Market Overview: Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Cup and Without Handle
- A large cup has formed on the weekly timeframe
- A handle did not develop
- Without a handle, setups offer poor risk-to-reward
- Risk is too far, down to the low of the Cup’s right side
Why a Bull Flag is Essential
- Traders need structure to manage risk
- A bull flag may allow an entry with a lower risk
- Current distance to stop is +30% from current prices
- This makes it difficult to justify new long positions
- No structure = professionals do not engage
- Handle formation would enable 2:1 or 3:1 trades
- It improves trade planning and position sizing
What Happens Without a Handle
- If price breaks out cleanly, many traders will not enter
- Lack of pullback leaves no opportunity for good entries
- Breakouts without structure are often not followed
- Traders prefer to wait for a triangle or pullback to join
- Weak hands may chase and get trapped near the highs

Probable Scenarios Going Forward
- Two main upside targets exist and are measured move based
Target 1: $120,000
- Based on measured move from 2021 to 2022 bear market
- Higher probability of being reached this year
Target 2: $140,000+
- Based on cup without handle measured move
- Probability of reaching this in 2025: 30–40%
What Traders Need to Engage
- A pullback, BOM (breakout mode pattern) that defines risk

Bearish Outlook
- There are not many bears on this timeframe, they are long-term buyers that might sell. Either to secure profits, or hedge.
Where Bears Might Aim
- Downside targets between $65,000 and $75,000
Why Bears Likely Won’t Engage
Realistic Scenario
- Sideways trading range instead of a crash
- That is how most bull cycles end — not with a bang, but a range

The reversal
- $75,000: Retest of 2024’s breakout zone
- IBIT gap filled
- 365-day EMA touched
- Breakout above 30-day EMA
- Breakout above $90,000 double bottom neckline
- $100,000 broken — tested multiple times
What Happened After
- Instead of a second leg up, price formed a tight bull channel
- This indicates a potential exhaustion of buyers
Current Buying Activity
- Likely retail-driven
- Breakout chasers entering late
- These traders typically lack conviction and their stops are normally triggered
Professional Behavior
- Not chasing
- Waiting for consolidation or defined pullback
Market Structure Right Now
- No pullback to EMA
- Price went directly to previous all-time high
- No clean structure for new entries
- This makes it unattractive for large-size positions

Expectations for the Week Ahead
- Price likely to oscillate between $94,000 and $114,000
- Similar volatility to the previous week is expected
- Traders watching how price reacts near recent highs
Key Scenarios
- 30-day EMA and/or major higher low test:
  - Either by going sideways in a consolidation
  - Or a quick move down, stopping out weak bulls

Trading Plan and Strategy
- Do not buy without a prior consolidation
- Do not short without a prior consolidation
- Focus on trader behavior, not price predictions
- Overall, it is time to be patient

You can access all the weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.

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Josep Capo says:

May 30, 2025 at 12:43 pm

Thanks for stopping by, yanfeng! Wishing you great success on your trading journey, keep learning and growing. If you ever have questions or want to share your thoughts, feel free to join the discussion!

Great!! Thank you so much for the analysis.

Josep Capo says:

May 30, 2025 at 12:43 pm

You’re very welcome, Siddhant! I’m really glad you found the analysis helpful. Thanks for the support, feel free to share your thoughts or questions anytime!