Trading Update: Thursday November 6, 2025
S&P E-mini market analysis
E-mini daily chart
- The E-mini broke below the moving average today and is currently forming a downside breakout.
- The bears are hopeful that today’s breakout is strong enough on the daily chart to lead to a 2nd leg down and a test of the October 10th close.
- The bears really need consecutive closes below the moving average on the daily chart. This would increase the odds of sellers above and a 2nd leg down to the October 10th close.
- The bulls are hopeful that today is forming a wedge bottom with the (October 31st and the November 4th low). Next, the bulls are looking for a strong reversal up tomorrow.
- Even if the bulls get a reversal up tomorrow, there are probably sellers near the October high.
- The bears making money selling above the October 10th breakout point high further increases the odds that the daily chart has converted into a trading range. This means that the market will probably test down to previous higher lows over the next several weeks.
E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Today formed a small gap down and sold off, creating a bear trend from the open. The bears formed a sudden surprise bear breakout with bars 5-7, which increased the odds of sellers above the bar 8 high and a 2nd leg down.
- As of bar 30, the bears have done a good job with the selloff; however, it is becoming climactic. This increases the odds that the 5-minute chart will evolve into a trading range and start moving sideways soon.
- The bears are hopeful that they will be able to get a measured move down based on 13-15. While this is possible, the increase in buying pressure from bars 18-33 lowers the probability for the bears.
- Overall, the 5-minute chart is likely going to evolve into a trading range over the next several bars. Less likely that the bear channel is going to continue.
Yesterday’s E-mini setups
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.
My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.
It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.
If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.
Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action
Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.
E-mini end of day video review
Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Trading Room
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.
Hi Richard,
Is there a good reasoning against selling 33?
It is not marked as a sell, yet it is a Breakout Bar, Closed Low, Close Below 32, Reversal from the Failed Channel Breakout and possible Trend Continuation.
It didn’t go far but that was confirmed only later.
There is. There was a marked “wedge” and only one recovery upward (usually “wedges” are followed by two). There was also a “trading-range final flag” leading to a measured-move downward then an attempt at a reversal up and there were many bullish candles at that price. There was also good reasoning to sell, since there was going to be a flat range for a number of bars after a strong selloff and that was a strong bearish candle near the high of a range before any decisive bottom had formed. Ultimately there were more good reasons to sell below that candle than to buy, which is why more contracts were sold at that price than were bought.
Yes, I missed marking that trade which was quite good context ref trendline and other reasons as noted by Duncan. I do have to limit info and entries to avoid cluttering chart but should have caught that one.
Hey, I don’t blame you :o) I learn. I was curious if there is something particular that I didn’t realise about the setup.
Thank you Richard for getting back to me and clarifying.
Hi,
I wonder if it was ok to buy the close of B11 for at least a 2nd leg up. And when should I exit long? (Should I exit long and entering short below B13?)
Thanks in advance!
The market was in Bear Trend with the prior Breakout.
In a Bear Trend, the gaps tend to remain open and the trend resumes from the Trend Line. So did by 12 and 13.
It is difficult to make money by buying in BRTD and usually a losing strategy. It is better to expect the trend continues until later when the market confirms the bottom.
Thank you so much!
Also a tight channel, with no TL break up until B31. I was aware of prior’s day ETH low, and wanted to catch a rev.
I went long on B31, thinking it was a second entry long. I thought the move that happened on B36 would happen on B31. I exited on 33. In hindsight, it was too soon, right? No TL break, plus the first touch of EMA after so many bars. Probably a minor reversal. Am I missing something? I would love to know. Looking forward to a response.
Thanks in advance!
There were “trend-bars” closing near their lows which was an indication that there was decently certainly going to be a double-bottom or a flat range for a number of candles, even after an attempt to make the market “always-in-long”. The bar before bar 36 was a “trend-bar” closing near its low so it was good to bet that sellers were going to be interested in selling more, at a higher price. After the reversal down to the close of bar 35 from bar 41, the market was more certainly “always-in-long”. because sellers saw the strength of the leg up to bar 41 and were not interested in selling at the low of a range.