Market Overview: EURUSD Forex
The weekly EURUSD bulls want a bull breakout above the trading range and a measured move up move based on its height. Bears want the move to stall near the top of the trading range, forming a lower high major trend reversal.
EURUSD Forex market
The Weekly EURUSD chart
- This week’s candlestick was a bull bar closing near the middle of its range, with a long upper tail.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could form a follow-through bull bar above the 20-week EMA or reverse back below it.
- The bulls produced a follow-through bull bar testing near the trading range high, but the prominent upper tail suggests profit-taking.
- Bulls created a retest of the trading range high following the two-bar reversal (March 3 and March 13) and the large double bottom bull flag (August 1 and March 13).
- Bulls want a strong breakout above the trading range, followed by a measured move based on its height, projecting to the 2018 high.
- If the market trades lower, bulls want the 20-week EMA to act as support, followed by a second leg sideways to up.
- Bulls see the 45-week trading range as a large bull flag—a 25% pullback of the rally from January 2025—and want trend resumption.
- They need consecutive bull bars closing near their highs to increase the odds of a successful breakout.
- Bears see the current move as a retest of the prior high (January 27).
- They want the move to stall near the top of the trading range, forming a lower high major trend reversal.
- If the market breaks above the trading range high, bears want a brief move with poor follow-through, leading to a failed breakout.
- Bears need consecutive bear bars closing near their lows to show control.
- The market is retesting the trading range high.
- Traders will watch whether bulls can generate follow-through buying to break above the trading range high and the bear trend line (not shown, drawn across the February 2018 and January 2021 highs).
- Or will the market stall, pull back to the 20-week EMA, and retest the range low in the weeks ahead instead?
- For now, the market may still be in a sideways-to-up phase.
- Price remains within the 45-week range. Until there is a clear breakout with strong follow-through, traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH)—buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the range.
The Daily EURUSD chart
- EURUSD traded sideways to up this week. Friday traded higher but reversed, closing as an outside bear bar with a long upper tail, forming an oo (outside-outside) pattern.
- Last week, we said traders would watch whether bulls could create follow-through buying to retest the trading range high or if the market would pull back to the trading range low; if so, they would assess the strength of the pullback.
- The market gapped down on Monday, but buyers appeared below the 5-bar bull micro channel.
- Bears see the current move as a buy vacuum bull leg retesting the prior high.
- Bears want the February 23 high to act as resistance, forming a large double top bear flag (February 23 and April 17) and a lower high major trend reversal.
- Bears want a second leg sideways to down to retest the March 13 low.
- At a minimum, they want a two-legged pullback to the 20-day EMA.
- Bears need consecutive strong bear bars to show control.
- Bulls got a reversal from a higher low major trend reversal (March 30) and a double bottom pullback (March 19 and March 30).
- Bulls want a retest of the trading range high, followed by a breakout and trend resumption.
- They see the trading range as a 25% pullback of the rally from January 2025 low, forming a large double bottom bull flag (August 1 and March 13).
- The move up from the April 6 low is a tight bull channel, indicating persistent buying.
- Bulls expect at least a small sideways-to-up leg to retest the current leg high (April 17) after a pullback.
- If the market trades lower, bulls want the 20-day EMA to act as support.
- Bulls need a strong breakout with sustained follow-through to increase the odds of trend resumption.
- The market formed a tight bull channel testing near the top of the trading range, indicating strong buying.
- Traders are watching whether bulls can maintain the tight channel to retest the trading range high. If the market trades lower, they will watch whether the 20-day EMA acts as support.
- Or will the market form strong bear bars breaking far below the 20-day EMA?
- Because of the tight bull channel, odds slightly favor at least a small second leg sideways to up after a pullback.
- EURUSD remains in a trading range. Until there is a strong breakout with sustained follow-through, traders may continue Buy Low, Sell High (BLSH)—buying near the lower third and selling near the upper third of the trading range.
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