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Bulls Want a Crude Oil Breakout

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Market Overview: Crude Oil Futures

The bulls want a Crude Oil breakout to retest the top of the triangle from a wedge bull flag (Oct 29, Nov 18, and Dec 6). The bears want a retest of the October/September lows and the bottom of the triangle from a wedge bear flag (Nov 7, Nov 22, and Dec 16). They want the top of the tight trading range or the 20-week EMA to act as resistance.

Crude oil futures

The Weekly crude oil chart

Crude Oil Weekly - TTR, Bulls Want Breakout Above, Bulls Want a Crude Oil Breakout
  • This week’s candlestick on the weekly Crude Oil chart was a bear bar closing below the middle of its range and the 20-week EMA.
  • Last week, we said that traders would see if the bulls could create a breakout above the wedge bull flag (Oct 29, Nov 18, and Dec 13) or if the market would continue to chop sideways within the 9-week tight trading range.
  • So far, the market continues to trade within the 9-week tight trading range with no breakout from either direction yet.
  • The bears want a retest of the October/September lows and the bottom of the triangle from a wedge bear flag (Nov 7, Nov 22, and Dec 16).
  • They want the top of the tight trading range or the 20-week EMA to act as resistance.
  • If the market trades higher, they want a lower high and the top of the triangle to act as resistance.
  • The bulls see the current move as a three-legged pullback – a wedge bull flag (Oct 29, Nov 18, and Dec 6) and want a breakout to retest the top of the triangle.
  • They see this week simply as a pullback and want a strong breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the tight trading range.
  • For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a breakout above the wedge bull flag (Oct 29, Nov 18, and Dec 6) and test the top of the triangle.
  • Or will the market continue to chop sideways and test the bottom of the tight trading range instead?
  • The market has been trading sideways with overlapping candlesticks, poor follow-through and frequent reversals which means the market is in a tight trading range.
  • The market is trading around the middle of the trading range which is an area of balance and a magnet.
  • The lower third of the large trading range can be the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • The tight trading range also indicates that the market is in breakout mode. Traders will wait for a strong breakout from either direction, with sustained follow-through buying or selling and trade in the direction of the breakout.
  • Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying/selling.

The Daily crude oil chart

Crude Oil Daily - No FT Selling, Bulls Want BO Above TTR
  • The market traded sideways to down testing the 20-day EMA this week. Friday traded lower but reversed into a bull doji closing above the 20-day EMA.
  • Last week, we said that traders would see if the bulls could create follow-through buying, breaking above the November 7 high or if the market would continue to chop sideways within the tight trading range instead.
  • So far, the market continues to chop sideways within the tight trading range.
  • The bulls see the current move forming a wedge bull flag (Oct 19, Nov 18, and Dec 6).
  • They want a breakout above the tight trading range to retest the top of the triangle and the October 8 high.
  • They see this week as a pullback forming a small double bottom bull flag (Dec 17 and Dec 20).
  • They want a strong breakout followed by a measured move based on the height of the tight trading range.
  • The bears want a retest of the October and September lows followed by a breakout below the bottom of the triangle.
  • They want the market to reverse lower from a larger Low 4 sell setup.
  • They want the top of the tight trading range and the bear trend line to act as resistance.
  • If the market trades higher, they want a lower high and the top of the triangle to act as resistance.
  • So far, the candlesticks in the last 9 weeks have a lot of overlapping ranges which indicates tight trading range price action.
  • Poor follow-through and reversals are hallmarks of a trading range.
  • For now, traders will see if the bulls can create a retest and a breakout above the tight trading range.
  • Or will the market continue to chop sideways and test the bottom of the tight trading range instead?
  • The lower third of the large trading range can be the buy zone of trading range traders.
  • The market is trading around the middle of the trading range which is an area of balance and a magnet.
  • Traders will BLSH (Buy Low, Sell High) until there is a breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying/selling.
  • The tight trading range also indicates that the market is in breakout mode. Traders will wait for a strong breakout from either direction with sustained follow-through buying or selling and trade in the direction of the breakout.

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