{"id":82833,"date":"2018-11-05T06:20:38","date_gmt":"2018-11-05T14:20:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=82833"},"modified":"2018-11-07T07:08:42","modified_gmt":"2018-11-07T15:08:42","slug":"emini-october-bull-trend-reversal-stalling-ema","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-october-bull-trend-reversal-stalling-ema\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini October bull trend reversal stalling at EMA <br \/>Intraday market update: Monday November 5, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini October bull trend reversal stalling at EMA<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">I will update again at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe Emini formed an outside down day on Friday after a rally to the 20 day EMA. Because the rally followed a parabolic wedge sell climax, there will probably be buyers below. Sell climaxes usually lead to at least 2 legs sideways to up, and last week was the 1st leg up.<\/p>\n<p>The bears want a resumption of the bear trend. They see last week as a pullback to the moving average in a bear trend. Because Friday was outside down at resistance, it is a sell signal bar for today. But, since there will be buyers below, the bear will likely only get a 2 &#8211; 3 day minor reversal down.<\/p>\n<p>If today gaps down, it would create a 3 day island top. But, island tops are minor reversals, so there is no special importance to a gap down today. The bears would need 2 &#8211; 3 big bear days to make traders believe that the bear trend is resuming. More likely, the 3 week trading range will continue.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is up 1 point in the Globex session. That huge bull bar late on Friday is more likely the start of at least a small 2 legged rally than a bull trap. Therefore, there is a slightly increased chance of a bull trend today. <\/p>\n<p>But, because the Emini was sideways for most of Friday, and tomorrow&#8217;s election creates uncertainty, the odds are against a big trend up or down. Therefore, today will probably continue Friday&#8217;s trading range price action.<\/p>\n<p>The bulls want a rally that breaks above last week&#8217;s high, which was Friday&#8217;s high. That would trigger a buy signal on the weekly chart. The tail on the top of last week&#8217;s candlestick is a sign of a lack of conviction. Consequently, it is a weaker buy signal bar. As a result, there is less chance of a strong rally above Friday&#8217;s high this week. More likely, the Emini will continue to only get 2 &#8211; 3 days in one direction before reversing, as it has been doing since the October 16 bull trend day.<\/p>\n<h2>Friday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FRIDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-outside-down-day-after-minor-trend-reversal-up-to-20-day-EMA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-outside-down-day-after-minor-trend-reversal-up-to-20-day-EMA-680x383.png\" alt=\"Emini outside down day after minor trend reversal up to 20 day EMA\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-82978\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-outside-down-day-after-minor-trend-reversal-up-to-20-day-EMA-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-outside-down-day-after-minor-trend-reversal-up-to-20-day-EMA-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-outside-down-day-after-minor-trend-reversal-up-to-20-day-EMA-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-outside-down-day-after-minor-trend-reversal-up-to-20-day-EMA.png 1681w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD weekly Forex chart has double top and double bottom<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-weekly-Forex-chart-has-double-top-and-double-bottom.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-weekly-Forex-chart-has-double-top-and-double-bottom-680x383.png\" alt=\"EURUSD weekly Forex chart has double top and double bottom\" width=\"680\" height=\"383\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-83044\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-weekly-Forex-chart-has-double-top-and-double-bottom-680x383.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-weekly-Forex-chart-has-double-top-and-double-bottom-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-weekly-Forex-chart-has-double-top-and-double-bottom-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-weekly-Forex-chart-has-double-top-and-double-bottom.png 1537w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">The EURUSD weekly Forex chart has a double bottom after a double top. Since last week was a weak buy signal bar and the 6 week bear channel is tight, the odds favor at least a small bear breakout within a few weeks.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD weekly Forex chart has sold off for 2 months. The 6 weeks down from the September 24 high have been in a tight bear channel. Typically, the bulls will need at least a  micro double bottom before they can get a leg up. <\/p>\n<p>This is especially true with last week being only a doji bar. That is a weak buy signal bar. It is usually not a strong enough foundation to support a rally after a strong selloff. Consequently, there are probably more sellers than buyers above last week&#8217;s high. <\/p>\n<p>However, there is both a double bottom and a double top since July. That means that the weekly chart is still in a trading range. It is therefore still in Breakout Mode. Since most trading range breakouts fail, there are probably more buyers than sellers below last week&#8217;s low. In addition, if there was a 100 point bear breakout, the bulls would try to create a reversal up from the bottom of a wedge bull flag that began in November, 2017.<\/p>\n<p>Unless the bulls get a very strong reversal up over the next few weeks, any rally will probably be minor. At the moment, the odds favor a breakout below the double bottom and then a reversal up. <\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute chart had a weak 50 pip selloff over night. By falling below Friday&#8217;s low, it triggered a sell signal on the daily chart. Because Thursday&#8217;s rally was strong, there will probably be buyers below Friday&#8217;s low. That is why the overnight selloff has had so many sideways bars with big tails. It is more likely just a test of Friday&#8217;s low than the start of a breakout below the 3 month double bottom. <\/p>\n<p>Thursday&#8217;s rally was strong enough to get a least a small 2nd leg sideways to up. Therefore, the odds are that today or tomorrow will begin a 2 &#8211; 3 day rally.<\/p>\n<p>Since the momentum down on the weekly chart is strong, the bears will sell the 2 &#8211; 3 day rally. Unless there is a very strong rally, there will probably be a break below the October low in November.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-broad-bull-channel-and-daily-ioi-breakout-mode-pattern.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-broad-bull-channel-and-daily-ioi-breakout-mode-pattern-680x406.png\" alt=\"Emini broad bull channel and daily ioi breakout mode pattern\" width=\"680\" height=\"406\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-83055\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-broad-bull-channel-and-daily-ioi-breakout-mode-pattern-680x406.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-broad-bull-channel-and-daily-ioi-breakout-mode-pattern-300x179.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-broad-bull-channel-and-daily-ioi-breakout-mode-pattern-768x459.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-broad-bull-channel-and-daily-ioi-breakout-mode-pattern.png 1363w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nThe Emini was in a broad bull channel today. It was also a bull inside bar on the daily chart. There is now an ioi breakout mode setup in the middle of a month-long trading range. The bull body and last week&#8217;s rally give the bulls slightly higher odds. But, with tomorrow night&#8217;s election results, Wednesday has a 50% chance of reversing any breakout up or down tomorrow.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>Trading Room<\/h4>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4>Charts use Pacific Standard Time<\/h4>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini October bull trend reversal stalling at EMA I will update again at the end of the day. Pre-Open market analysis The Emini formed an outside down day on Friday after a rally to the 20 day EMA. Because the rally followed a parabolic wedge sell climax, there will probably be buyers below. Sell climaxes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-82833","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82833","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=82833"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/82833\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=82833"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=82833"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=82833"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}