Trading Update: Thursday February 1, 2024
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini gapped down and formed a strong bear breakout bar, testing near the moving average and the January 12th breakout point high.
- The bears are hopeful that today will lead to another strong bear trend day and get a close below the moving average.
- More likely, today will have disappointing follow-through selling and lead to a trading range day or a bull bar, closing above the open of the day.
- Yesterday is enough of a surprise to expect at least a small 2nd leg down, but the pullback might be deeper than what the bears want.
- The market is still Always In Long, and the odds favor a minor reversal down. This means that the bears who sell the close.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 14 points in the overnight Globex session.
- Today has only a 25% chance of becoming a strong bear trend day.
- There is a 75% chance of a trading range lasting two hours, beginning before the end of the second hour.
- There is a 50% chance of selling on the open, followed by 2 hours of sideways trading.
- As always, traders should expect a trading range open and consider not trading for the first 6-12 bars unless they can make quick decisions and trade with limit orders.
- Most traders should wait for a swing trade that often begins before the end of the second hour. It is common for the market to form a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom before the swing trade begins.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD reversed down yesterday after the FOMC bar and formed an outside down breakout.
- The bulls are attempting to get a reversal up, and a bull bar is closing on its high.
- The bulls continue to make money buying below bars. This increases the odds of a rally sometime soon.
- The bulls need to get a breakout above the moving average, with closes above it. Without getting a breakout above the moving average, traders will assume sideways to down is more likely.
- At the moment, sideways is more likely than the market going a lot lower.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
End Of Day Review will be presented in the Trading Room today. See below for details on how to sign up.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
