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E-mini Bears Trying to Form Low 2

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Trading Update: Wednesday October 22, 2025

S&P E-mini market analysis

E-mini daily chart

  • The E-mini formed a weak bear reversal bar following Monday’s bull breakout. This is disappointing for bears who were hoping for a strong bear reversal bar and a clear second entry short following yesterday’s action.
  • The Bears are hopeful that today will form a strong entry bar after yesterday’s Low 2.
  • The reality is that the October 10th bear breakout is likely to get a more credible 2nd leg down.
  • Because of the reasons mentioned above, the odds favor sellers above and the market testing back down to the October 10th close.
  • The October 10th bear breakout is more than four standard deviations away from the mean (average bar size). This increased the odds of the bear breakout getting a deep pullback. However, because the breakout is a major bear surprise late in a bull channel, the odds favor the bears selling the pullback of the bear breakout and making money.
  • Overall, the odds favor sellers above the October 10th  breakout and the market getting back down to the October 10th close at a minimum.

E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

  • The market gapped up on the open and formed a strong bear reversal bar with bar one closing the gap.
  • Bar 1 open is the high of the day. This increases the odds that bar 1 will not be the day’s high and that the market will surpass it.
  • Bar 2 is a bull reversal bar, which increases the odds of a 2nd leg up and test above bar 1.
  • So far today, it is a trading range open. This increases the odds of sideways trading on the open.
  • Most traders should wait 6-12 bars before placing a trade because there is an 80% chance of a trading range opening and not a trend from the open.
  • As of bar 28, the market has formed three large legs down with bars 2, 16, and 25. Due to the buying pressure up to bar 18, the odds favored the reversal down to bar 25 as a bear leg within a trading range, with buyers present below. This meant that bulls would likely look to buy below bar 16, betting on buyers and a test back to the bar 19 close.
  • As of bar 28, the odds favor a test of the bar 19 high, which is the top of the third leg in the bear channel.

Yesterday’s E-mini setups

SP500 E-mini 5-Min Market Consolidation below ATH Trading Range Day

Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.

Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action

SP500 E-mini 5-Min Opening Triangle Breakout into Bear Channel Then Pullback

Richard created the SP500 E-mini chart – Al travelling.

E-mini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

  • Referring to Wednesday 10/22 price action. Would it be better to view the bear leg to 16 as a breakout of the range (yesterday’s range) and reset the leg count? So the breakout to bar 16 would become a new leg 1 of the new breakout, making the rally to 19 a breakout pullback.

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