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I am not really sure if im grasping the always in concept correctly. In the picture above is how the market roughly looked the other day. It was trending down in a broad bear channel. I don't remember which day was exactly unfortunately.
We got a wedge bottom and that rallied up in a 4-5 bar Microchannel. Number 2(Bull Microchannel) closed above 1(LH). But the bar that closed above 1 was a bull doji and not a strong FT bar. Would you consider this an always in flip at least for a 2nd leg up?
Bulls needed 1 more bar and they got it but it was minimum FT and not a strong trend bar. The next bar was a bear bar, starting the PB. Bulls tried to get a 2nd leg up but it was disappointing, lacked conviction, the bull bars were small and led to a tight channel and a wedge top.
Would you say that it was just failed BO above a prior major LH or a disappointing Always in flip with a weak 2nd leg up that failed to test magnets above?
Should we only look to buy after the BO test after a trendline break? What if Leg 1 has 4-5 bull bars in a Microchannel with good closes? Do we need more of a PB or is it a shallow PB like here enough to trade a 2nd leg and test the magnets above?
Hope i didn't tire you reading this,
Thank you in advance.
Oldest individual in the forum!
Ok, there are a few things which need to be discussed, and a short answer isn't going to give you the experience you need. This is a good thing though (but will only be appreciated in retrospect perhaps):
1. Rewatch all of 13 again. YES, IT IS THAT IMPORTANT!!!! They are probably the most important lectures in all of the 120 video series. . . . Yes and I am not kidding! In his books, Al references several "key" topics which are essential. This is probably #1 (yeah I know everyone thinks it's breakouts but remember, "until there is a breakout, there is no breakout").
a. Al is very specific on classifying how and when that state changes. It isn't accidental, and it is absolutely flat out mind boggling that he determined this well w/o computer assistance. . .But this is Al we're talking about.
b. For the last month, review all of Al's daily markups and note the arrows. Not just the 1st one, but when you begin to see series of them. This helps make finding the always in state easier.
c. Always In is essential smart swing trading when there is a bias. However, it essentially means the probability of going up or down is > 50%.
After reviewing the above, you may have a new appreciation of what Al has done, and it is essentially this: there is pattern evolution, and there is always-in state changes (consider this local bias). While the two can be in the same direction, this isn't always the case. Reviewing those selection charts will allow for you to define rules better. Patterns are everywhere however the probabilities can be a little muddy. Always In is fairly well defined and produces a good edge with appropriate stop and position sizing rules.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Yeah and at this age now dementia is kicking in, so i need help from guys like you.😂
On a serious note am i that far off from the always in concept? I remember vividly Al mentioning that the opposite side needing one more close above/below a major LH/HL.
I wish i had the chart in front of me so i could be more specific. I think i was justified for having that always in flip thought. At least momentarily for a 2nd leg up not for a MTR, but that 2nd leg up started to stall and the push up looked more like a failure the more bars that were added(10+).
Don't give me the answer if you don't want to. But on the text above what was the red flag that made you say that i have to rewatch these videos again?
I'll definitely do as you said as i seem to be missing something that hasn't really clicked yet. Thanks again for taking the time and responding to a two millennium year old fella like me.
Oldest rookie in the game signing out.😂
Always In is not line pattern related. While breakout points can influence them, like needing "1 more bar", Always In references directional strength which patterns, especially line ones, do not show.
Patterns go through evolutions, and hundreds or thousands of books have been written on them. People read them and go nowhere. If they were "the difference", I would have understood things in the years 1996-2000 when I devoured them. Always In is a very specific and important concept.
I'm not being "obtuse" to be difficult, although it may initially appear that way. There are some concepts which absolutely "change the game", and I mean completely. Like the Michael Jordan/ Scottie Pippen Bulls 3x3, 6 total championship runs. Yes - that big of a concept. When I came back across Series 13 after a few years, I could have slapped myself really hard for quickly racing to complete "all of the videos to get to the finish line". . .
So, rather than a simple, 1 case solution, and the market has hundreds of pattern variations (Al outlines 100+), instead I'm attempting to provide specific instructions to discover what I consider to be Al's Holy Grail (and it shouldn't take too long with the instructions).
Hopefully a little more helpful and good trades to you!
(*note: Al provides the high level view of these markings for free on the blog posts after each day (graphic available on the next day). Brad does the writeup. A key, key, key resource to understanding the Video course & the 4 books because it is the visual solution of everything he has created. And, as a kicker -> for stop order entries, where everyone is supposed to start)
Example:
https://www.brookstradingcourse.com/analysis/emini-limited-upside-without-deeper-pullback/
Ok i see what you mean now. I've recently noticed that sometimes i tend to persist and gravitate towards patterns over context. This is a habit I've picked up along the way before studying BPA and i subconsciously did it again without realizing. Quite annoying, but getting better at it to not let it influence my decisions, as i am more aware of it now.
Thanks again for taking the Time.
Much love<3
