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Hey all,
I've been using the daily blog as a guide to assess my own entries, drilling myself on these charts to match Al's entries as closely as possible. Through this process, I’ve noticed that about 60-70% of Al's entries rely on wedges. It seems that, in many cases, finding a solid wedge setup with a reasonable signal bar (SB) is enough to set up a good trade.
However, the remaining 30% is challenging—sometimes it feels almost random. To give Al the benefit of the doubt, I’d say that this portion likely comes from his ability to synthesize countless variables from his trading course, each weighted precisely based on his 30 years of experience.
It reminds me of the Pareto principle: 80% of the results come from 20% of the effort, and the remaining 20% of the results take 80% of the effort.
The challenge with sticking to the “easy” wedge approach is that it works on most days, but on those tricky, range-bound, wicky days, I end up taking a hit. Often, I only realize it’s one of those days after the damage is done.
On the other hand, going for 100% accuracy by integrating niche factors (like “midpoint of the week,” as Al once mentioned in his blog) feels like a mental marathon, and it doesn’t always lead to significantly better outcomes than the wedge + SB approach. When I try this “hard mode,” I go through all his concepts for every bar. In ambiguous situations, I might have several reasons to take a trade and just as many reasons to avoid it. After painstakingly weighing each option, I still don’t see a substantial improvement over the simpler wedge approach. Still, I suppose setting high standards is worthwhile. With the wedge strategy alone, I know I’m unlikely to reach 100% alignment, but using all the variables, there’s at least a chance.
Another thing that comes to mind is Ali’s advice, which many of you might know: he claims that mastering second legs is all you need to trade successfully and that too many extra factors only create distractions. He mentions this in one of his free YouTube videos.
So, here I am, pouring time into cracking this code, yet at a crossroads: go all-in with the hard mode or accept the occasional rough days and aim for consistent profitability over the long term.
Would love to hear your thoughts! Thanks in advance.
Hi J,
it depends with which of your explained ways you would be more satisfied as AL and ALI are also suggesting that trading has to be fun. Additionally both are suggesting to accept that there is no 100% so letting go of the perfection should be the way to go.
The 2nd leg approach is all you should need as the numbers are showing it on Alis research which was available somewhere on his YT CH. The Q is if you are able to implement all of his suggestions and adapt those to your trading style and if that will fit for you. That is the main Q which you should answer for yourself, if the system, style fits your personality or not to be motivated enough to go through all the learning faces along the learning curve which is exponential - parabolic with time too the point of success.
Enjoy the process!
I've been starting to get a sense when the day isn't going to be an 'easy' day, meaning it is likely not going to play out in my expected pattern/outcomes (for example a wedge top leading to 2 legs down and a chance to get out if it doesn't work). Unfortunately I still end up beating my head against the wall taking these trades when I know today isn't the best day for it. But I see something that I say is not quite great, but maybe still ok, and I take it and inevitably lose.
Things like whiplash type behavior, big overlapping trend bars, or where it is going through oscillations of quiet, no movement, followed by big bursts (like vacuums), and then quiet no movement again. idk, I don't have it nailed down yet but the intuition is starting to pick up some subtleties there.
Another thing you can do, is just limit your daily loss. So if it happens to be a day that keeps failing to play out like you expect it, then just quit for the day. Maybe after 3 cc losses just say enough is enough, instead of waiting for max daily loss limit.
I've been starting to get a sense when the day isn't going to be an 'easy' day, meaning it is likely not going to play out in my expected pattern/outcomes (for example a wedge top leading to 2 legs down and a chance to get out if it doesn't work). Unfortunately I still end up beating my head against the wall taking these trades when I know today isn't the best day for it. But I see something that I say is not quite great, but maybe still ok, and I take it and inevitably lose.
Things like whiplash type behavior, big overlapping trend bars, or where it is going through oscillations of quiet, no movement, followed by big bursts (like vacuums), and then quiet no movement again. idk, I don't have it nailed down yet but the intuition is starting to pick up some subtleties there.
Another thing you can do, is just limit your daily loss. So if it happens to be a day that keeps failing to play out like you expect it, then just quit for the day. Maybe after 3 cc losses just say enough is enough, instead of waiting for max daily loss limit.
Thanks for your response. Great suggestions. There are days when you barely get any stop-loss entries that trap you. Like when you’re short in a bear trend, a solid bull bar appears after a tight wedge down, and you think, “Maybe I should reverse or exit here,” but the market doesn’t even give you the choice because the stop order isn’t triggered.
And then there are the days you described: big bars, long wicks, constant strong signal bars that get triggered—a real nightmare. A daily max loss, as you suggested, is a good idea, but I keep thinking that swing could come any moment and recover all my losses… Regardless, I’ll keep your advice in mind!
Hi J,
it depends with which of your explained ways you would be more satisfied as AL and ALI are also suggesting that trading has to be fun. Additionally both are suggesting to accept that there is no 100% so letting go of the perfection should be the way to go.
The 2nd leg approach is all you should need as the numbers are showing it on Alis research which was available somewhere on his YT CH. The Q is if you are able to implement all of his suggestions and adapt those to your trading style and if that will fit for you. That is the main Q which you should answer for yourself, if the system, style fits your personality or not to be motivated enough to go through all the learning faces along the learning curve which is exponential - parabolic with time too the point of success.
Enjoy the process!
Thanks!
Good point about it needing to fit with your personality—you have to be happy with what you're doing.
Just to clarify, when I say 100%, I don’t mean never losing a trade. Al also has losses with his entries in the blog. I mean aiming for a 100% match with Al's entries.
As for my issue with second legs, it's that they’re not always symmetrical; they can just end up as a wick. In a trading range, they’re almost impossible to distinguish or link together. On top of that, between leg 1 and leg 2, there can be a lot of bars due to higher timeframes, which means having to sit through deep pullbacks or wait for a long time. In conclusion, the idea of a 90% success rate (as Ali states) with second legs sounds appealing, but given these factors, I find it challenging to turn it into a tradable system.
I’d appreciate any tips, even if it’s a bit off-topic from my original post.
.
J,
as everyone sees the market from an own perspective and has an own arsenal of resources of emotions and so on you should skip to aim for the 100% even to copy ALs entries, as you are you and AL is AL and everybody else is an individual so everybody will handle the same situation in an own manner so just accepting this fact will help you to find your own way to trade successfully. So it's not only limited on the results as more of the fact to accept the imperfection as a part of trading like you explained it in the 2nd leg setup, as nobody should assume a 100% symmetry on it as well.
I understand what you mean. I’ve always approached it from the perspective of profitability—winning is what makes me happy and suits my personality, and whatever system makes this possible is the best fit for me. But maybe I need to take a step back and consider what kind of system would make me truly enjoy the process; otherwise, I might not even reach the goal of profitability in the first place.