Bitcoin: 4th Bull Leg Hits Resistances on Monthly

Market Video Report: Bitcoin

Duration 7 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo’s original script.

Summary

Bitcoin is having trading range behavior in the monthly, weekly and daily timeframes. It is time be patient and locate the levels where the next trade opportunity may arise from.

Transcript

Hey everyone, welcome to this week’s video analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the monthly, weekly and daily charts. My name is Josep Capo, Price Action Trader and author for the Brooks Trading Course. Let’s dive into the charts and unpack what’s happening, starting with the monthly timeframe and then zooming into the weekly and daily charts for finer details.

The monthly chart remains in a solid bull trend. That said, as I’ve been signaling for a while, this bull trend is now slamming into critical resistances. First, there’s a measured move up calculated directly from the 2022 drawdown. Second—and zoom out with me here, look at the screenshot in the bottom right of your screen—the price is pressing right against the top of a wedge formation.  

Let’s count the legs properly from the 2023 bull reversal: one bull leg, two bull legs, three bull legs, and this current push is the fourth leg. Hitting both the wedge top and the measured move target during a fourth bull leg significantly increases the odds that the market cycle changes its behavior soon. After a strong bull channel like we’ve had, the most probable transition is into a trading range. Personally, I already believe we’re inside that trading range. But even if a strong bull breakout erupts from here, I would interpret it as simply another bull leg within what will ultimately become a broader trading range. Trading ranges close gaps—and that means even on a breakout, the price will very likely come back to test the current higher high.  

If the market has indeed already hit the top of this potential trading range, then the low of the range should form around this area. This zone trapped bears who sold the close or sold below that strong bear bar, and there’s also a clear gap between this higher high and this higher low—creating extremely strong support. The moving average you’re seeing is the 365-day moving average. In a trading range scenario, I expect the market to gravitate toward this level: if price surges far above it, pullbacks to the average become likely; if it drops, tests higher into it make sense.  

Looking ahead to the coming months: I think we’re more likely to end the year above current prices—bears simply aren’t strong enough yet to take control. However, this is not a strong bet. Most traders, including myself, want to see what actually happens as price nears the $100,000 level before committing hard—that could flip my view quickly. Right now, we have a tight trading range with weak bulls, weak bears, and relatively limited downside risk because of strong support.

Shifting to the weekly chart: This week triggered a high 1 setup. But zoom in on the context—it’s inside a tight trading range, which makes it an unreliable buy signal bar. In fact, it may have trapped bulls into their long positions. The price did trade below the prior week’s low, but that wasn’t a great sell signal bar either, so we weren’t expecting much downside follow-through this week.  

We’re sitting right around the lower boundary of a trading range, and there are some powerful magnets below that we might visit. These include a confluence of the 365-day moving average, the $100,000 big round number, and the major higher low. Those levels are absolutely critical—traders everywhere will be watching intently, and the price action around them will determine the next swing direction. At current prices, it’s extremely difficult to make money; the market is too balanced, too neutral—best to avoid trading this kind of environment altogether. If the supports I mentioned break quickly, then price has a chance to drop toward the green area below, which is the zone where we signaled trapped bulls on the monthly chart.  

That said, since we’re at the lower boundary of this tight trading range, I believe we’ll close above current prices in the next few weeks.

Finally, the daily chart. In the prior report, we were positioned right here, and I highlighted that the strongest magnet on the entire chart was above at the $115,000 price level. Last Sunday, the price reached exactly that level. Not only did it arrive, but it broke above a triangle and triggereda theoretical bull signal. I explicitly said I would prefer to sell a failed bull breakout rather than buy into it. Monday delivered no good follow-through for the bulls—in fact, it formed a sell signal bar. The market was creating a double top with the October 13 high. Following a 5-bull micro channel, some sideways to up trading was expected, which it did. But Tuesday delivered a bear reversal, and that was a much better sell signal because the loss of momentum became far more evident. The bears’ goal now is a swing down toward the $105,000 level.  

Wednesday brought a strong bear breakout. Thursday pushed to new lows and even closed below Wednesday’s low, which created this micro gap open. Friday formed an inside bar—not a really strong bull bar by any means. Question: Are there sellers lurking above the bull inside bar or above the bear micro gap?  

Look where we are again: smack in the middle of a triangle. We’re also at a lower boundary of the price range visible on this timeframe. If this area favors anyone even slightly, it’s the bulls. But I wouldn’t be buying here either. When we trade inside ranges, we should only contemplate positions when price is near the boundaries—looking for reversals or breakouts at the extremes. We should never bet on direction when we’re in the middle of a trading range or inside a breakout mode pattern like this.  

As we’ve seen across all three timeframes in this analysis, everything remains very unclear. When things are this confused, traders have one powerful weapon: patience. We need more information—we need to wait for the price to move to other areas or form a credible breakout before taking action. This is just classic trading range behavior.   

Would I place a buy limit order below Thursday’s low or below October’s low? There are strong magnets below, as discussed on the weekly timeframe, but as we covered on the monthly, we’re at risk of falling far below those magnets. So again—caution is key. In the following weeks, we will see much clearer action.  

If I absolutely have to bet on one direction, I believe the price will revisit the $115,000 level soon and trade even higher. But I won’t be surprised at all if the price falls down to the $100,000 level—so I do not want to deliver a strong opinion on bias yet.

Before we conclude, I’d like to invite you to explore our newest initiative: daily end-of-day Bitcoin reports. We are publishing three end-of-day reports detailing intraday price movements each week. You can find them in the Brooks Trading Course Blog. If you’re looking for more Bitcoin-related price action material and you have more suggestions, please take your time to comment—your support is vital. Please give your feedback either in the comments section of this YouTube video or the comments section of the blogs themselves.

Market analysis reports archive

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