{"id":82430,"date":"2018-10-18T06:20:56","date_gmt":"2018-10-18T13:20:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=82430"},"modified":"2018-10-18T21:35:32","modified_gmt":"2018-10-19T04:35:32","slug":"emini-bulls-need-follow-through-buying-october-bear-trap","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-bulls-need-follow-through-buying-october-bear-trap\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini bulls need follow-through buying after October bear trap<br \/>Intraday market update: Thursday October 18, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini bulls need follow-through buying after October bear trap<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">I will update again at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nYesterday sold off to the 60 minute EMA and reversed up to above Tuesday&#8217;s high. The 2nd half of the day was a trading range and the day closed just above the open. While bullish, it increases the chance of more trading range trading today. <\/p>\n<p>The bulls still need strong follow-through buying after Tuesday&#8217;s reversal before traders will believe that the bull trend has resumed.<\/p>\n<p>Since the reversal up was strong, the bears will probably need a micro double top before they can resume last week&#8217;s selloff.<\/p>\n<p>The big reversal up created confusion, which usually leads to a trading range for a few days. The bulls will probably get at least some follow-through buying today or tomorrow.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is down 11 points in the Globex session. Since the dominant recent feature is Tuesday&#8217;s strong reversal up, the odds favor at least a small 2nd leg up. The rally might reach the 20 day EMA at around 2850. <\/p>\n<p>Trading ranges usually continue longer than what seems reasonable. Therefore, today might continue yesterday&#8217;s trading range. Traders will look for reversals until there is a sustained breakout up or down. <\/p>\n<p>Yesterday&#8217;s range had lower highs and higher lows. Consequently, it was a triangle. The 1st breakout of a triangle has a 50% chance of failing and reversing. In general, there is a 50% chance that the successful breakout will be up or down. Since Tuesday&#8217;s bull trend was strong, there is a 60% chance of a bull breakout in this case. But, that probability will drift down to 50% if the trading range continues sideways for another day or two.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-bull-trend-reversal-day.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-bull-trend-reversal-day-680x382.png\" alt=\"Emini bull trend reversal day\" width=\"680\" height=\"382\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82527\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-bull-trend-reversal-day-680x382.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-bull-trend-reversal-day-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-bull-trend-reversal-day-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-bull-trend-reversal-day.png 1683w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD Forex higher low in 3 week trading range<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-in-3-week-trading-range.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-in-3-week-trading-range-680x380.png\" alt=\"EURUSD Forex higher low in 3 week trading range\" width=\"680\" height=\"380\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82545\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-in-3-week-trading-range-680x380.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-in-3-week-trading-range-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-in-3-week-trading-range-768x429.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/EURUSD-Forex-higher-low-in-3-week-trading-range.png 1690w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD daily Forex chart is in the bottom half of a 3 week, 200 pip tall trading range. This is in the middle of its 6 month trading range. <\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily Forex chart has been in a 200 pip trading range for 3 weeks. It is now testing support at the October 9 high and 1.15. However, after last week&#8217;s parabolic wedge rally, there might be one more brief leg down to the October 9 low. There will then probably be a bull leg lasting at least a couple of weeks. <\/p>\n<p>While eventually this 6 month range will break into a trend, there is no indication that the is about to happen. Consequently, traders will continue to look for reversals every 2 &#8211; 3 weeks.<\/p>\n<p>The dominant feature is the strong August reversal up from below the bottom of a 4 month trading range. Therefore, as long as pullbacks stay above the August 15 low at 1.13, the odds favor an eventual breakout above the top of the now 6 month range.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart reversed up overnight after testing the October 9 high and the 1.15 Big Round Number. Since Monday&#8217;s selloff was strong, the bulls might need a micro double bottom before they get a rally to last week&#8217;s high. This is especially true after the October 16 wedge top. A selloff from a wedge top typically has at least 2 small legs down.<\/p>\n<p>Because the daily chart is at support, day traders will look to buy reversals up. The overnight rally is likely to have at least a small 2nd leg up. Consequently, the bulls will look to buy the current pullback to around 1.15.<\/p>\n<p>Since a big rally is unlikely after yesterday&#8217;s strong selloff, the bears will sell rallies. They, too, will only scalp because the overnight rally was strong and the chart is at support. <\/p>\n<p>With both the bulls and bears scalping, today will probably form a small trading range.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-wedge-bear-channel.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-wedge-bear-channel-680x381.png\" alt=\"Emini wedge bear channel\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82557\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-wedge-bear-channel-680x381.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-wedge-bear-channel-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-wedge-bear-channel-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/10\/Emini-wedge-bear-channel.png 1683w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nBy trading below yesterday&#8217;s low, the Emini triggered a Low 1 bear flag sell signal. But, yesterday was a bull doji and it followed a big bull day. This is a low probability sell setup. Consequently, the Emini is more likely to go sideways for at least a few days rather than down. The odds are the that 5 day developing trading range will last another week or more.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>Trading Room<\/h4>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4>Charts use Pacific Standard Time<\/h4>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini bulls need follow-through buying after October bear trap I will update again at the end of the day. Pre-Open market analysis Yesterday sold off to the 60 minute EMA and reversed up to above Tuesday&#8217;s high. The 2nd half of the day was a trading range and the day closed just above the open. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-82430","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82430","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82430"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82430\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82430"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82430"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82430"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}