Market Video Report: Bitcoin
Duration 8:51 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo’s original script.
Summary
Bitcoin is poised for a $10,000 move. The weekly chart remains in breakout mode, while the daily chart already shows a completed breakout, with participants attempting to drive the move. It will either succeed or fail, but in high probability it will deliver the mentioned $10,000 move and create clear trading opportunities.
Transcript
Hi everyone, welcome back to this week’s Bitcoin price action analysis. My name is Josep Capo, and I’m a Price Action Trader and an author for the Brooks Trading Course website. Thank you for joining us as we take a look at Bitcoin on both the weekly and daily charts.
Before we dive into this week’s Bitcoin chart analysis, we want to extend my sincere thanks to each of you for your continued support. It truly means a great deal that you return week after week to follow our price action reports.
I encourage you to visit our website, where you will find a wealth of free, high-quality content from Al Brooks himself, along with insightful reports written by other experienced traders. While we all share the same core methodology rooted in the Brooks Trading Course, each of us brings a unique perspective. This diversity is incredibly valuable—it allows you to deepen your understanding of how to apply these principles effectively and work toward becoming a consistently profitable trader.
Now, let’s turn our attention to the weekly chart.
In last week’s report, we carefully examined both the monthly and weekly charts of Bitcoin to establish a broader, longer-term perspective. If you haven’t already done so, I strongly recommend reviewing that previous analysis, as it provides important context for how the market might unfold throughout 2026.
On the weekly timeframe, my current assessment is that Bitcoin remains firmly within a major trading range that began in December 2024. What we witnessed recently as a bear breakout is, in my view, merely one bear leg within this larger trading range rather than the initiation of a new sustained bear trend.
The green support zone visible on the chart represents a particularly strong level—something that becomes even more evident when viewed on the monthly chart. This is another reason why revisiting last week’s report will prove helpful. In trading ranges, price action has a natural tendency to gravitate toward the mean or central area or apex of the range. At present, I identify that mean as either the psychologically significant $100,000 round number or the 365-day moving average.
That said, strong bear breakouts frequently lead to at least one additional leg lower. Instead of immediately failing and reversing back toward the mean or higher levels, price consolidated by contracting below the breakout point. This behavior suggests a certain acceptance of these lower prices, which is why I anticipated that the bear flag pattern would resolve downward, ultimately testing the lower boundary of the trading range around the critical $75,000 area.
Many price action traders are currently identifying what appears to be a Low 2 setup on the chart. For clarity, a Low 2 is essentially a double top pattern, though some traders might also refer to the subsequent structure as a Low 3. You will see Low 1, followed by Low 2, and then Low 3. The setup itself is far less important than understanding the underlying market forces at play.
Unfortunately for the bears, each successive low—particularly the Low 3—occurs at a progressively better meaning higher and “cheaper” price for sellers compared to the previous ones. This progression indicates that bulls have successfully resisted the downside pressure. In other words, the fact that bears are forced to sell at higher prices each time demonstrates underlying bullish strength.
While there is a scenario in which I would favor bear trades—and I will explain that in the daily chart section—I must emphasize that I do not consider this current Low 3 setup to be a particularly strong or high-probability opportunity for bears.
From the bulls’ perspective on the weekly chart, there is currently no compelling reason to initiate long positions. They have managed to absorb the recent bearish pressure without collapsing, yet they have not yet produced a series of consecutive strong bull bars that would signal clear control. However, the daily chart reveals a more promising picture for bulls, which we will discuss shortly.
Overall, the weekly chart remains in what we call breakout mode. The daily chart shows that this breakout mode pattern has now positioned the market for a potential breakout in one direction or the other. This illustrates one of the great strengths of multi-timeframe analysis: by understanding the higher timeframe context thoroughly, you can anticipate possible moves on the lower timeframe with greater confidence, but lower timeframes can anticipate when higher timeframes are about to start a swing. The key principle remains that you must always respect the higher timeframe when trading the lower one.
As for what will happen first—a test of the $100,000 level or a test of the $75,000 level—I do not pretend to know. Professional traders rarely concern themselves with predicting which comes first. Instead, they focus on how to react, structuring high-quality trades, protecting their capital, and consistently exploiting their edge over time.
Now, let’s move to the daily chart, which I find particularly interesting at this juncture.
For more than one month, Bitcoin traded in a sideways range. Then, last week, we saw a decisive and powerful bull breakout from that consolidation. Following the breakout, the price action formed what is commonly referred to as a Cup without Handle pattern. Starting from Tuesday this week, we have entered a pullback phase. Should this pullback remain relatively shallow and test this year’s highs without venturing much lower, the classic Cup and Handle pattern will become clearly visible.
It is worth emphasizing that the pullback should not become excessively deep. There are trapped long positions from Monday’s close, and if bears manage to drive prices lower or keep somehow bearish pressure, those trapped bulls may become disappointed and exit their positions precisely when price returns to the top of the range. Such selling pressure would be detrimental to bullish expectations.
The breakout itself was noteworthy: five consecutive high-quality bull signal bars that decisively broke above a tight trading range. In my view, traders who entered long positions on the close of Sunday the 4th or Monday the 5th made a sound decision based on the price action at that time.
The bulls’ primary expectation is to achieve a measured move equal to the size of the “cup” portion of the pattern. The potential handle provides an opportunity to tighten risk significantly, thereby improving the risk-reward ratio even if the probability of success is not overwhelmingly high. Professional traders place far greater emphasis on the overall equation of probability, risk, and reward—along with disciplined money management—than on chasing only high-probability setups. High-probability trades typically come with poor risk-reward ratios, whereas lower-probability setups often offer excellent risk-reward. The only way to find a genuine edge is by mastering the broader context, which brings us back to the importance of the higher timeframe analysis we discussed earlier.
Regarding the bears: should this bullish pattern fail, I believe it would trigger a meaningful test lower toward the $75,000 level. There are already sufficient bulls from the recent bull breakout that, if price reverses lower, their protective actions—such as purchasing puts in the options market or liquidating long positions—would generate additional bearish pressure and facilitate a swing down.
In a typical trading range, we expect price to oscillate back and forth around the central area or apex. However, when a range has persisted for an extended period and a breakout occurs, a failed breakout tends to overshoot the apex on the opposite side. Therefore, if this bull breakout ultimately fails, the subsequent test would likely reach beyond the November low, potentially targeting the measured move downside of a failed Cup and Handle pattern toward $75,000.
At this moment, I see no compelling reason to sell. The market always remains long. However, should the market structure flip decisively to always in short, I believe it would present an excellent opportunity for bears—and I would personally look to participate on the short side.
Similarly, I would be eager to participate on the long side if we see a new high of a good-looking Cup and Handle pattern.
Please remember that this analysis is for educational purposes only and is not a trading recommendation.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
