{"id":83500,"date":"2018-11-21T06:20:47","date_gmt":"2018-11-21T14:20:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=83500"},"modified":"2018-11-21T13:40:37","modified_gmt":"2018-11-21T21:40:37","slug":"emini-adage-says-thanksgiving-belongs-bears","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-adage-says-thanksgiving-belongs-bears\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini adage says Thanksgiving belongs to the bears<br \/>Intraday market update: Wednesday November 21, 2018"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2>Emini adage says Thanksgiving belongs to the bears<\/h2>\n<p class=\"caption\">I will update again at the end of the day.<\/p>\n<h2>Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThere is an old-timer&#8217;s stock market and therefore Emini adage that says Thanksgiving belongs to the bears and Christmas belongs to the bulls. I bring it up because it is part of stock market tradition. However, it is a calendar trade, and calendar trades are useless. Never place a trade based on seasonal tendencies because you will lose money over time.<\/p>\n<p>The Emini had a big gap down yesterday, but it was a trading range day. The bulls want a gap up today or soon to create an island bottom. But, an island bottom is a minor reversal pattern and therefore not particularly helpful.<\/p>\n<p>The bears still have their October\/November double top. The October 29 low of 2603.00 is the neck line. A measured move down would to below 2400. It is still more likely that there will be buyers around the current level or down around the February low.<\/p>\n<p>When there is a big gap, like yesterday, the Emini often goes sideways for a few days. It then decides whether there will be follow-through or a reversal. With tomorrow being a holiday and many traders not trading on Friday, there is an increased chance of quiet and therefore sideways trading.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight Emini Globex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EMINI GLOBEX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe Emini is up 19 points in the Globex session. Yesterday&#8217;s selloff was in a bear channel, and 75% off bear channels have bull breakouts. Today will gap above the channel. <\/p>\n<p>Since channels typically evolve into trading ranges, that is what is likely today. This is especially true because of tomorrow is a holiday and markets are usually quiet the day before. However, yesterday ended with a lower low major trend reversal. Consequently, there is a 40% chance of a strong bull trend day today.<\/p>\n<h2>Yesterday&#8217;s setups<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT YESTERDAY'S CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-down-and-parabolic-wedge-bottom-and-wedge-top.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-down-and-parabolic-wedge-bottom-and-wedge-top-680x381.png\" alt=\"Emini gap down and parabolic wedge bottom and wedge top\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-83583\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-down-and-parabolic-wedge-bottom-and-wedge-top-680x381.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-down-and-parabolic-wedge-bottom-and-wedge-top-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-down-and-parabolic-wedge-bottom-and-wedge-top-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-down-and-parabolic-wedge-bottom-and-wedge-top.png 1685w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!--  EURUSD FOREX MARKET TRADING STRATEGIES  --><\/p>\n<h2>EURUSD High 1 bull flag after buy climax rally following wedge bottom<\/h2>\n<p><!-- INSERT FOREX CHART --><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-High-1-bull-flag-after-buy-climax-rally-from-wedge-bottom.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-High-1-bull-flag-after-buy-climax-rally-from-wedge-bottom-680x381.png\" alt=\"EURUSD High 1 bull flag after buy climax rally from wedge bottom\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-83593\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-High-1-bull-flag-after-buy-climax-rally-from-wedge-bottom-680x381.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-High-1-bull-flag-after-buy-climax-rally-from-wedge-bottom-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-High-1-bull-flag-after-buy-climax-rally-from-wedge-bottom-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/EURUSD-High-1-bull-flag-after-buy-climax-rally-from-wedge-bottom.png 1690w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">On the EURUSD daily Forex chart, today so far is a bull inside day after yesterday&#8217;s big outside down day. Today will be a buy signal bar for a High 1 bull flag.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT PREMARKET FOREX ANALYSIS --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD daily chart had a big outside down day yesterday. After a 5 day rally, the bears will probably need a micro double top if they will be able to continue the bear channel. <\/p>\n<p>If today remains a bull inside day and tomorrow trades above today&#8217;s high, but then reverses down from Monday&#8217;s high, the bears will have a micro double top. They hope that it would lead to a break below the November 12 wedge bottom and continue the 2 month selloff. Their goal is a 600 pip measured move down from the 6 month trading range. They have a 40% chance of success. <\/p>\n<p>Since the 5 day rally was strong, the bulls will buy the 1st selloff, even if it is deep. For example, it might retest the October 31 low. There would then probably be a rally back up to at least this week&#8217;s high. Because the weekly chart has a wedge bull flag and the daily chart has a wedge bottom, the daily chart will probably trade sideways to up for at least a couple more weeks. In addition, the rally will probably test lower highs, like the November 7 high. <\/p>\n<p>The daily chart will probably test the October 16 major lower high within a couple of months. This is because that was the start of the channel that followed the late September spike down. Typically, a Spike and Channel bear trend breaks above the bear channel, rallies to the beginning of the channel, and evolves into a trading range.<\/p>\n<h3>Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n<p><!-- INSERT OVERNIGHT EURUSD FOREX TRADING --><br \/>\nThe EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart rallied 60 pips overnight from above yesterday&#8217;s low. Since the bulls have done enough to create a good buy signal bar, there is no incentive to rally much more today. Therefore today will probably enter a trading range for the rest of the day.<\/p>\n<p>The bears want a reversal down from the overnight wedge rally. But, the best they probably can achieve is a transition into a 40 pip trading range. Day traders have been scalping overnight and they probably will continue today.<br \/>\n<!--  SUMMARY OF TODAY'S EMINI PRICE ACTION  --><\/p>\n<h2>Summary of today&#8217;s S&amp;P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n<p><!-- EOD CHART --><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-up-and-breakout-mode-and-trend-resumption-down.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-up-and-breakout-mode-and-trend-resumption-down-680x381.png\" alt=\"Emini gap up and breakout mode and trend resumption down\" width=\"680\" height=\"381\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-83602\" title=\"\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-up-and-breakout-mode-and-trend-resumption-down-680x381.png 680w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-up-and-breakout-mode-and-trend-resumption-down-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-up-and-breakout-mode-and-trend-resumption-down-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/11\/Emini-gap-up-and-breakout-mode-and-trend-resumption-down.png 1683w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 680px) 100vw, 680px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"caption\">Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n<p><!-- INSERT EOD COMMENTS --><br \/>\nThe Emini gapped above yesterday&#8217;s bear channel. It then had a weak rally to above yesterday&#8217;s high. It spent most of the day in a tight range, then reversed down late. On the daily chart, today is a Low 1 bear flag sell signal bar for tomorrow.<\/p>\n<p>Yesterday gapped down. A gap up at any point over the next several days will create an island bottom.<\/p>\n<p>The market is closed tomorrow and I will be away on Friday. The bears want the week to close below last week&#8217;s low as a sign of strength. The bulls always want the opposite.<br \/>\n<!--  FOOTER TEXT AND LINKS  --><\/p>\n<p>See the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-analysis\/\" target=\"_blank\">weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly candlestick chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h4>Trading Room<\/h4>\n<p class=\"caption\">Traders can see the end of the day <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/profile.php?mode=profil&amp;sub=profile_prefer&amp;mod=0\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&amp;P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com <a href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/online-day-trading-room\/\" target=\"_blank\">trading room<\/a>. We offer a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.brookspriceaction.com\/portal.php?page=11\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n<h4>Charts use Pacific Standard Time<\/h4>\n<p class=\"caption\">When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the <a title=\"Emini intraday market update\" href=\"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/blog\/market-update\/\" target=\"_blank\">Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Emini adage says Thanksgiving belongs to the bears I will update again at the end of the day. Pre-Open market analysis There is an old-timer&#8217;s stock market and therefore Emini adage that says Thanksgiving belongs to the bears and Christmas belongs to the bulls. I bring it up because it is part of stock market [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-83500","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83500","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=83500"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/83500\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=83500"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=83500"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=83500"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}