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On the last graph of video 30C AL says there's a 60% chance of it going down 1:1 RR after the 3 consecutive bear bars, since it's a BO, but it looks like it's near support at the bottom of a trading range, and it seems to be late in a trend (not 20 bars), but it is accelerating, so it seems like 2nd leg trap behaviour. Am I wrong on this?
Yes - you are wrong on this (sorry). Please listen to the entire video very closely.
Probability is the most important variable, but it isn't shown on the charts and must be learned through experience. A lot of "patterns" are deceptive. They are difficult because they are not associated with probability. However, there are specific patterns for reading probability, and one of the most important characteristics is "Always In".
Al's statement at 33:30. Please listen to this very closely as it may provide additional insight. The most important aspects is understanding bias, targets, and stop loss placement. Not patterns. Not knowing is offset through measurement, and an understanding of initial and actual risk and reward. Remember, 80% of the time it doesn't matter if you are long or short, to make money [Al has it at 90% here at 18:30. If you review this video and those comments many times, Al's approach to the market can become clearer. It is brilliant!]. As frustrating as the last sentence is, it is true, and Al's statement at 33:30 helps to highlight.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
