Emini Bears Want Break Below Moving Average

Trading Update: Wednesday July 16, 2025

S&P E-mini market analysis

E-mini daily chart

• The Emini yesterday formed a strong bear bar closing on its low. This is a strong enough surprise that the odds are we’ll probably get an attempt at at least a small second leg down.
• The odds are the first reversal up is likely to fail, which means today we’ll probably find sellers around the midpoint of yesterday’s bar if we get there.
• The market has been away from the moving average for so many bars that the odds are we’re probably going to reach the moving average fairly soon.
• Because the market’s been in a tight bull channel, the odds are against yesterday’s bar, leading to a strong major sell-off for the Bears.
• More likely, whatever sell-off we get will be a leg in a trading range and lead to more trading range price action.
• The bears have magnets below, such as the moving average and the June 11^th breakout point high.
• While the bulls are hoping for higher prices, the reality is that with the market being at a new all-time high and going sideways for many bars above the moving average, chances are the market will have to reach the moving average before the bulls will have a chance at making the market go higher.
• The Bulls need to defend the moving average. If the market hesitates at the moving average, it will increase the risk that we end up going below the moving average and possibly drop further to the June 11th high or the June 23^rd low, the bottom of the most recent leg.

E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

• They gapped up on the open and rallied above yesterday’s bar at 77, a major lower high.
• Because the gap up was small, the odds were that the gap was going to close. And that’s what happened on the sell-off down to the eight low.
• The market ended up going sideways for the first 24 bars and formed a strong bear breakout on bar 22 with follow-through on 23.
• While the breakout on 22 and 23 was good for the Bears, it’s a very big breakout late in a Bear Channel. This increased the risk of profit-taking.
• Whenever you get big bars that are significantly bigger than the average, that increases the risk of a pullback. However, because the bars are big (such as 22), the odds typically favor a second leg down, and that’s what the Bears are hoping for.
• The Bears want a successful measuring gap below bar 18 after today’s bar 22. They’re hoping it leads to a measured move down.
• The bulls need to make the market go sideways and form a second entry buy.
• As at bar 24, it’s too early for the Bulls to be buying; it’s better for them to wait and see what kind of hesitation the Bulls can create first.

Yesterday’s E-mini setups

Brad created the SP500 E-mini charts – Al travelling.

Here are reasonable stop entry setups from yesterday. I show each buy entry bar with a green arrow and each sell entry bar with a red arrow. Buyers of both the Brooks Trading Course and Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns have access to a near 4-year library of more detailed explanations of swing trade setups (see Online Course/BTC Daily Setups). Encyclopedia members get current daily charts added to Encyclopedia.

My goal with these charts is to present an Always In perspective. If a trader was trying to be Always In or nearly Always In a position all day, and he was not currently in the market, these entries would be logical times for him to enter. These therefore are swing entries.

It is important to understand that most swing setups do not lead to swing trades. As soon as traders are disappointed, many exit. Those who exit prefer to get out with a small profit (scalp), but often have to exit with a small loss.

If the risk is too big for your account, you should wait for trades with less risk or trade an alternative market like the Micro E-mini.

Summary of today’s S&P E-mini price action

Brad created the SP500 E-mini charts – Al travelling.

E-mini end of day video review

Periodic end of day review videos will be moved to top of page when done.

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See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.

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Trading Room

Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed E-mini price action real-time each day in the Brooks Price Action trading room. We offer a 2 day free trial.

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Charts use Pacific Time

When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The E-mini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.

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