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I’m a beginner, Could you explain why bar 55 is a bull breakout bar? 🤯
Here’s what happened during the time: I shorted at bar 50, but bar 55 was such a strong bull bar that I thought I was wrong and bailed out. Then bar 56 and 57 showed up and I was like… okay, I totally got tricked 😂
My short idea was basically:
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The 15–28 rally had great buying pressure, but I felt the second leg up was already done around 43–49.
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Bar 49 and Bar 28 looked like a LH double top, and we had five consecutive bear bars from bars 50 to 54, so I was expecting more downside
Maybe I haven’t learned that part yet, but I genuinely don’t get why bar 55 is such a big bull bar. I’d really appreciate any explanation! ❤️
Hi Kaia,
There're logical reasons why bar 55 occurred and why traders sold it instead of the breakout leading to a bull trend.
1. Big down & up at the Open (both tight channels)… which would create confusion and probably a trading range.
2. The market is in a trading range by early mid-day.
3. Lots of price overlap but bulls form a relatively tight channel starting at bar 43. Strong enough for a 2nd leg up.
4. Trading Ranges are full of 2nd leg traps. After SHORT under bar 50, a disappointing selloff occurred. Many bears took quick profits, and the rest are breaking even anticipating a 2nd leg up. Bulls are also aware and start buying. Price vacuums to former highs (top of trading range) causing a bull breakout bar.
5. Bar 55 is probably a failed breakout of a mid-day trading range. Once bar 56 formed, traders agreed it was a 2nd leg trap failed breakout of a trading range.
a. Big bars inside trading ranges attract profit takers, not trend traders.
b. It's also a wedge top.
Hi Trevor,
Thanks so much for the clear and detailed explanation, it really makes sense! 👍 👍 Your breakdown fully explains why bar 55 happened, and it also reminded me how common 2nd-leg traps are in trading ranges. I’ve learned that in a TR, I need to focus much more on the follow-through after a breakout, otherwise it can easily turn into a trap.
Thanks again, and I wish you all the best in both life and trading. ❤️ ❤️ ❤️
Well hopefully this will help. The thing about trading is that there is only a probabilistic outcome of absolutely anthing happening. So whicle your short had merit, without profit taking and management of stops, "that big bar" is going to come along. . . It isn't a question of if but when.
The 5 bear bars after the short are mostly weak and dojis and tested the 46 low, a bull breakout of the tight trading range before it. So when 55 came along, it is a bull breakout bar on a mostly trading range day. While it may fail, there will be some that will not.
So, it isn't about predicting, but taking reasonable trades and management. As trends do not occur forever, with 5 bear bars, even though they are weak, the odds of a bull bar happening are increasing . . . especially because the bear bars are weak.
So why did 55 happen? Perhaps bulls working to "get out even" It may have been additional orders from bar 46 that were not filled. It really doesn't matter. After taking a reasonable trade, which the short was, reading the strength of the bars and management of the position will enhance the outcomes.
Not about prediction and "being correct/right" but reasonable entries and managment. The expectations matter less because they are uncontrollable.
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
Hi Eric, thank you so much. You gave me a really important insight: in trading there is no absolute “perfect right” — only probabilities and an edge.
I think one of the biggest mistakes beginners make is that we try too hard to find certainty in a market that is inherently uncertain. We want a fixed template that can guide every step and tell us exactly what’s right and what’s wrong, but that’s not realistic. And on top of that, there are always unexpected events that can invalidate technical levels.
When I reviewed the trade afterwards, I did think that the bars after my short were mostly dojis with poor follow-through, which could mean the bulls were building pressure for a reversal. But you pointed out two things I had missed:
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Bar 54 reached an important area:the low of bar 46, which was the breakout point from the tight trading range. The market often comes back to test that area.
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The bigger context mattered: the day was inside a larger trading range, where sharp reversals can happen frequently.
Your advice really hit home: focus on context, read the strength (or weakness) of follow-through in real time, and keep improving my ability to identify key S/R, and most importantly, manage the position and stops so I can survive the unexpected. I will definitely apply all of that in my future trading.
I was genuinely touched by how patient, sincere, and insightful your reply was. You’re the first person here who helped me, and it made me feel the warmth of the community. For beginners like me who are learning alone — and also dealing with a language barrier — this kind of support is an amazing positive feedback.
Wishing you the best in both trading and life. Thank you again from Shanghai, China. ❤️ ❤️ ❤️
Bar 55 is so big beacuse of exhaustion, trapped traders and bears who always want to sell higher. Anything can happen and although you try to expect everything, the unexpected thing always happens. Thats why the place of your SL is so important. A lot of SO traders saw the same thing as you and took the short under bar 50. Other SO traders who saw the same thing but did not get in on bar 50 for some reason, took the short under bar 56. All because of the same reasons as you. But what makes them different? They put there stop above HOD and let the trade play out.
Hi Jord, thank you so much! ❤️ You answered the exact next question I had — where my stop loss should go.
That day my target was the low of bar 43, but honestly I wasn’t even thinking about stop placement. Since I still don’t know how to properly price options off the ES move, I was using market orders instead of limit orders (total beginner here haha 🤣), and I ended up reacting emotionally to the big bar instead of sticking to a plan.
After your comment, I mapped it out: stop above the HOD (bar 1 high), target at the low of bar 43 — and the trade still would’ve been profitable. Also bar 55 topped one tick below bar 28, so even a stop one tick above bar 28 likely would’ve survived.
I’ll definitely apply your advice going forward: define stop and target before entry, place limit orders, and if the R:R makes sense, let the trade play out.
Really appreciate your guidance — super valuable for beginners like me. Wishing you the best in life and trading! ❤️ ❤️ ❤️
Hi Kaia,
I think you made a small mistake with your analysis. You mentioned bar 55 high was below the high of bar 28. While that is correct, bar 56 would have taken out your stop above 28. Just wanted to make sure you don't miss that.


