Market Overview: Bitcoin

Bitcoin

Cup and Without Handle
- A large cup has formed on the weekly timeframe
- A handle did not develop
- Without a handle, setups offer poor risk-to-reward
- Risk is too far, down to the low of the Cup’s right side
Why a Bull Flag is Essential
- Traders need structure to manage risk
- A bull flag may allow an entry with a lower risk
- Current distance to stop is +30% from current prices
- This makes it difficult to justify new long positions
- No structure = professionals do not engage
- Handle formation would enable 2:1 or 3:1 trades
- It improves trade planning and position sizing
What Happens Without a Handle
- If price breaks out cleanly, many traders will not enter
- Lack of pullback leaves no opportunity for good entries
- Breakouts without structure are often not followed
- Traders prefer to wait for a triangle or pullback to join
- Weak hands may chase and get trapped near the highs

Probable Scenarios Going Forward
- Two main upside targets exist and are measured move based
Target 1: $120,000
- Based on measured move from 2021 to 2022 bear market
- Higher probability of being reached this year
Target 2: $140,000+
- Based on cup without handle measured move
- Probability of reaching this in 2025: 30–40%
What Traders Need to Engage
- A pullback, BOM (breakout mode pattern) that defines risk

Bearish Outlook
- There are not many bears on this timeframe, they are long-term buyers that might sell. Either to secure profits, or hedge.
Where Bears Might Aim
- Downside targets between $65,000 and $75,000
Why Bears Likely Won’t Engage
Realistic Scenario
- Sideways trading range instead of a crash
- That is how most bull cycles end — not with a bang, but a range

The reversal
- $75,000: Retest of 2024’s breakout zone
- IBIT gap filled
- 365-day EMA touched
- Breakout above 30-day EMA
- Breakout above $90,000 double bottom neckline
- $100,000 broken — tested multiple times
What Happened After
- Instead of a second leg up, price formed a tight bull channel
- This indicates a potential exhaustion of buyers
Current Buying Activity
- Likely retail-driven
- Breakout chasers entering late
- These traders typically lack conviction and their stops are normally triggered
Professional Behavior
- Not chasing
- Waiting for consolidation or defined pullback
Market Structure Right Now
- No pullback to EMA
- Price went directly to previous all-time high
- No clean structure for new entries
- This makes it unattractive for large-size positions

Expectations for the Week Ahead
- Price likely to oscillate between $94,000 and $114,000
- Similar volatility to the previous week is expected
- Traders watching how price reacts near recent highs
Key Scenarios
- 30-day EMA and/or major higher low test:
  - Either by going sideways in a consolidation
  - Or a quick move down, stopping out weak bulls

Trading Plan and Strategy
- Do not buy without a prior consolidation
- Do not short without a prior consolidation
- Focus on trader behavior, not price predictions
- Overall, it is time to be patient

You can access all the weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.