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I was wondering what the probabilities are of taking the shorts marked next to the red arrow. Are these setups still 40% chance of getting 2X risk?
I might be 40%, but realistically, it is probably less. The key point is that the channel up is really tight, and most shorts will lead to losses. A trader might take that short you highlighted with the arrow since it is a possible double top. However, they would likely be disappointed by the doji follow-through bar and scalp out or get out above the bull bar 2 bars later. That isn't easy to do in real-time, though, so most traders are better off waiting.
