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I’m using Forex, so the scalp size is around 10 pips.
the big picture is this:
Attachment : B83EFBFC-9B05-4453-8AA2-815CB82010FD.jpeg
We can see an expanding TR in the middle of a TR, so the BE we’re trying to get the bounce.
Attachment : FF5C15BC-8CB0-436E-9C15-E97A18197B7D.jpeg
The problem is that at the 60EMA the Bulls get a strong BO… so, did the Be get a LO to scaling in were the Bu where going to take a scalp and exit at 50% BE between first and second entry? In fact after there is a BIG Bu BO after the BE of the Bears.
Attachment : 31BEDAB9-8A8C-4A7F-B6A9-EE22193CF85D.jpeg
the 2nd one is about Bu trapped after a reversal bar. They bought the close of the last Bu bar and get trapped with a reversal bar (not a problema since there was a MC), but some of them get scared and exited after buying the 2nd entry
long. Others scaled in after 10 pips profit scalp from the bears AND the support of the TR (67%).
There is a difference between the two situations. In the first case, there is bullish activity and a great bear bar which did not get follow through. On the 6th bull bar with great close, well, where are the bears? Right - Exit if premise changes.
The second situation is different. The bears are not going to sell the largest bar at the bottom, in general, as a scalp. If they do, recognize where the stop is. Why will they not sell for a scalp? Because it is the 10th bar in a bear series and potentially a second leg trap. Especially with the bear bar being almost 2x the average size bar.
However, noone is "perfect". So if one did take that last sell as a scalp, on the 8th bar, which is a really good bull bar, it is reasonable to exit early. The premise will have changed. Or, simply let the stop be hit.
There isn't "being perfect" in this game. Just reasonably good.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Hy,
heres a drawing what i mean with the 25% test After the second leg from the TR up.
Attachment : IMG_0122.jpeg
Please dont get me wrong but eventually you miss understand the Concept of MM, in my opinion it is a Tool to follow the Trend.
To MM Al says under Trends S.330:
-However if the Spike is large, one MM Target is from the Open or Low of the First Bar from the Spike to the Close or high of the last Bar of the Spike (in a Bull).
-it is important to Look for the because when a reversal finale does set up, it will usually be at one of These Résistance Areas
- in General, it is far better to Look at MM Targets as areas to take Profits than as Locations to take reversal trades. Traders should only take reversal trades if the setup is strong.
If you Place a Limit Order with the only reason the MM you can Not say if the possible Reversal setup is strong because it havent evolved. Your Edge might be higher if you set up a stop Sell Order After the Spike down and Hope for a MM down. The probability is at last 60% for a second leg in form of a Channel down.
On the second its much more Information. In case of your marked Trade i would think that you want to hold you Trade for about 10 Bars or so.. but your Target is Bretts wide for that time. If you Head hold your Trade for much more Bars your Target had be reached this time. You can scalp the 15 min Chart aswell. scalp Are usually 1-3 Bars, Swings a lot more, Are you looking for Swing trades?
thats how i See the Situation, and there Wasnt a Signal for going Long to your tp Target, but thats only my opinion:
Attachment : IMG_0123.jpeg
at your entry Price the fist Target would be the high of the Spike, the second a MM from the Spike, or a Leg1 - Leg2 MM because of the Deep pullback After the Spike.
So the Spike before your entry wasnt that strong it failed at the prior swing high, the Pb was Big, for me it isnt looking that strong to move all the way up to your TP Target.
FOr example Look at the Spike up After Bar 85; this was a strong Spike up and this one reached your Target, but it was way stronger than the Spike before yout entry (your Signal is gues).
Im looking more for scalp trades and i havent Studied the reversal Book yet, i only have read it at the Moment so i cant say for sure if that was a possible reversal Situation and explain it.
One question about your ideas and trades is that something what comes from your mind or is it a Concept from your own, Like your own System?
Best regards
Hey, in Short i would say no because the Context is a TTR. But like above it depends on your stop or your goals or your Target. Are you looking for a Swing or a scalp, this matters because it is important to Decide whats a good SB for you.
in terms of Context for example:
Lets say you thought the Bull Trend at the Open formed a DB Bull Flag, the orange line. Your Target would be the high of the Day, the neckline. Your two SB were possible SB‘S but this two Bars were in a TTR. A triangle. Al‘S bar were the safer SB because it was a breakout pullback Long setup, a breakout pullback Long from the triangle.
The market formed After the H1, lower highs and higher lows thats a singn of two sided trading, expected the BO to fail because of TR beahaviour. Live at the market i think there isnt a real Edge at your SB‘S for a Swing up. If you want to scalp it may be different and your Target could be the Upper trendline from the First triangle at the 1st SB, wich i didnt draw.
the 2nd SB in terms of a scalp Are Bad in my opinion, because it was high in the TTR. I think i would wait or fade the BO, but to be honest i would wait.
Attachment : IMG_0110.jpeg
Hi Blagoy, I brought this up here as well:
Unfortunately, did not really receive a satisfactory answer there either. I really have no clue why Al phrases it the way he tends to phrase it, in some places saying if probability is 40% then go for 2R to be profitable (as if they are independent variables)... but then in other places saying that traders have to consider risk, reward, and probability where he talks about can't have high probability and good R:R (thus treating them as dependent variables).
What I would think, if it is 40% chance of 2R, then it is likely > 50% chance of 1R as well, in most scenarios. While it may be 40% chance of a major reversal, that doesn't mean less than 50% chance of minor reversal.
Perhaps there are special scenarios where a certain distance move would trigger an even bigger move, where instead of the default of 50% of 1R and 33% of 2R for breakeven... you have a situation where you have like 45% of 1R (losing) and 38% for 2R (slightly winning). Perhaps a spot where you could have a consecutive climax but if it gets a second countertrend bar it's likely not? Not sure. In any case, I don't think Al is referring to special scenarios like that, or else he would have stated that, instead of a blanket statement in multiple videos that if 40% probability, go for 2R.
In the end, I think what is most important, is if you find good scalp setups, you treat them as a scalp, and if you find good swing setups, you treat them as swings (unless too disappointed that have to scalp out).
Hey!
I think you should stick to your plan. When you enter a trade and you have already solved the trade equation with the variables, you should follow it. One of the biggest problems is that often when entering a swing trade you end up managing like a scalp and also when you are on a scalp you end up managing like a swing. If I remember correctly Al gives examples of this in book 2.
I will just explain the example of a trade that would be to manage as a swing but ends up managing as a scalp, because as you said yourself you are a beginner, and beginners should avoid scalps.
Al's example for swing trading goes something like this: when entering a swing trade, many traders end up making it too early because they lost in the last trades and are satisfied with making a small profit, but when exiting early (let's assume in a target 1x1) he is solving the trader's equation with other variables, and these variables would make the trader's equation negative. They lie to themselves, but swing traders need these big profits to make up for their losses.
To solve this problem Al suggests going into a trade and then going to Walmart - in the sense of getting out and back in a couple of hours.
With every tick the odds change and of course there will be occasions where even in a swing trade you can exit early your trade, but you cannot lie to yourself and always exit before.
Scheduling trades at the end of the day is great for studying, but remember that doing this during the trading session is much more difficult so don't get upset.
Another suggestion: Keep watching the course videos constantly. There's so much more I can take in and seeing them just once isn't enough (at least for me).
Att,
My first comment is to check your risk tolerance. One of the difficult things with scalping in a trading range is that traders typically need to trade the "I don't care size," which Al refers to, much smaller than what they think. I ask the above because you said, "I was not in the right mindset after losing the first scalp" to me, this implies you are risking more than the "I don't care size."
You should trade the same size as you would on any other trade. This causes traders trading one contract to start scaling into traders with 2-3 contracts; however, they were never mentally prepared to lose what they risk. So first, I would check position size and ensure you are genuinely comfortable.
The next part is a bit more challenging to explain, and I like to think of it as experience is sometimes the best teacher. Your 2nd trade is a typical situation where the market goes just below the day's low by a couple of points only to turn back up and go right back to your first entry.
The other difficulty with scalping/wide stops in a trading range is that it can be easy to exit at the wrong place. Al calls this a "skunk stop." For example, your second trade you got out of was right at the low of the day when buyers would likely come back in.
Think about it like this pretend you are only looking to trade with trend breakouts for a moment. So let's assume you were looking to the short right at your 2nd entry (2nd blue box). Would you be willing to sell on a stop one tick below the day's low? My point is sometimes it helps to think about what the opposite traders are doing.
Generally, one should not buy high or sell low in a trading range. This means do not look to sell short or out of longs at the bottom of the content. If anything, traders should buy more at the low of the day. This is difficult to ask most traders to do because it can be so subjective, and the risk can become much more significant than one thinks, which is why traders need to trade small. Al often says that when he is scalping using wide stops, he will often place his visit a little wider just in case.
Remember, trading ranges always go further than what traders think they will, so traders have to use a much wider stop than they think they should.
I hope this helps.
Brad
In the Course Al talks a lot about how most people should not scalp and how it takes a rare type of person to be able to scalp profitably and enjoy it. I'm here asking for advice because I believe I may be that type of person but am worried I am being naïve.
I am one of the best in the world at a popular RTS video game like Starcraft 2. In this game a player must take 50-150 actions per minute, make decisions on the fly, and manage multiple things quickly, and accurately. I enjoy doing this; and to me, scalping appears to be similar in a sense that one must act quickly, decisively, intelligently, and accurately.
I am also able to not let my emotions get the best of me when things aren't going my way. I can take a hit if I understand the bigger picture.
I know that interpreting price action, structuring mathematically rational trades, and managing them well takes a lot of practice and experience, but I do believe if I get to that point where I can do it, the fast paced nature of scalping may be a good, enjoyable opportunity for me.
Anyone here scalp as their main form of trading? Am I being naïve to think that I could be that type of person who enjoys scalping? Thank you for reading all this and thanks to everyone here on this great forum. Al is an inspiration
I was trying (unsuccessful) to make a point about people trying to trade like Al WHEN EVEN AL DOESN'T HAVE A WAY TO TRADE. He has a way of organizing the market in his head.
Exactly! That's my point too.
Again totally agree. So if he doesn't trade the way he says, what is he teaching? How are we supposed to trade? (Rhetorical question)
He's is also legally bounded and may not give specifics of his trades.
No that's patently false. This is the ONE that really bothers me. NO he's NOT. That is a COMPLETE LIE! Right from Al's mouth. Maybe he actually believes that. I dunno. I doubt it. I'll leave it at that.
Not if your only calling out your trades. Especially after the fact. Why not after the fact?
Again... EXACTLY!!! I agree %1000!!!
??? Well that's a contradiction. I'm never married to my position but I have a plan and stick to it?
But again I agree with the first part. The great Mike Reed used to say every trade starts as a scalp.
Not sure what your referring to? Gladly give you my thoughts if I could see.
Yeup it does make me happy and profitable. I like to think of my trading now as defensive. (Years in the making and still and always working on it) I'll try to catch moves but will get out many times if I have to.
I think that's reversed. Your psychology will change once you require the requisite skill to match the task.
Yes. With kind regards.
(P.S. I really like the discussions in here. We all can discuss and learn and grow.)
... typical measurements might be different today.
For example, he talks about a typical scalp being a minimum of 1 point. He talks about seeing 20 2 point scalps and 40 1 point scalps on a chart. He talks about how beginners can try to catch one good 4 point swing per day and how that objective is very realistic.
I'm especially interested in the last statement, about a good realistic objective for 1 good swing per day, on average. Would he still say 4 points today in 2025? Or would he say 8 points, 10 points?
He also talks about many of the people he knows ...
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