Market Video Report: Bitcoin
Duration 6 mins. AI is voicing Josep Capo’s original script.
Summary
Bitcoin has finally tested the 100,000 level and the 365-day moving average, attempting to break down from a trading range that’s been forming since July. The line in the sand is evident, making this a prime moment to explore various scenarios for trading opportunities.
Transcript
Hey everyone, welcome to this week’s video analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly and daily charts. My name is Josep Capo, Price Action Trader and author for the Brooks Trading Course website.
On the weekly chart, Bitcoin has been trading sideways since July. That’s about 16 weeks now, which is a solid stretch of time where the price has just been balancing out. What that means is we’ve formed a clear trading range—a zone where neither the bulls nor the bears are really in control. It’s like a tug-of-war with no winner yet.
If you’re trying to figure out if this setup is “always in long” or “always in short,” I’d say we’re probably just one more bearish week away from tipping into “always in short.” But that’s no guarantee it’ll head down. In trading ranges, when one side starts looking dominant, traders often bet against it because about 80% of those strong moves in one direction end up failing inside a range. It’s a classic trap that keeps things bouncing back and forth.
Right now, we’re possibly on the fourth attempt to break out of this trading range. Let me count them for you: if we consider that initial bull breakout as the first one—and I think we should—then we’ve had a second, a third, and now this bearish push as the fourth. The key point here is that the fourth breakout attempt actually has better odds of succeeding than the third, and a fifth would have even higher chances than the fourth.
We’re sitting at some key support levels on this weekly view. There’s the big round number of 100,000, which always grabs attention because it’s psychologically extremely significant, and then there’s the 365-day moving average acting as another layer of support. On top of that, the price has formed a double bottom with the June low, and in the latest bear leg, we’ve got a wedge bottom pattern. These are all signs that point toward a possible bull reversal from here.
As a bull, I’d feel comfortable building buys around these levels. Sure, you have to accept that a breakdown is possible, but based on what we’re seeing now, the bears just don’t look strong enough to force it. If a breakdown does happen, where would bulls place their stop loss? Probably based on a measured move down from the last bear leg’s high and low, or maybe even the whole range. But honestly, bulls aren’t expecting the price to keep piling on more bear bars and closing lower. If things start looking weak, they’d likely exit early if they get the chance, rather than waiting for the stop to get hit.
For the bulls’ first target, I’d eyeball around 115,000. That’s where some trapped bulls from that high 1 bought in, and it’s also smack in the middle of the trading range, so it makes sense as a logical spot to take profits. If next week closes with a solid bull bar, you can bet it’ll get bought up, with traders aiming for at least a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio, or maybe even stretching for 2:1. It’s a measured approach that fits the range dynamics.
On the bear side, they’re gunning for a clean breakdown below that 100,000 level and the moving average, with strong follow-through to back it up. That could open the door to testing the 75,000 area. Or, they’d also love to see another leg up that fails to make new highs, creating a lower high major trend reversal. That setup would give them a much better spot to make decisions and enter shorts with confidence. So far, though, since the all-time highs, we haven’t seen any strong bear signal bars. That makes it tough to jump in short just based on those— you need conviction, and it’s not there yet.
Now, let’s zoom in to the daily chart for a closer look at the recent action. The week kicked off with a strong bear breakout from a trading range. We’re talking two big, convincing bear bars right out of the gate. That first one was tricky to sell, though—we were still inside the broader range, close to a potential double bottom, and Tuesday’s bar had this prominent tail at the bottom, landing right on those higher-timeframe supports like the 365-day moving average and the 100,000 round number. It’s like the market was testing the floor but not quite breaking it.
After that breakout, we got a bull reversal bar popping up from those supports. That’s something bears don’t like to see. They prefer weak bull reversals, especially at support, because it shows the vulnerability of the zone. But here, the support held firm so far—not a great sign for the sellers.
Bears did manage a low 1 short on Thursday, but it wasn’t a stellar entry because they couldn’t sustain selling after the breakout, which leaves doubts. Then Friday came in as a bull reversal, trapping those Thursday bears either at the close or the low of the bar.
So, what should you as a trader do in this setup? Well, it’s clear the bear pressure has ramped up with that breakout, but structuring a bear trade right at these supports is risky. The low 1 short fizzled, and bulls are digging in at those major levels. I think bears might prefer to sell higher, say around the 30-day exponential moving average, if bulls push up there without much conviction. Or, they could keep pressing downside until the market confirms a tight bear channel— that would shift the odds in their favor.
For the bulls, the game plan is to hold above support and then buy if the price flips to “always in long.” From there, expect a couple of legs sideways to up, potentially expanding into a larger trading range. It’s about patience and waiting for the setup to align.
Before we conclude, I’d like to invite you to explore our daily end-of-day Bitcoin reports. We are publishing three end-of-day reports detailing intraday price movements each week. You can find them in the Brooks Trading Course Blog. If you’re looking for more Bitcoin-related price action material and you have more suggestions, please take your time to comment—your support means a lot. Please give your feedback either in the comments section of this YouTube video or the comments section of the blogs themselves.
Market analysis reports archive
You can access all weekend reports on the Market Analysis page.
very nice analysis, thanks!
Thank you Yao!