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![\"Emini](\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/08\/Emini-monthly-candlestick-chart-with-likely-breakout-to-new-all-time-high.png\" "\\"\\"")
<\/a><\/p>\nThe August candlestick on the monthly S&P500 Emini futures chart so far is a bull bar. The bears want a double top with the January high, but the odds favor a new all-time high soon. <\/p>\n
The monthly S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart is resuming its bull trend from 2017. Although the cash index made a new high this week, it was only by $3. However, the momentum up in the Emini is strong. Therefore, the odds favor a new all-time high next week.<\/p>\n
The 2017 bull trend is strong enough to make a bear trend reversal unlikely. Even if the Emini reverses down from a double top, the bulls will likely buy the selloff. It therefore would probably last only a month or so before the rally resumes.<\/p>\n
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Weekly S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart:
Emini possible gap up above January all-time high <\/h2>\n
The weekly S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart this week got to within 6 points of the January all-time high. In addition, the week closed on its high and the 8 week bull channel lacks strong bear bars. The odds favor a new all-time high next week. The rally is strong enough so that the Emini might even gap above the January high. <\/p>\n The weekly S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart rallied strongly for 8 weeks. There were no big bear bars in the rally. That lack of selling pressure makes a trend reversal unlikely. The best the bears will probably get is a few weeks of sideways to down trading. <\/p>\n The 5 month bull trend resumption is strong enough to make a new all-time high likely next week. This week closed on its high just below the resistance of the January high. Therefore, Monday might gap up to a new all-time high next week. Whether or not it does, if next week is a big bull trend bar, the odds are that the rally will continue up over the next several months to the measured move targets around 3100 and 3250.<\/p>\n The bears need a big bear bar before traders will believe that the rally is failing. Furthermore, they need several consecutive bear bars before traders believe that the bears have begun a swing down. That would take several weeks. Consequently, the downside risk over the next few weeks is small.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The daily S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart has made 3 pushes up since July 23. The rally is therefore a wedge top. However, the 5 month bull trend is strong enough to make a new all-time high likely next week. <\/p>\n The rally on the Emini daily chart since the June 28 low is very strong. Friday closed on its high, and Monday might gap up. A big gap would create a gap above the January all-time high. If Monday is a big bull trend day, the Emini could quickly reach the measured move targets around 3100 and 3250.<\/p>\n Because the daily chart is still in an 7 month trading range, there is a 50% chance of a test down to the middle of the range at around 2700 before reaching the 3100 target. Furthermore, there is a 40% chance of a test of the bottom of the range at around 2550. Finally, as unlikely as it might seem, the bears have a 30% chance of a break below the range and a measured move down. That would be a 20% selloff down to around 2200. However, the bears need to create a series of big bear bars closing near their lows, which is unlikely. Unless they do, the odds continue to favor higher prices. <\/p>\n There are different ways to create measured move targets for the bulls. Using the February low and the January high, a measured move up would be around 3250. There was a double bottom with the February and April lows. The March high is the neck line. The measured move projection is just below 3100. Finally, the 3,000 Big Round Number is a less important psychological target.<\/p>\n Does the Emini need to hit any of these target before falling 10 – 20%? Of course not. But, the momentum up is strong enough to make higher prices likely. These are targets that traders think are reasonable.<\/p>\n The bears see a month-long wedge top at the January high. A reversal down from here would therefore be a big double top in addition to the small wedge top. <\/p>\n But, the bull channel from the June 28 low is tight. Furthermore, there have not been many big bear bars and therefore there has not been significant selling pressure. As a result, a reversal down might have a couple legs and last a couple of weeks, but a major reversal is unlikely. There is support at 2800, which is the June high and the July low.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n
\n<\/a><\/p>\nDaily S&P500 Emini futures candlestick chart:
Strong rally to just below January all-time high<\/h2>\n
\n<\/a><\/p>\nMeasured move targets for the bulls<\/h4>\n
Bears hope for small wedge top reversal at January high<\/h4>\n
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