Trading Update: Thursday April 10, 2025
Emini end of day video review
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S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Yesterday, a strong bull reversal bar was formed following the tariff announcement. While the market saw the 90-day tariff pause as positive, the reality is that the market was down 20%, and the tariff was the catalyst for getting a bounce.
- Yesterday’s rally is enough of a surprise that the odds favor a 2nd leg up. However, because yesterday rallied 8%, which is extreme, the market may have to get a pullback before the bulls can get a 2nd leg up.
- The Bulls are hopeful that they will be able to get some measured move up based on yesterday’s rally.
- The bears did a good job selling in March; however, it became too climactic. Because of the strong reversal up, traders will expect some second leg before the bears will likely be interested in selling. This means traders will probably look to buy any reversal attempt after yesterday’s strong bull breakout.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini gapped down on the open and formed a doji bar with bar 1.
- Today is probably not going to form a bear trend from the open and will likely form a trading range day.
- Because the gap down is following yesterday’s bull rally, the bull will probably test into the gap sometime soon on the open.
- Most traders should wait 6-12 bars before placing a trade since opening reversals are common.
- The bears are trying to get a bear trend from the open. However, there are probably buyers below, scaling in lower.
- If the bulls can form a credible bottom, they will try to get a test back up to yesterday’s close.
- Because yesterday was so climactic, the odds are against today becoming a 2nd strong bull bar. This increases the risk that there will be a lot of trading range price action.
- There is a 75% chance of a trading range lasting two hours, beginning before the end of the second hour.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD formed a third leg up after the April 3rd bull breakout.
- The bears are hopeful that today’s price action is forming a wedge top and that the market will experience a two-legged pullback. While this is possible, the bears’ problem is that the channel up is tight, which increases the odds of more sideways to up trading.
- Today is a surprise, which means that the bears will need to do something strong if they are to convince the bulls to exit. At a minimum, the bears need a strong bear reversal bar to convince traders to sell, assuming today closes near its high.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
Hello Brad, that looks like a terrible buy signal—buying the close of that bull bar carries huge risk, especially considering it might have been a buy climax in a broad bear channel. Don’t you think?
Thanks.
Yesterday is a Major Bull Surprise on the daily chart. This increases the odds of a 2nd leg up. It was also climactic given the bar is 6-8%. This increased the risk of a pullback.
Notice what happened at yesterday’s midpoint traders bought hoping for the 2nd leg up.
Bears want to trap the bulls but realistically, not many bears are going to sell below yesterday’s low. This increases the odds of buyers even if the market goes below yesterday’s bull breakout bar.