{"id":80288,"date":"2018-08-06T06:20:39","date_gmt":"2018-08-06T13:20:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=80288"},"modified":"2018-08-06T13:44:18","modified_gmt":"2018-08-06T20:44:18","slug":"emini-follow-through-buying-after-consecutive-outside-day","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-follow-through-buying-after-consecutive-outside-day\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini follow-through buying after consecutive outside day<br \/>Intraday market update: Monday August 6, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini follow-through buying after consecutive outside day<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">I will update again at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<p>Thursday was an outside up day after an outside down day on Wednesday. It was therefore a buy signal bar. Friday was the entry bar on the daily chart, and it provided reasonable follow-through buying. This increases the odds of a new all-time high within a couple of months. It might even come this week.<\/p>\n<p>The bears need to create strong bear days before traders will believe that they are back in control. The odds favor higher prices.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe Emini is down 1 point in the Globex market. The market only rarely has 3 consecutive strong trend days. It has been in a tight channel for 2 days. Ninety percent of tight channels end by the end of the 3rd day. They end by converting into a trading range for about 10 bars on the 60 minute chart. That is about a day and a half. Therefore, the odds favor more trading range trading today and certainly by the end of tomorrow. <\/p>\n<p>Consequently, day traders expect a 10 point selloff today or tomorrow. But, the 2 day  rally was strong. Day traders will buy every 10 &#8211; 20 point reversal attempt, expecting a new high within a day or two.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><\/p>\n<h2>Friday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FRIDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-after-yesterdays-outside-up.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-after-yesterdays-outside-up-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini small pullback bull trend after yesterday&#039;s outside up\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80440\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-after-yesterdays-outside-up-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-after-yesterdays-outside-up-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-after-yesterdays-outside-up-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-small-pullback-bull-trend-after-yesterdays-outside-up.png 1690w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex has 5 consecutive bear trend days<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-daily-Forex-chart-has-5-consecutive-bear-days.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-daily-Forex-chart-has-5-consecutive-bear-days-680x381.png\" alt=\"EURUSD daily Forex chart has 5 consecutive bear days\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80493\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-daily-Forex-chart-has-5-consecutive-bear-days-680x381.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-daily-Forex-chart-has-5-consecutive-bear-days-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-daily-Forex-chart-has-5-consecutive-bear-days-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/EURUSD-daily-Forex-chart-has-5-consecutive-bear-days.png 1691w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart has a bear trend day so far today today. If it remains a bear day, it will create the 1st streak of 5 consecutive bear days since May 18. Even if it does not, there have not been 4 consecutive trend days up or down in the entire 3 month trading range. This increases the chances of a successful bear breakout.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart had its 4th consecutive bear trend day on Friday. This is the 1st streak of 4 trend days up or down in the entire 3 month trading range. So far, today is another bear trend day. The last streak of 5 consecutive trend days up or down came during the May collapse. <\/p>\n<p>All trading ranges eventually breakout, even though most attempts lead to reversals and a continuation of the range. This breakout attempt is different. Whenever a trading range begins to have a streak of 4 or 5 consecutive trend days up or down, the odds are that a successful breakout is about to happen. Here, the bear days are a sign of sustained selling pressure. Therefore, traders should expect a break below 1.15 within the next week. This is true even if there is a 100 pip reversal up to around the 20 day EMA 1st. Therefore, traders will sell rallies. <\/p>\n<p>Furthermore, traders will look for the selloff to fall for about a measured move down. Since the 3 month range is about 300 pips tall, traders will look for the move to reach around 1.12 over the next few months. Unless the bulls create a very strong reversal up before then, the odds are that the bear trend is resuming.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart sold off 40 pips overnight. While the past 5 days have not been big bear days, the number of bear days is important. A chart has 2 variables, price and time. Many trends begin with time (a streak of trend days) before price. Traders now believe that there will be a successful breakout below the 3 month range. <\/p>\n<p>Every trend will have many reversal attempts. But, my 80% inertia rule also applies to trends. Once a market is in a trend, 80% of reversal attempts will fail and become bear flags. While the daily chart is still in its 3 month range, it is also in an early bear trend. Therefore, day traders will look to sell 50 &#8211; 100 pip rallies this week. They expect each to lead to a new low. <\/p>\n<p>Because the selloff on the 5 minute chart was not climactic, bull day traders are buying reversals for 10 &#8211; 20 pip scalps. The bears will sell rallies for scalps and swings.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-bull-trend-and-then-triangle.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-bull-trend-and-then-triangle-680x382.png\" alt=\"Emini bull trend and then triangle\" width=\"680\" height=\"382\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-80506\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-bull-trend-and-then-triangle-680x382.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-bull-trend-and-then-triangle-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-bull-trend-and-then-triangle-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-bull-trend-and-then-triangle.png 1683w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I sometimes also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not in a position at the moment, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nWhile the 3 day rally has been strong, it is also a buy vacuum test of the July high and the 2850 Big Round Number. Furthermore, the Emini had its 3rd consecutive day in a tight bull channel on the 5 minute chart. This is unusual and therefore climactic. The odds favor a pause for 1 &#8211; 1 1\/2 days starting within 2 days. <\/p>\n<p>If the bulls get a breakout above today&#8217;s triangle, the triangle would likely be a Final Bull Flag. The result would be a pullback into the triangle on the 5 minute chart. However, the bull trend is strong enough to make a bear swing unlikely without at least a micro double top on the daily chart.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini follow-through buying after consecutive outside day I will update again at the end of the day. Thursday was an outside up day after an outside down day on Wednesday. It was therefore a buy signal bar. Friday was the entry bar on the daily chart, and it provided reasonable follow-through buying. This increases the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-80288","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80288","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80288"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80288\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80288"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80288"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80288"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}