Trading Update: Wednesday April 26, 2023
S&P Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- The Emini sold off yesterday, closing below the past 17 bars. Yesterday’s bear breakout is a big enough surprise to lead to a 2nd leg down, probably.
- The bears want follow-through today, and the bulls want to prevent the bears from getting follow-through.
- If the bears get a follow-through bar today similar to yesterday’s close, the market could sell off quickly back to 4,000.
- While yesterday’s bar may be a bear trap, forcing bears to sell low in what will become a trading range, the first reversal up is probably limited.
- The first target for the bears is March 22nd high. The bears want to get a close below the March 22nd high.
- The bulls will try and defend the March 22nd breakout point high. They want the gap (March 22nd high) to stay open and for the market to lead to a measured move up from the March 13th high to the March 22nd high, which projects up to 4,300.
- At the moment, the upside is probably limited, and the market will probably get at least a small 2nd leg down. Traders will pay close attention to the follow-through today to see how eager the bears will be to sell after yesterday’s bear breakout.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is down 2 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The Globex market has gone sideways during the overnight hours; the U.S. session will probably have little to no gap on the open.
- As I often say, traders should expect a trading range on the open and wait for 6-12 bars.
- Most traders should wait for the opening swing to develop, which typically happens after the formation of a double top/bottom or a wedge top/bottom and begins before the end of the second hour.
- Because of yesterday’s strong bear breakout, traders should expect today to disappoint the bears. However, traders should also be open to the possibility of a bear trend, and if the bear begins to get strong consecutive bear trend bars on the open, they cannot be in denial.
Emini intraday market update
- The Emini sold off after going sideways for the first 8 bars on the open.
- While the selloff down to bar 12 was strong, it was a lower low major trend reversal (final flag).
- The rally up to 9:10 AM PT was substantial; however, it was the first major trendline break of yesterday’s strong bear trend day. This increased the odds of a deep pullback and formation of a trading range, which is what happened.
- As of 10:40 AM PT, the bears want the selloff to reach the low of the day. However, this is unlikely. More likely, the market is going to bounce and go sideways.
- Traders should pay attention to the open of the day as it will likely remain a magnet for the rest of the day.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The EURUSD sold off yesterday after testing the April 13th close; however, the bulls bought the close of yesterday’s bear bar.
- The channel up is tight and holding above the moving average (blue line). The bears need to develop more selling pressure and get closes below the moving average, or else bulls will continue to buy at the moving average.
- The bears have strong bear closes in the rally that begin in March. This is good for the bears and increases the odds that the bull rally up will evolve into a trading range soon.
- Overall, the bears are doing a good job of causing the market to move sideways. However, they need to do more.
- The bulls want to trap the bears and get an upside breakout; however, sideways is more likely.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day video review
Watch on YouTube: Brad Wolff Emini End of Day Review
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Al Brooks and other presenters talk about the detailed Emini price action real-time each day in the BrooksPriceAction.com trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When times are mentioned, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.