcement-1-680x381.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-trending-trading-range-day-after-FOMC-announcement-1-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-trending-trading-range-day-after-FOMC-announcement-1-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-trending-trading-range-day-after-FOMC-announcement-1.png 1678w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nThe  Emini formed an outside down day yesterday. It was also a bear trending trading range day. Tomorrow has an increased chance of being an inside day. It would then form an ioi breakout mode setup. <\/p>\n<p>The odds still favor a 2nd leg down before a break above last week&#8217;s high. But, there will probably be a new all-time high within a couple months.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini 50% retracement of 2 day selloff ahead of FOMC I will update again at the end of the day. Pre-Open market analysis Yesterday retraced about half of the 2 day selloff. The odds were that the Emini would bounce at the 20 day EMA and try to get more neutral ahead of today&#8217;s FOMC [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-80282","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80282","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80282"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80282\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80282"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80282"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80282"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}