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In the MTR section Al discusses the probability of getting a MTR swing as being 40%. Also, in his breakout rule he states that 80% of breakouts will fail. If a MTR is occurring during a trading range, and the MTR is the breakout of this trading range, how are the conflicting probabilities explained?
Jacob, regarding failed breakouts - have a look (attached), twelve breakouts failed, 13-th succeeded (though it may have looked liked it did too failed, temporarily almost because of the gap) ... could be wrong
Thanks Mr. Carpet,
I think that makes sense. Then again, it's hard to say when the context is hinting strongly at MTR vs trading range (at least for me) because trading ranges look like constant breakouts at every turn. 80% we'll stay in the current trend, 80% we'll stay in the current TR. So what you're saying is, given the 80% rule, if there is enough confluence to suspect a turning of the tide, then 40% chance of MTR?
Mike,
Excellent point - every bar is a breakout of some kind. Thanks!
Thanks Mr. Carpet, great explanation!
