Trading Update: Monday June 30, 2025
S&P Emini market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini has formed a 5-bar bull microchannel, and it’s getting near the December 2024 high. The rally is strong enough that the odds favor buyers below, and a second leg up is likely.
- The risk is big for the bulls, and the bears are hoping that today will form a bear bar closing on its low, increasing the risk of a small second leg down. Next, the Bears want a strong entry bar and to sell off back to the June 6th breakout point high.
- While the Bears are hoping that the current rally is exhaustion, the reality is it’s a strong enough breakout that the odds favor buyers below and a test closer to the December high.
- The bears, at a minimum, need to make the market start going sideways. This would cause bulls to begin selling out of their long positions, betting on a deeper pullback.
- Overall, the market is Always In Long and the odds are that the bulls will get a second leg up after any pullback. The Bears need to gather more signs of strength if they’re going to achieve a successful reversal, and they have not done so yet.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- The Emini gapped up on the open of the US session and formed a two-legged sell-off down to bar 15 at the moving average.
- The Bulls are hopeful that the sell-off down to bar 15 will lead to trend resumption up and a break above the open of the day.
- One of the problems that the bulls have is the strong bear so far during the open period.
- The market is also spending a lot of time at last Friday’s high, and that increases the risk that the market is in a trading range.
- The Bears are hopeful that the two-legged pullback down the bar 15 is a trap, and the market will get a downside breakout below it in the measure move down of the opening range.
- The sell-off to bar 15 is probably a bear leg in what will become a trading range, which means we’ll probably test back up to the bar 13 high at a minimum.
- The Bears need to break below the moving average if they’re going to get down to last Friday’s close; otherwise, there will probably be more buyers at this current price level.
- If the market spends too much time at the moving average without getting far away from it, that will increase the risk of the moving average failing to act as support and the bears succeeding.
Friday’s Emini setups
Brad created the SP500 Emini charts – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from Friday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro Emini.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini price action
Brad created the SP500 Emini charts – Al travelling.
Emini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
EURUSD Forex market analysis
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD is continuing to form a bull microchannel with five consecutive bull bars in a row.
- However, the past two days have had tails below the bars, and last Friday failed to close above last Thursday’s high, which increases the chances that the market is going to pull back soon.
- While the rally is good for the Bulls, it’s climactic, and it increases the odds that we’ll test back to the June 13th high over the next several bars.
- The Bears want a strong reversal down. Still, the reality is that they need more selling pressure if the reversal is going to be successful. The channel up from the May low is tight, and therefore, bears probably need to make the market go sideways at a minimum before they can have a chance at any major reversal.
- Because the risk is getting big for the bulls, it’s reasonable for the bulls to get out below a bear bar or an average scalp size below any bar
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
On Friday can you specify how many bars below the ema is a sign of weakness from the bulls?
Here we got the first time price is below the ema after so many bars. We should be looking to see, if bulls are going to buy the first time below the average price.
At which bar you concluded that the bars were too many and bulls were not finding support?
It is a good question. Remember that it isn’t about prediction but probability. Bars 46 & 47 below the ema with lower tails -> bulls trying. 48 inside doji. . 3 bear bars. Bulls need to show up soon because of time. 49 1 tick bull fake out closing on low. Micro bear channel. Ok to close trade 1 tick below that bar. 4 consecutive bear bars. That was enough time and endless pullbacks can begin anytime. 50 though. Last ditch effort for bulls but after the series of bear bars, 51 did exactly what 49 did and 1 tick below the bull bar is the most that should have been lost (except for slippage which most likely occurred here). A series of 3-5 small bars can “change” the always in direction. Good trades to you!
Usual suspect Eric strikes again!
Thank you for such a detailed answer. I’ve got a followed up question for you.
What if you choose to exit below the L1 bear signal bar 43 after seeing 44-45. There even smaller in size than 41-42. Isn’t it better to protect open profits since i personally believe on the close of 42 this leg down was a good candidate for a possible endless PB. Since the absence of the bulls there was really shown and was a bit surprising. If this was really a bull trend there should be more ”excitement” to be looking to add more risk and initiate longs on the PBs. Personally I think in this case here i would have given the bulls a ”chance” if from 41-46 the bars had more prominent tails or the bull bars were more than the bear bars, closing on or near their highs. Better if the move went more sideways, and had 3-4 more bars in it meaning 41-49/50. We had 3 consecutive bear bars, 2 closing on their lows and a 5 bar MC. Traders i think were curious to see what the FT would look like in the next 10 bars. But from 41-46 the failed bear BO attempts were really bad from the bulls and i think it’s fair to assume that we will get some give up bars fairly soon and therefore an exit below 43 is reasonable.
Sorry for my yapping, but i like your answers. I want to see what you think.
Wish you the best!
Worthy discussion but because the variables are many, a single answer rarely suffices. However, the trick becomes “when?”. In truth, 38-40 is the potential trigger for bear spike and its size may often help to determine, but not always. It is the first aspect to be aware of though. Next, too soon vs too late. When bear bars close on the low, and have good size, especially in series – this triggers things. Ok to exit where you indicated and the question becomes quantifiable routine simply for consistency. It still may turn up otherwise and individuals would have to be ok with that, or be able to get back in. Therefore review your logic and the above written summary and decide how you can best consistently operate. The consistency is the key.
Good trades to you!