{"id":88535,"date":"2019-04-03T06:20:43","date_gmt":"2019-04-03T13:20:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/brookstradingcourse.com\/?p=88535"},"modified":"2019-04-04T08:34:02","modified_gmt":"2019-04-04T15:34:02","slug":"emini-bull-flag-bull-micro-channel-march-high","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/analysis\/market-update\/emini-bull-flag-bull-micro-channel-march-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Emini bull flag and bull micro channel at March high"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Intraday market update: Wednesday April 3, 2019<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I will update again at the end of the day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Pre-Open market analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I mentioned before the open yesterday that yesterday would probably have at least 2 hours of trading range trading. That was because Monday’s rally was weak and therefore likely to transition into trading range price action. The entire day was a trading range day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday closed near its low. There are now 3 legs up on the daily chart. That is a wedge bull channel. Yesterday is now a sell signal bar for today. However, it was small, the momentum up has been good, and the all-time high is a magnet above. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday is also a pause in a bull trend. It is therefore also a High 1 bull flag coming into today. Its bear body reduces the chance of a sustained rally today and tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the 3 month bull channel is tight, the Emini might have to go sideways for a few days before there is a reversal down. But, as I have said several times over the past few weeks, the odds are that the Emini will test the March low and begin to trade sideways to down within a couple weeks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is still more likely than the rally continuing straight up to a new all-time high. But, the closer the rally gets to that high, the more likely the bulls will get a new high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bull micro channel on 60 minute chart<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Coming into yesterday, the 60 minute chart had a 12 bar bull micro channel. This is similar to what I have been saying about the weekly chart. When there is a micro channel with many bars like this, the bulls typically buy the 1st reversal down. And they did yesterday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next, the odds favor a breakout above the top of the micro channel and a brief resumption of the bull trend. That was Monday’s high, and yesterday broke a little above it. Today might rally more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, the micro channel is a sign that the bulls might be exhausted. As a result, there is usually a deeper pullback after the rally gets above the top of the micro channel for a few days. Therefore, there will probably be sellers not too far above Monday’s high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overnight Emini Globex trading <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Emini is up 18 points on the Globex chart. Today will therefore gap above yesterday’s high. When there is a big gap up, there is an increased chance of a trend day. A bull trend is slightly more likely. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, a big gap up means that the 5 minute chart will be far above its 20 bar EMA. Traders do not like to pay too much above the average price. Consequently, the first 60 – 90 minutes usually enters a trading range until the EMA gets near the market. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

At that point, the bulls will look to buy a wedge bull flag or a double bottom near the EMA. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A trading range always has both a bull and bear setup. The bears will look to sell a double top or a wedge rally.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yesterday’s setups<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Emini<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EURUSD Forex market trading strategies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"EURUSD<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The EURUSD daily Forex chart turned up overnight from above the March 7 low. This is a double bottom. There is a Spike and Channel bear trend over the past 6 days on the 240 minute chart. Traders expect a test of the start of the channel, which is the March 25 high, just above 1.13. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The daily chart has had many 2 – 3 week long legs up and down over the past 4 months. This reversal is probably the start of a couple weeks of sideways to up trading. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Brexit is an important catalyst. A surprise announcement can come anytime. It could lead to a huge move up or down. Until then, traders will continue to look for reversals every 2 – 3 weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Overnight EURUSD Forex trading<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The EURUSD 5 minute Forex chart rallied 70 pips from yesterday’s low. The rally has been in a tight bull channel. This is a sign of eager buying. When that is the case, there is usually at least a small 2nd leg up after the 1st reversal down. Consequently, day traders will look to buy 10 – 30 pip pullbacks today, and a 50% pullback over the next few days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They will wait to sell for scalps. As long as the bull channel on the 5 minute chart remains tight, it will be difficult for the bears to make money. However, today will likely begin to enter a trading range. Once it does, the bear day traders will scalp reversals down from above prior intraday highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bears hope that this rally will form a double top with Monday’s high. That would create a small bear flag on the daily chart. They then want the 2 week bear trend to resume and break strongly below the March 7 low. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two weeks of sideways to up is more likely because every breakout attempt for 4 months reversed. This one will therefore probably also reverse for at least a couple weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Emini<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Here are several reasonable stop entry setups for today. I show each buy entry with a green rectangle and each sell entry with a red rectangle. I rarely also show limit order entries and entries on the close of bars. My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

End of day summary<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The strong early selloff made a bull trend day unlikely. The rally to a new high made a big bear trend unlikely. This resulted in a trading range day. The midday selloff turned the day into a bear trend reversal day. Profit taking by the bears created a reversal up into the close. The day closed near the open and was a bear doji day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Today is now a sell signal bar for tomorrow. But, a bear doji is a weak sell signal bar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A gap down tomorrow would create a 3 day island top. However, island tops are minor reversals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The odds still favor a 2 month selloff before a new all-time high. But, if the bulls begin to get a series of bull bars closing near their highs, the probability which shift in favor of a new all-time high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See the weekly update<\/a> for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Trading Room<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up<\/a> for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room<\/a>. We offer a 2 day free trial<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Charts use Pacific Standard Time<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Standard Time (the Emini day session opens at 6:30 am PST, and closes at 1:15 pm PST). You can read background information on the intraday market reports on the Intraday Market Update<\/a> page.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Intraday market update: Wednesday April 3, 2019 I will update again at the end of the day. Pre-Open market analysis I mentioned before the open yesterday that yesterday would probably have at least 2 hours of trading range trading. That was because Monday’s rally was weak and therefore likely to transition into trading range price […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_genesis_hide_title":false,"_genesis_hide_breadcrumbs":false,"_genesis_hide_singular_image":false,"_genesis_hide_footer_widgets":false,"_genesis_custom_body_class":"shadow","_genesis_custom_post_class":"","_genesis_layout":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[153],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-88535","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-market-update","7":"entry","8":"has-post-thumbnail","9":"override"},"featured_image_src":null,"author_info":{"display_name":"Al","author_link":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/author\/albrooks\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88535","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88535"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88535\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88535"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88535"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.brookstradingcourse.com\/pt-br\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88535"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}