Bitcoin reaches $120,000 and monthly major target

Market Overview: Bitcoin

• Bitcoin reached major bull targets this week
• Price retraced from the target, signaling bulls took profits or hedged risk
• Time to pause and evaluate bull health with the following chart analysis

Bitcoin

The Weekly chart of Bitcoin

Context and Transition

• Bitcoin spent eight months in a wide trading range during 2024
• Break above the range high completed a textbook measured move
• Early 2025 printed a double-top plus a powerful bear surprise bar that flipped bias to “always in short”
• Given that bear bar’s strength, a second leg lower or sideways looked likely
• Bears failed to extend the decline:
  • Big lower tail before the surprise bar exposed selling exhaustion
  • Price quickly re-entered the double-top zone and closed the breakout gap
  • Bears never seized clear control of the market
• The 12‑month moving average overlapped the 2024 breakout zone, creating a confluence support shelf

Shift Back to Long

• Q1 2025 saw a 30% drop from Q4 2024 highs, triggering institutional buy programs during re‑allocation
• A textbook High‑3 pattern formed, marking a technical reversal setup
• A strong bull bar closed above the 3‑month moving average and flipped bias to “always in long”
• Drawdown fully recovered; price entered a firm bull micro‑channel and printed a cup‑and‑handle
• Markets resist abrupt regime shifts; rallying straight from “always in short” to bull carries statistical edge
• First pullbacks in a fresh bull leg almost never reverse; odds favored continuation
• A tight sideways‑to‑down pause ended with a High‑2 buy signal two weeks ago
  

High‑2 Mechanics

• High‑2 acted as a legitimate entry trigger
• Follow‑through lacked vigor, but bulls held ground against expected Q2 institutional sellers
• Buying one tick above the previous all‑time high offered a higher‑probability entry than High‑2
• Bulls targeted a clear bull breakout

Bull Breakout and Targets

• Pre‑breakout probabilities stood at:
  • 60% chance to reach $120 000 before tagging June lows
  • 40% chance to hit $130 000 before testing those lows
• Last week’s price cleared the previous all‑time high with a strong breakout bar
• Bulls tested $123 000 this week as anticipated
• Breakouts often pause with a small second leg sideways to up
• Expected profit‑taking around $120 000–$123 000 sparked the pullback from the monthly measured move

Bad Follow‑Through

• This week delivered a weak follow‑through after the bull breakout
• The IBIT ETF closed below last week’s close and near the weekly low
• That outcome undermines bull momentum
• Price will likely drift into a trading range over the next ten weekly bars
• That scenario reduces the odds of reaching the cup‑and‑handle’s measured move

What Now

• The market cycle remains in a tight bull channel
• A bull micro‑channel now shows two bull bars and two dojis, raising pullback odds over coming weeks
• Two open gaps—body gap and breakout gap—favor bulls while they remain unfilled
• Bears need a clear bear bar next week to increase their chances of testing closing gaps and eventually reach June lows

The Daily chart of Bitcoin

Trading Range

• The daily chart spent almost two months in a defined trading range
• Bears failed on two breakdown attempts
• Bulls executed a decisive breakout on their third attempt

Bull Breakout

• Last week’s breakout looked strong for bulls, implying a high probability of second‑leg gains
• Monday’s price action hit the measured‑move target based on the prior range’s height

Measured Move Is Resistance

• Rally stalled at both the daily measured‑move target and a coinciding monthly target
• That reaction aligns with typical profit‑taking at major measured moves

Time for Bulls to Assess Strength

• Bulls reached their target on Monday and now gauge market response
• If bears fail to shift bias to “always in short” this week, bulls will re-enter positions
• Renewed buying would treat sideways trading as a simple pullback inside a bull channel

Scenarios

• A tight trading range balances odds between bulls and bears
• A 50% retracement without quick recovery would lower odds of a strong bull trend
• Bulls would then adopt a buy‑low/sell‑high approach, reducing chances of hitting weekly targets
• Bears must flip bias to “always in short” by:
  
  • Filling bearish gaps and closing current bull gaps
  • Closing and consolidating below the 50% pullback level
  • Triggering a bear breakout via strong bars or a series of bears
  • Closing below $112 000 to confirm downward control

Conclusion

• Bulls lost short‑term momentum, yet bears have not seized control
• The bull breakout still holds potential to evolve into a sustained bull channel
• Success depends on limited lateral consolidation and failure of bear milestones

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