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Risk, reward, and probability form the function. However, there is initial and actual risk which become important aspects of how efficient one is able to read the charts. As you pointed out, the second entry will have a higher probability, but not just because it is a second entry. It is alwo because the bulls were able to first move the market 2 consecutive bull bars in a row against an 8 bar bear micro channel. So the first attempt showed some initial activity. However, you'll note the pullback from that first attempt. That pullback shows the actual risk and the initial risk were fairly close (thus not an efficient "launch" on the entry bar). However, the second entry was much more efficient. Efficiency and probability often tie together.
Therefore, you will notice that the 2nd entries often have higher efficiency, and therefore higher probability. Note, in many cases the second entry will not have a more favorable entry because the market doesn't provide many "free bees".
Hopefully helpful and good trades to you!
