Trading Update: Tuesday March 29, 2022
Emini pre-open market analysis
Emini daily chart
- Emini bulls breaking above 4,600 with the Emini reaching the February high today and 4,600 round number during the Globex session
- So far, the bulls have a strong breakout since the March 14 low.
- The bulls are hopeful that this rally is strong enough to reach the all-time high, and the bulls may get there.
- Traders have to remember that the market is in a trading range, which means traders will expect disappointment soon.
- The bears are hopeful that the bulls will fail around the February high and that the bears will be able to get a micro double top that would be a part of a larger double top with the February high.
- The bears see the overall daily chart as a trading range, so they do not care if the market reaches the all-time high. The bears will still sell at the price level, betting on more trading range price action and possibly starting a bear trend.
- Overall, while the market is in a trading range, it is too early to sell. The current rally is too strong, so traders should wait for more selling pressure to develop.
Emini 5-minute chart and what to expect today
- Emini is up 35 points in the overnight Globex session.
- The bulls had a strong rally during the Globex session.
- The market will likely open up around the 4,600 price area, and will probably not go much higher today and will instead likely form a trading range during the day session.
- The market may test back to the February 2 high on the open, so traders should be aware of that price level
- Traders should expect a trading range open, and if not comfortable with limit orders, wait for a credible stop entry or strong breakout with follow-through.
Yesterday’s Emini setups
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
EURUSD Forex market trading strategies
EURUSD Forex daily chart
- The bears are currently giving up on the idea of a double top at the 3-month trading range low, which is why the daily chart has a big bull bar today.
- Currently, the odds favor a bull breakout above the March bear flag and a test of the 3-month trading range and the top of the large bear channel line.
- The bulls want today to close near its high, which would increase the odds of follow-through tomorrow.
- I have been saying that the bears needed to get follow-through after the March 21 double top stop entry, and while the bears had a tight channel, it was becoming difficult for the bears to stay short.
- This means that as the market was going down to March 28, the bear bars were getting weaker, which is the opposite of what a bear wants, which is why the bears gave up on the open of today.
- Overall, traders should expect a test of the March high and for the bulls to try and break above the March bear flag and try for a measured move up. The bulls need consecutive strong bull bars to convince traders that the market will reach the February high.
Summary of today’s S&P Emini futures price action and what to expect tomorrow
Al created the SP500 Emini charts.
End of day summary
- The bears had a gap up that led to a wedge bottom testing the moving average around 7:15 am.
- The market rallied back to the open of the day around 8:30 am, confirming that the market was likely forming a trading range.
- The market sold back off around 10:30 and formed a triangle nested inside a larger triangle, meaning breakout mode. The probability was close to 50%, although the odds would be slightly higher for the bulls with the gap up open.
- Next, the market rallied in a small pullback bull trend up until the close causing the day to close on its high.
- The three consecutive bull bars after 11:30 changed the character of the day from a trading range to a possible bull breakout of the trading range and measured move up. This was the point where bears were giving up on a potential failed bull breakout of the opening trading range.
See the weekly update for a discussion of the price action on the weekly chart and for what to expect going into next week.
Traders can see the end of the day bar-by-bar price action report by signing up for free at BrooksPriceAction.com. I talk about the detailed S&P Emini futures price action real-time throughout the day in the BrooksPriceAction.com on trading room days. We offer a 2 day free trial.
Charts use Pacific Time
When I mention time, it is USA Pacific Time. The Emini day session charts begin at 6:30 am PT and end at 1:15 pm PT which is 15 minutes after the NYSE closes. You can read background information on the market reports on the Market Update page.