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My weekly Dax-Trading journal
Ok, I have decided onto the following conditions that have to be met, to allow myself to trade live again:
- Complete watching the BTC at least once.
- Starting with a Demo Account, funded with 1000€ virtual cash, trading the standard GER30, 1€ per point.
- Capital has reached a minimum of 1500€
I'm still thinking of a way to penalize falling under the margin limit. Of course, in the end I'll have to reset the account to 1000€ if I want to practice more. 😐
To the future Kristof reading this: Don't even think of bending the rules! Prove that you have learned and you will be allowed to trade live again!
“Farewell, Haladdin, and remember: you have everything you need to win. Repeat it as an incantation and don’t be afraid of anything. Now, take this… and turn away.”...
I will simply post the results in Euros, since it is a Demo account, so no need to hide anything.
After beeing up 200 points so far, I came to the realization, that I should not force myself to swing trade. Apparently my natural style is scalping and I have no problem with collecting the crumbs instead of the entire loaf of bread. If tight stops and small but many profits fit me, then I see no reason why I should not do what I'm best at. Appareantly I have some (limited) talent in spotting, when the market is about to turn, so I might just build on what I already know. Of course, Al is right when he says that most beginners have the problem of re-entering when scalping, but that's a problem I'm willing to work on.
With the live account, disaster struck whenever I tried to swingtrade and not so much when I just scalped as usual.
with this post, I want to give an update about my trading progress. In general, I have completed a lot more of the course and I feel how finally the puzzle pieces are coming together, forming a picture.
In the last months, I did not trade too much, as I wanted to progress in the course (see previous posts). The last weeks, I resumed trading tiny position sizes and it is going much better. Firstly, I open up a chart and in 90% of the times, I immediately see, what the market is doing and have an idea right away, if I can take a trade now, wait for a little time or just walk away from that market for a few hours. It's not really that I make that much better trades, but I finally manage to avoid all the bad trades I would normally have taken. Even so that most days I walked away with enough money to pay my lunch 😆 . Anyways, I did not post the individual results here, as I jumped back and forth between markets and timeframes and I took just very few trades per day. That's why I selected a trade from today just as an example, how different parts of the course did come together to allow for a good profit on this trade:
You can see the one hour chart of the German30 with some of my drawings. In general, I was looking to go short the previous days, but I was waiting for a plausible entry. As you can see, the market topped out and then went lower, forming a wedge bottom. The reversal up looked weak so I looked for a signal to go short, considering it as LL, maybe MTR. So I entered on the last bar that is depicted (that big bear trend bar).
As you can see in the second chart, the market tested the high of the trend bar and then resumed downwards. Hesitating at the prior wedge low, it eventually broke lower. At this point, I was looking at possible targets. Then, I remembered that Al stressed the importance of higher timeframe S&R on the weekly chart when trading on friday. So I drew in some weekly levels and managed to exit exactly at the LOD on the 13'670 handle. As you might imagine, this is incredible progress for me! You can also see how different parts of the course material come together to give the entry, the SL levels and the exit. Only the information about the weekly support level transformed this trade into a trade with about 41% ROIC instead of a trade with 10%, combined with the information about exhaustive moves (biggest bear bar late in bear trend, MM target, second leg etc).
I also noticed that very often different concepts from the course lead to the same results, i.e. it does not matter if I consider a certain pattern a MM, second leg, magnet from support below etc.
So anyways, just wanted to share this with everyone. I'll attach the broker statements for credibility. Please note that I traded the "mini-Dax", so one contract in the mini-Dax equals one tenth of the normal Dax contract. 🙂
What a perfect textbook-like setup!
Today, I was again trading the hourly chart of the Ger30. As you can see from the picture, there was a very strong two-legged bull moved the day before. As it was fairly climactic without pullback, I was looking for a setup to short. At the time, I was only looking for a scalp, as the first reversal is usually minor and the bull trend was exceptionally strong. The first candle after the open was a very strong bear trend bar. This got me thinking, if this could be a possible swing-trade. I waited for another bar and sold the close of the bull bar right after the big trend bar, as I was looking for at least another leg down, since the bear breakout was that strong. After some consolidation, the market broke down for a perfect measured move, where I took profits.
It's really incredible, how perfect the setup and the move looks like!
Finally a breakthrough!
This has been a very good trading week for me - I managed to achieve a ROIC of around 106% trading the GER30. Some major facts, that I feel like contributed to this result:
- I traded the 1 hour chart. Less overtrading, more time to do the analysis.
- I was doing something else in the meantime. So I only looked at the chart every 30 minutes or so. This helped with patiently waiting for setups and also riding the winners.
- I progressed further in the course material. Especially the section about Support, Resistance, and Basic Patterns was the point where a lot of things clicked into place. Whenever I look at a chart, I very clearly see what the market is doing. So far so, that I'd say that in 70% of the time I'm able to anticipate moves in the market a few hours before they happen. This is enough time to prepare for the trade. I'm much calmer, as I anticipate the move and just have to wait for the signal bar.
- I only trade based on "closed" candlesticks, i.e. I only base trading decisions upon completed candlesticks. In former times, I did some trades based on candlesticks that where still in formation. Most of the times, that was a bad idea (false breakouts). I deem this to be one of the biggest improvements.
All in all, I have to say that I'm very happy that I'm making progress. However, I'm also afraid that this result is only a statistical outlier and next week will be bad again. But I was able to do this once. Why not again and again?
Here are all the trades and the brokers statement for credibility. As always, please note that I'm trading the Mini-Dax (1 Mini-Dax point = 10 Dax points):
Cumulative P/L: 106% ROIC / 736 Dax points