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E-mini Year-end Magnet Trade in Play

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Trading Update: Tuesday December 23, 2025

S&P E-mini market analysis

E-mini daily chart

  • The E-mini daily chart printed a strong bull breakout bar today, closing near its high and above the prior ATH. This increases the probability of continued buying and at least a second leg up.
  • Bulls want follow-through at the top of the broader trading range to set up a year-end test of 7000/7100 big round number.
  • The Santa Claus rally window (last five trading days of December plus the first two of January) is often cited as a period with better-than-average returns, historically around +1.3% on average but more usually 1% for the S&P.
  • Historically, the Santa window tends to have positive seasonality, which can reinforce the ‘probe higher’ bull case even if intraday PA remains range-like.”
  • Measured-move traders also have a clear magnet: a Leg 1 = Leg 2 projection using the bull leg from 11/21 → 11/28, anchored off the 12/17 wedge-bottom low, targets roughly ~7100 confluent with the 7100 Big Round Number year end target for some managers.

E-mini 5-minute chart – What happened today

  • Strong bull breakout bar double bottom at trading range low with consistent follow through signaled bull pressure, first trading range breakout failed – open followed TR rules with early failed moves.
  • Bears failed on the downside and a micro DB / reversal formed from the lower range.
  • Bulls achieved a successful second BO and transitioned into spike-and-channel.
  • The first EMA test was bought and price shifted into a trending TR near the highs.

What to expect tomorrow

  • After the tight trading range close today near the highs today, market is in breakout mode.
  • Breakouts, especially after a 20 bar + continued trading range ( endless pullback) can break either way because both sides see a good case:
    • Bulls see acceptance above the hourly BO point (~6936) and want continuation.
    • Bears see a stretched spike + tight range and want at least a pullback to the mean (EMA) or a test of support.
  • This environment produces “false starts” because early breakouts trigger the opposing side’s best entries (profit-taking, fades, and stop entries).
  • Given holiday liquidity and year end dynamics selling pressure can produce sudden and deeper pullbacks despite the strong bull spike market saw today.

1. Most likely Bull scenario tomorrow

  • Early test yesterday’s high – fail once – pull back to /EMA/ mid trading range – second attempt bull push
  • If pullback is shallow, bull signals are clean and holds above yesterday’s breakout point bulls see continuation.

2. Bull continuation: Break and hold above yesterday’s high (clean follow-through)

  • Consecutive strong bull closes breaking above yesterday’s high with limited overlap.
  • Breakout, brief pause – measured-move style push.
  • Bulls will see continuation if bears cannot create consecutive strong bear bars; pullbacks are one-legged/ brief and quickly bought.

3. Pullback/retest: Breakdown from the tight range first to test hourly breakout point ~$6936

  • Break below the tight range / opening range with follow-through (at least two strong consecutive bear closes)
  • Bear pressure/ rotation down toward hourly BO point
  • Inflection point
    • If price holds higher low at or above the breakout point bulls see the opportunity try again to break yesterday’s high.
    • If breakout point fails with follow-through: increases odds the move becomes a failed breakout and rotates deeper back into the prior range and seeks yesterday’s low and possibly the weekend bull gap.

Today’s S&P E-mini chart price action

E-mini Trading Range Bull Breakout - Spike and Channel

Jed created the SP500 E-mini chart – Richard travelling.

See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Trading Course trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

    • Hi Angela,
      Thank you.
      Of course, a measured-move style push here means that when price breaks out of a tight range it often moves with a defined objective – normally one of 3 types: a) a Leg 1 = Leg 2 target ( traditionally an ABCD move – Leg 1 is the initial impulse – measure this and project the same distance from the pullback low for Leg 2 b) a measured move of the range price is breaking out from or c) a measured move of the flag breakout point, Al’s spike and channel measured move. Measured moves typically have consecutive trend bars, little overlap and small pullbacks – it breaks minor highs – pauses then continues until the target is reached. Then there often follows another trading range or a 2 legged pullback once the target is reached. Hope this helps to clarify. 🙂

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